Service Family Accommodation Liz McInnes (Heywood and Middleton)
(Lab) 1. What steps his Department is taking to improve
standards in service family accommodation. [909186] The
Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence (Mark
Lancaster) The provision of quality accommodation is at the
heart of the armed forces covenant. Around 94% of UK...Request free trial
Service Family Accommodation
-
(Heywood and Middleton)
(Lab)
1. What steps his Department is taking to improve standards
in service family accommodation. [909186]
-
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence
(Mark Lancaster)
The provision of quality accommodation is at the heart of
the armed forces covenant. Around 94% of UK service family
accommodation is at decent homes standard or above. Only
service family accommodation at those standards will be
allocated to new occupants. Since April 2016, around 14,500
kitchens, bathrooms, roofs, doors and windows, and some
10,000 new boilers, have been installed.
-
I thank the Minister for that response, but the armed
forces continuous attitude survey in 2016 showed a
significant drop in satisfaction among those living in
service family accommodation—there was a decrease of seven
percentage points, to just 50%. Can he assure the House
that a further drop in satisfaction will lead to urgent
action by the Department?
-
I can, but equally I am confident that, after the Secretary
of State’s intervention last year with CarillionAmey and
the introduction of the get well plan, we have seen a
significant improvement in satisfaction. That might not yet
have filtered down into the survey, but recent stats show
that the satisfaction rate on the service from
CarillionAmey has risen from 40% to 61%. We take this
matter very seriously, which is why I am keeping a close
eye on it and am determined that the services standard
should continue to improve.
-
Sir (Canterbury)
(Con)
I congratulate my hon. Friend on the progress that has been
made on the CarillionAmey contract. However, does he agree
that continuing to have service family accommodation—the
patch, as it is affectionately called—is critical in
providing a supportive arrangement for families when their
loved ones are away on operations or indeed extended
exercises?
-
What our families really want is choice and support, but I
can say to my hon. Friend that only recently I visited
Salisbury plain and saw in Tidworth, Larkhill and elsewhere
some 1,000 brand new service family accommodation homes
being built, so we take the matter very seriously. I am
confident that SFA, as it is referred to, will continue to
be provided, and some of those homes really are of an
absolute first-rate standard. However, this is about trying
to support the modern lifestyle of our service families and
the way in which they work.
-
(Barnsley Central)
(Lab)
21. A recent Army Families Federation survey on the future
of military housing showed that if SFA were reduced in
favour of a rental allowance, 30% of those surveyed would
definitely leave the Army and a further 46% would consider
leaving. What does the Minister think the Government’s
future accommodation model will do for retention rates?
[909206]
-
As I say, it is all about choice. If the hon. Gentleman
looks at that survey, he will see that the overwhelming
number of young soldiers, sailors and airmen who are yet to
be married support the model that we are proposing. We are
yet to make any firm decisions. We have reduced the number
of options to about seven, on which we are running a
business case, but I will keep the House fully informed as
we progress.
-
Mrs
(Berwick-upon-Tweed) (Con)
I welcome the Minister’s comments, but 40,000 members of
the armed forces have still not been consulted on the
future accommodation model. Among those who have, anxieties
remain about whether SFA is still a real option for their
families.
-
I refer back to my earlier comments. Only recently I
visited Salisbury plain, where we are building 1,000 new
SFA units of an excellent standard. SFA will remain an
option, but it is clear that one size does not fit all and
that, depending on where one is serving in the United
Kingdom, various options will have to be available.
-
(Caerphilly) (Lab)
Last November, the National Audit Office reported:
“Poor accommodation for service families is also affecting
the morale as well as the recruitment and retention of
service personnel.”
In other words, the situation is deplorable. My concern is
that only lip service is paid to those real worries. Surely
to goodness, warm words and tinkering are not enough. Real
action is needed. Why will not the Minister acknowledge
that and introduce real improvements quickly?
-
I am really disappointed to hear the hon. Gentleman’s
comments. Only last year, some £64 million was invested in
service family accommodation. Next year, we will invest
some £80 million in service family accommodation. Perhaps,
rather than sitting on the green Benches in the Chamber, he
would like to take up my offer to come to see some of the
new build we are providing for our families on Salisbury
plain.
-
I am waiting for the invitation.
-
Then here it is—so come rather than sitting on the green
Benches and constantly carping.
-
Mr (Kettering)
(Con)
When service personnel are on active service abroad, the
last thing they need is problems with their domestic
arrangements and accommodation at home, so will the
Minister ensure that, when service personnel are on active
deployment, the accommodation helpline works absolutely
perfectly for their partners at home?
