The United Kingdom is a country divided: alongside divisions
around class, place, age, a values divide is emerging which could
dramatically impact on politics in the years to come, a
comprehensive report on Brexit and public opinion reveals.
Nineteen months on from the EU referendum, the
report ‘Brexit and public
opinion’ by The UK in a Changing Europe,
underlines the divisions in UK society:
- The emergence of a values divide around differing attitudes
to diversity
- Brexit has created new political identities: Leavers and
Remainers view the world through prisms which shape their
receptiveness to evidence based arguments
- The generations are divided: 73% of 18-24 year olds voted
Remain; 60% of over 65s voted Leave. This division has grown even
more stark following the general election and is turning into a
political cleavage
- Brexit exposed the growing distinction between public
attitudes in towns and cities, which relates to their contrasting
economic trajectories: areas that experienced the most decline in
recent decades voted Leave; whereas areas of relative growth were
more likely to vote Remain
- Divisions exist between the individual nations of the UK over
fundamental constitutional questions
- Divisions are also apparent between party leaders and their
MPs.
On the day the report is being released (Wednesday 31 January)
The UK in a Changing Europe is holding a major conference
on Brexit and public
opinion which includes keynote speeches from Sir John
Curtice and , ’s former strategy director and
speechwriter.
The report highlights a potentially emergent divide. Those
who thought equal opportunities for ethnic minorities have gone
too far voted heavily for Leave; those who felt equal
opportunities have not gone far enough were much more likely to
have voted Remain. The report warns that the robust link between
views about ethnic equality and votes in the EU referendum could
be a sign of an emergent values divide in the UK.
Professor Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe,
said: “The referendum highlighted fundamental divisions in
British society and superimposed a leave-remain distinction over
them. This has the potential to profoundly disrupt out politics
in the years to come.
“There’s little evidence to support the prime minister’s
statement that ‘the country has come together after Brexit’.
Instead she is presiding over a divided and polarized nation.”
The 17 chapter, 56 page report is written by 27 academics and is
the most comprehensive and authoritative analysis of Brexit and
public opinion to date. It analyses the referendum, last year’s
general election, emerging Brexit identities and the public’s
views of the Brexit negotiations.
Authors make several arguments as to why it is highly unlikely
people will change their minds about the UK leaving the EU for
three reasons:
- people’s preferences about EU membership are tied up with
values, which are entrenched and unlikely to shift
- ‘confirmation bias’ leads Remainers and Leavers to discount
information that does not correspond with their values
- for many Leavers, the attraction of Brexit was about identity
politics more than economic calculus
Most of the academics who contributed to the report are part of
The UK in a Changing Europe, including John Curtice, Matthew
Goodwin, Sara Hobolt, Rob Ford, Anand Menon and Maria Sobolewska.
