Manufacturing order books were stable and close to a
30 year high in the three months to December, according to the
latest monthly CBI Industrial Trends Survey.
In the survey of 371 manufacturers, strong
overall order books were driven by Motor Vehicles and Transport
Equipment, and Mechanical Engineering sectors, although the
strength was broad-based with 14 out of 17
sub-sectors reporting that order books were above
normal. Export order books weakened slightly compared with
November’s record levels, but remained
strong.
Output growth was steady at a brisk pace in the
three months to December, at a rate that was far above the
long-run average.
However, respondents still expect output growth
to moderate over the next
quarter.
Manufacturers expect output prices to rise at
the fastest rate since June in the quarter ahead, while stock
adequacy deteriorated to below its long-run
average.
Anna Leach, CBI Head of Economic
Intelligence, said:
“As we head towards the end of 2017, UK
manufacturers’ total order books remain at a near 30 high, with
export order books remaining at their strongest since the
mid-1990s.
“While the lower level of sterling continues to
support exporters, cost pressures remain intense. Businesses will
expect to see the Government’s Industrial Strategy make rapid
progress next year to support manufacturing and the wider economy
in every corner of the UK.”
Key findings:
· 28%
of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal,
and 11% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +17%
(joint highest with last month and August 1988)
· 28%
of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 12%
said they were below normal, giving a balance of +16% well above
the long-run average of -18%
· 42%
of businesses said the volume of output over the past three
months was up, and 11% said it was down, giving a rounded balance
of +30% above the long-run average of +4%
·
Manufacturers expect output growth to slow in the coming quarter,
with 26% predicting volumes to increase, and 13% expecting a
decline, giving a balance of +13%
· 29%
of companies expect average selling prices to increase in the
coming three months, with 6% predicting a decline, giving a
balance of +23%
· 7%
of firms said their present stocks of finished goods are more
than adequate, whilst 10% said they were less than adequate,
giving a balance of -3%.
Notes to editor:
The survey was conducted between 22nd November and
12th December. 371 manufacturers responded.