-
My hon. Friend makes a valuable point. The point at which
spouses are overseas on deployment is absolutely the time
when we must focus on offering support to their families. I
will look very carefully at what he says.
-
(City of Chester)
(Lab)
Does the Minister agree that quality accommodation is
central to satisfaction and retention rates, and does he
therefore also agree that, having invested a large amount
in service accommodation at Dale barracks in Chester, it
would be a false economy to now close those barracks?
-
The driver, of course, for the better defence estate
strategy is military capability, but it is important that
we have good-quality accommodation. As the hon. Gentleman
knows, units will be relocated in his part of the world,
and we will look carefully at that.
NATO
-
(Eastbourne)
(Con)
2. What recent discussions he has had with his US
counterpart on NATO modernisation. [909187]
-
The Secretary of State for Defence (Sir Michael
Fallon)
I regularly discuss the need to reform NATO with my
counterparts, including the new US Secretary of Defence,
James Mattis, whom I met at the NATO defence ministerial
meeting last month. We want NATO to become a genuinely
adaptable alliance that is less bureaucratic, faster and
better at making decisions, and able to respond more
effectively to a wide range of threats, including cyber,
hybrid, and international terrorism.
-
I thank the Secretary of State for his response. With
NATO’s operation in Afghanistan still its most significant,
will my right hon. Friend join me in paying tribute to all
those who have served? Does he agree that this underlines
that NATO has the capability to combat terror and that it
will need to do that more?
-
Sir
We remember the service and sacrifice of those who fought
terrorism in Afghanistan. Our long-term commitment as part
of NATO’s Resolute Support mission remains crucial in
helping to build the capacity of the Afghan security forces
to defend their country. As my hon. Friend implies, it is
NATO that has the mandate, the operational experience and
the tools to help the fight against international
terrorism, and we will continue to push NATO to do more in
the middle east and north Africa.
-
(Halton) (Lab)
When the Secretary of State had discussions with his US
counterparts, did he talk about NATO’s capability to deal
with any threat from Russia in the Baltics and elsewhere?
-
Sir
This is the year in which NATO is deploying its enhanced
forward presence. I am proud that Britain is leading that
deployment in Estonia. The first wave of our troops will
leave for Estonia this week, and we will also be deploying
in Poland and Romania. The best way to reassure our NATO
allies and to deter any Russian aggression is for NATO to
stand up.
-
(Newbury) (Con)
It was made clear to us in a recent meeting of the NATO
Parliamentary Assembly that NATO still has a lot of allies
on the hill—on both sides of Congress. Does my right hon.
Friend agree that we need to help them to continue to make
their case by Europe stepping up to its commitment to spend
at least 2% of GDP on defence?
-
Sir
Absolutely. We all made that commitment—the United States,
ourselves and the rest of NATO—back at the Wales summit two
and a half years ago. We meet the NATO spending target, and
we continue to press our other allies to step up to the
plate and do so, too.
-
Mr (Huddersfield)
(Lab/Co-op)
May I push the Secretary of State to tell the House what
the Americans are saying about what size NATO should be?
That is about not just the percentage of GDP, but how big
NATO should be, how that compares with the strength of the
Russians, and what we would do if the Russians invaded
across some of the countries of Europe.
-
Mr Speaker
There were three questions, to be responded to with the
legendary pithiness of the Secretary of State.
-
Sir
The purpose of the alliance is defensive. Of course, the
Americans want all its members to make a fairer
contribution to its overall standing. The collective nature
of our defence has been underlined by the fact that article
5 has been invoked only once before, in favour of the
United States.
Armed Forces Covenant
-
(Rochdale) (Ind)
3. What steps his Department is taking to ensure the
effective delivery of the armed forces covenant. [909188]
-
(Halifax) (Lab)
15. What steps his Department is taking to ensure the
effective delivery of the armed forces covenant. [909200]
-
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence
(Mark Lancaster)
The 2016 covenant annual report clearly demonstrates the
progress that has been made since the covenant was
enshrined in law. Today, I am pleased to announce a new
initiative by the main broadband providers: personnel
posted to a location not covered by their current provider
can now cancel their broadband without incurring any
additional fees. I thank BT, EE, Plusnet, TalkTalk, Sky and
Virgin Media for their support.
-
Councillor McCarthy and Rochdale Council go above and
beyond when it comes to delivering the armed forces
covenant. This includes having a dedicated council
officer—Caen Matthews, a former veteran himself—to ensure
that those who fought for our country are properly looked
after in our town. Will the Minister congratulate Rochdale
Council on its success, and will he encourage other
councils to follow suit?
