A major new survey by the Policy Institute at King’s
College London, in partnership with Ipsos MORI and
the UK in a Changing
Europe, reveals what the public think will happen in the
Brexit negotiations, and the impact of leaving the EU on key
issues over the following five years:
-
44% of the public expect the UK to leave the EU in
March 2019 without a deal in place, 29% expect us to
leave with a deal and 7% think we will not leave the EU in
March.
-
Labour Remain supporters are particularly likely to
think we’re heading for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, with 54% seeing
this as the most likely outcome, while Conservative
Leave supporters are most likely to think we’ll leave with a
deal (53%).
-
Only 14% of the public expect Brexit to increase their
own standard of living in the next five years, with
31% expecting their standard of living to decrease. This is
an increase in the proportion of the public
expecting their standard of living to decrease, from 25% in
June 2016. 41% of Labour supporters and 58% of Lib Dem
supporters expect their living standards to decrease.
-
39% of the public expect the UK economic growth rate to
decrease as a result of Brexit, which is a balance of
very different views between Leave and Remain supporters: 64%
of Remain supporters expect Brexit to decrease growth rates,
compared with only 17% of Leave supporters.
- People are split on the impact of Brexit on the
quality of NHS services, with 34% expecting it to
decrease. The proportion of the public with this
expectation has doubled since 2016, when
only 17% thought Brexit would lead to a decline in the quality of
NHS services.
Professor Bobby Duffy, Director of the
Policy Institute, said: “There is little general optimism about
the outcome of the Brexit negotiations and the ongoing impact of
leaving the EU, particularly on living standards and economic
growth.
“But as with other aspects of our relationship with Europe, our
predictions reveal the huge divisions in the country – different
groups see the future very differently, with Conservative and
Leave supporters more optimistic that Brexit will have little
economic impact on the UK, while reducing EU immigration.
“There are, however, some signs of growing unease among the
public since we last asked these questions just before the EU
Referendum. There has been an increase in the proportion of
people expecting their own living standards to decline, and a
doubling of the proportion expecting the quality of services from
the NHS to decline, now a third of the public.”
Professor Anand Menon, Director of UK in a
Changing Europe, said: “As the Brexit endgame approaches, knowing
what the public wants and expects from the process is as
important as ever. These findings indicate that the British
people are coming to grasp some of the trade-offs involved in
leaving the European Union. What will be fascinating in the weeks
to come will be whether this carries over into attitudes on
whether Brexit itself remains an attractive proposition.”
