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Nine key sectors to be investigated by experts
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Move comes amid growing confusion around Government
studies
The Mayor of London, , today announced that he has
commissioned independent economic analysis of the impact of
different Brexit scenarios on Londoners’ jobs and prosperity.
The studies – to be published next month – come amid growing
confusion over the Government’s own economic analysis of Brexit.
Sadiq today criticised and , the Brexit secretary, for
their ‘chaotic’ approach to Brexit, which he warned was ‘putting
jobs and growth at risk’ in London.
The Mayor, who today returns from a six-day trade mission to
India and Pakistan, has commissioned analysis from independent
economic experts Cambridge Econometrics into the impact that
different Brexit scenarios will have on nine different sectors of
the economy in London and across the UK.
These include financial and professional services, the
construction and the hospitality sectors, and science and
technology.
The analysis will specifically look at the Brexit impact for key
indicators such as economic output and employment for London and
the UK. It will also pay attention to the fact that many people
working in other towns and cities across Britain are
employed by companies that anchor themselves in London in order
to do business globally.
In total, five scenarios will be modelled that illustrate the
range of possible outcomes of the UK’s future relationship with
the EU. These are:
- A ‘status quo’ scenario where the UK remains part of both of
the single market and customs union.
- A soft Brexit scenario where the UK remains part of the
single market, but not the customs union.
- Another soft Brexit scenario where the UK remains part of the
customs union, but not the single market.
- A hard Brexit scenario in which trade between the UK and the
EU falls under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules with a
two-year transition period from March 2019; and
- The same hard Brexit scenario but without a two-year
transition period.
Sadiq’s approach comes as the Government has failed to keep a
consistent line on whether sectoral analyses of the impact on
Brexit exist.
In the summer, Brexit secretary said that the Government
had conducted “nearly 60 sector analyses” on the impact of
Brexit. Then, last week, he provided the Exiting the European
Union Committee and the devolved administrations with 850 pages
of analysis that made no forecasts on its impact. Just two days
ago, he said that impact assessments did not exist.
The Mayor intends to publish the analysis in full in January, and
will use it as the basis for a plan to put to Government to
mitigate the worst impacts of Brexit on London’s economy.
The Mayor of London, said:
“The Government’s chaotic approach to Brexit is putting jobs and
growth at risk.
“It is outrageous that the Government either failed to properly
consider the impact of Brexit on Britain’s economy, or are
refusing to release their analysis. If it’s the former then I
question their competence. if it is the latter then I question
whether they have something to hide.
“We need to know the impact of different Brexit scenarios on our
economy in order to deliver a Brexit deal that protects jobs and
growth.
“I have commissioned this independent analysis to do exactly that
for London’s key sectors – and I will publish it in full.
“Once we know the likely impact of different scenarios we will
come forward with a plan for the Government to mitigate the worst
impacts of Brexit on London’s economy.
“The Government must change course and pursue a Brexit deal that
prioritises protecting jobs and our economy.”
Ben Gardiner, Director of Cambridge Econometrics, said: “We are
pleased to have been commissioned to undertake the Brexit impact
analysis. We firmly believe that modelling exercises such as ours
serve a useful purpose by providing a structure to aid thinking
and debate, providing some degree of clarity on what is otherwise
a very complex issue.”
ENDS
NOTES TO EDITORS:
The nine sectors that Cambridge Econometrics will investigate
are:
* Financial and
professional services
* Science
and technology
* Digital
technologies
* Life
sciences & Healthcare
* Creative
* Culture
* Food and
drink manufacturing
* Construction
* Hospitality