-
I heartily congratulate all those at Rochdale Borough
Council—and, indeed, the hon. Gentleman—and thank them for
their efforts. They have introduced measures that make a
real difference to the armed forces community, ranging from
providing practical support to members of our ex-services
community seeking social housing to the naming of streets
in recognition of local armed forces heroes. I commend the
council’s good example to colleagues across the country and
wish it well with its continuing work in support of the
covenant.
-
Some amazing work is undertaken by the British Legion and
other charities in my constituency and across the UK, but
the head of SSAFA, the Armed Forces Charity, has recently
warned that the
“Armed Forces Covenant lacks bite”.
Many local authorities seem to feel that complying with the
covenant is an option rather than an obligation. Will the
Minister tell us what the Government are doing to reinforce
the message of just how essential the covenant is?
-
I think that there is an acceptance across the House of
just how important the covenant is, and I am delighted that
every local authority in the United Kingdom—including four
in Northern Ireland—has now signed it. Last year, we sent
out a survey to try to establish best practice, and we are
now moving on to the next stage, in which we will look
carefully at those local authorities and other
organisations that are not doing what they said they would
do, and encourage them to remedy that. Ultimately we could
revoke the agreement with them, but I would like to think
that we would never get to that stage.
-
Mr (Rayleigh and
Wickford) (Con)
Will the Minister say a bit more about the corporate
covenant—the business element of the covenant through which
many companies make contributions to help service families
and personnel? There has been quite a lot of success in
that area.
-
There has. As my right hon. Friend knows, we have now
combined the community covenant and the corporate covenant
into the armed forces covenant. I hope that some 1,500
businesses will have signed the covenant by later this
week, and that is a testament to British business. It also
illustrates the fact that this is a two-way deal, in that
the skill sets that we give to our armed forces personnel
will ultimately help our businesses as well.
-
(Witney) (Con)
Will the Minister please tell the House how the Department
will spend the savings made through the cancellation of the
e-bluey contract to improve communications for serving
personnel?
-
Since its peak, the use of e-blueys has reduced by some
98%, meaning that an e-bluey can sometimes cost £17. The
service will cease from 1 April, but all the money saved
will be reinvested, and there is now nowhere overseas that
does not have access to the internet. However, we are
looking carefully at this to ensure that nobody will be
disadvantaged when the new service is introduced.
-
(Belfast East)
(DUP)
During a recent sitting of the Defence Committee, I shared
with the Minister correspondence from the then Health
Minister for Northern Ireland, now the leader of Sinn Féin,
who pointedly said:
“the Armed Forces Covenant is not in place here”.
What advice and guidance can the Minister give in the face
of such intransigence?
-
We all understand that the armed forces covenant applies
throughout the United Kingdom. I appreciate that there are
specific challenges in Northern Ireland, and I have already
said that I intend to make that a priority for this year.
To that end, I shall be visiting Northern Ireland shortly.
Royal Navy
-
(Plymouth, Sutton and
Devonport) (Con)
4. What operations the Royal Navy is currently engaged in.
[909189]
-
The Minister for the Armed Forces (Mike Penning)
In this year of the Royal Navy, the service is deployed at
home and around the globe 365 days a year, protecting
national interests and promoting our prosperity. Whether
maintaining our continuous at-sea deterrent, providing
reassurance to British overseas territories or conducting
counter-piracy and counter-narcotics patrols, we will be
there when we are needed.
-
Given that the Ministry of Defence has confirmed that
Plymouth will be the centre for the Royal Marines, has my
right hon. Friend considered base-porting all the Type 23s
in Devonport?
-
We will look carefully at this as the new ships come on
stream and as we spend £63 billion on the Royal Navy in the
next few years. We will ensure that Devonport gets a very
good look-in.
-
Mr (North Durham)
(Lab)
I am not sure whether the Minister mentioned this, but one
of the Royal Navy’s key roles is to meet NATO commitments
to protect not just this country but our allies. In that
context, will he say whether the new Type 31 frigate will
actually be able to meet those NATO commitments?
-
I am sure that, when the Type 23 frigate comes in, it
certainly will—[Interruption.] Type 31; I apologise. We
have extensive NATO commitments around the world: HMS Ocean
is just returning from six months in the Gulf and will be
in Gibraltar soon; and HMS Daring is down off the strait of
Hormuz. As for HMS Dragon, I was woken in the early hours
because one of our civilian yachts was in distress with a
crew of 14, some of whom were injured, and that Type 45
sailed 500 miles to rescue them. That is exactly what our
Navy is for.
-
(Harrow East)
(Con)
22. The role of the Royal Navy will clearly be even more
important in the future, so will the Minister update the
House on exactly how many ships will be bought and what
type of ships they will be? [909207]
-
We will have new frigates, new submarines, new aircraft
carriers, new patrol vessels, and new aircraft to support
them—£63 billion of expenditure in the year of the Navy and
going forward.
-
(Leicester East)
(Lab)
The Royal Navy is at the forefront of tackling the
migration crisis in the Mediterranean by training the
Libyan coastguard. Is it now allowed to enter Libyan
waters, as opposed to remaining in international waters,
because that is the way to stop the people traffickers
sending boats in the first place?
-
The right hon. Gentleman is absolutely right. That is
exactly what we have been pressing for along with our
coalition colleagues for some time. We have been training
the coastguard, and we want to do more, but we cannot enter
that area at the moment.
-
(North Wiltshire)
(Con)
For some two decades, NATO’s focus has been largely
land-based, particularly in Afghanistan, Iraq and other
such hot and dusty places. However, we now acknowledge that
the threat will increasingly come in the north Atlantic and
Arctic, particularly with the reinvention of the Russian
“Bastion” concept, and the Royal Navy and NATO will
increasingly have to turn their attention back to that area
of threat.
-
We would all agree that the Royal Navy is capable of doing
exactly what we ask it to do. As we are now turning back to
eastern Europe, which we thought we had turned away from,
with our land and air defences, that is exactly what the
Royal Navy will be doing elsewhere.
-
(Dunfermline and
West Fife) (SNP)
We have Royal Navy Astute-class submarines that are too
slow to keep up with US carriers. We have no maritime
patrol aircraft and await a contract to be signed. We are
waiting for the Type 26 contract to be signed and there is
also still no sign of the shipbuilding strategy. At a time
when Russian incursions into our waters are at cold war
levels, does the Minister agree that it is time for the
Scottish people to take decisions on how to defend their
country?
-
If the Scottish people want their armed forces to be run
down and demoralised, they should listen to what the hon.
Gentleman just said.
-
(South West
Wiltshire) (Con)
The Royal Navy has run EUNAVFOR Operation Atalanta
successfully for many years. Does my right hon. Friend
agree that we should continue to usefully co-operate with
our European neighbours on such things after we leave the
European Union?
-
We are leaving the European Union; we are not leaving
Europe. We will continue to consider all the work that we
can do with our European friends.
-
Brendan O’Hara (Argyll and Bute) (SNP)
Last week, there were reports of increased activity in the
number of ships moving unchecked through UK waters having
deliberately deactivated their tracking system. On one
occasion, a Cypriot ship called in at Algeria and then
moored off the coast of Islay in my constituency. With that
increased level of suspicious activity and Scotland’s
proximity to the high north and Arctic, does the Minister
believe that a sufficient number of large surface ships are
based in Scotland to meet that threat?
-
The ships do not have to be based in Scotland—even though
an extensive number of ships are based in Scotland—to
protect Scotland and the United Kingdom. They are at sea,
where they are doing exactly what they should be doing.
-
Brendan O’Hara
How can the Minister say that ships do not need to be based
in Scotland to protect Scotland when the world’s hotspot is
the high north and Arctic? Let me ask this again: does the
Minister think that having no large Royal Navy surface
ships based in Scotland is the best way to protect
Scotland, and to meet our obligations to our Nordic
neighbours and allies in the high north?
-
All our submarines, including those with the nuclear
deterrent, which the Scottish National party wants to get
rid of, are based in Scotland. Ships at sea is what we
need, not ships hiding in ports.
Veterans: Civilian Workforce
-
(Newcastle upon Tyne
Central) (Lab)
5. What assessment he has made of the adequacy of support
available to veterans entering the civilian workforce.
[909190]
-
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence
(Mark Lancaster)
The Department’s career transition partnership provides a
robust and effective system to support service personnel
entering the civilian workforce. The CTP provides
one-to-one advice and guidance, and training and employment
opportunities to about 15,000 service personnel each year.
-
It is entirely unacceptable that the unemployment rate for
veterans should be a third higher than that for
non-veterans. Service personnel have told me that they
might find it difficult to translate their important
experience on the battlefield into the softer skills that
industry requires today, such as teamwork, management and
communication skills. What is the Minister specifically
doing to address that point?
-
I have no idea where the hon. Lady gets her facts from and
I am slightly worried that we seem to be talking veterans
down again. As a result of the CTP, some 85% of our service
personnel find employment within six months—some 10% higher
than the figure for the UK population as a whole.
-
(Pendle)
(Con)
Service leavers have been highly trained and possess highly
transferable skills which add value to any company in the
civilian world. What more can be done to ensure that
civilian employers understand the value of former service
personnel?
-
This is exactly where the armed forces covenant comes in
and it shows why we must be so careful in this House when
we seem determined sometimes to talk our veterans down. The
sorts of skill sets that they can bring to civilian
companies are very valuable, and this is something we
absolutely enforce now that some 95% of our recruits join
an apprenticeship scheme.
-
(Merthyr Tydfil and
Rhymney) (Lab)
Our veterans are some of the most hard-working, dedicated
and experienced men and women any employer could ask for,
yet many of us have heard troubling stories of
discrimination against former servicemen and women in the
jobs market. Does the Minister agree with the Labour party
that we should act to make discrimination against the
forces community illegal, in order to protect our veterans
and service personnel from any prejudice they may face?
-
I welcome the hon. Gentleman to the Dispatch Box, and could
not agree more with his opening comments—perhaps he needs
to educate some of his colleagues about that. This is
precisely why we have the armed forces covenant. At this
early stage, we are trying through that mechanism to ensure
that the value of our veterans is fully understood by wider
society.
NATO Spending Target
-
(Mid Worcestershire)
(Con)
6. What recent discussions he has had with his
international counterparts on NATO’s 2% GDP spending
target. [909191]
-
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence
(Harriett Baldwin)
Ministers have regular discussions with international
counterparts on NATO’s 2% of GDP spending target. It is
important that all NATO allies meet the 2% commitment they
made at the Wales summit in 2014.
-
Will the Minister name which NATO allies do not currently
spend 2% of GDP on defence? What reasons or excuses have
they given for that?
-
Mr Speaker
Subject to the constraints of brevity, Minister.
-
Listing the 23 that do not spend 2% would take too long,
but I reassure my hon. Friend that the five that do meet
the target are the United States, the UK, Poland, Greece
and Estonia. I am sure he can deduce from that the
absentees.
-
(Bridgend) (Lab)
23. Germany currently spends 1.23% of GDP—€36 billion —on
defence and to spend 2% it would need almost to double
that, to €60 billion. Does the Minister appreciate that a
rearmed Germany would give concern not only to some of its
neighbours, but to Russia, thus potentially increasing the
difficulties we face with tensions on the Russian border?
[909208]
-
With the greatest respect, we think it is incredibly
important that all NATO members, who share joint
responsibility for the defence of the alliance, committed
at the NATO conference in Wales in 2014 to spend 2% of GDP.
We welcome the fact that eight further countries are now on
a clear trajectory to meet that target, and Ministers from
across all Departments continue to have discussions to
encourage them to reach it.
-
Mr (Wellingborough)
(Con)
25. I dissociate myself from the remarks made by the hon.
Member for Bridgend (Mrs Moon); that was an extraordinary
statement about Germany.Since you have been here, Mr
Speaker, how many Ministers have come to the Dispatch Box
to say exactly the same thing—that we are encouraging other
NATO members to meet the target? Some of our European
partners take the whole thing for granted in the knowledge
that we and the Americans pick up the bill. What are we
actually going to do about it to get them to pay what they
should pay? [909210]
-
I reassure my hon. Friend that there has been progress.
Five countries now meet the 2% target, up from three in
2014; 10 countries now meet the 20% pledge on major
equipment and research; and the cuts to defence spending
overall have been halted. I am sure, though, that everyone
would agree with the sentiment he expressed: we cannot
reiterate too often that we hope everyone will reach the 2%
pledge soon.
-
(Leeds North East) (Lab)
Last month, the International Institute for Strategic
Studies concluded that the Government have in fact missed
the 2% NATO defence spending target, and that they would
have missed it by even more had they not included budgetary
headings, such as pensions, which do not contribute to our
defence capabilities and were not included when Labour was
in government. Is it not time that we went back to the
criteria used for defence spending when the Labour party
was in power so that we may give our armed forces the
resources they need?
-
Well, honestly, I wonder whether the hon. Gentleman has
read the Defence Committee’s report, which
“commends the UK Government’s commitment to UK defence and
finds that its accounting criteria fall firmly within
existing NATO guidelines”—
as does NATO itself. It would be worrying if we were to
follow his party leader, who wants to see cuts to defence
spending, the abandonment of our NATO allies and the
scrapping of the nuclear deterrent.
-
(New Forest East)
(Con)
May I helpfully suggest to the Minister that one way she
could avoid these arguments about whether we have or have
not scraped over the 2% line is to recognise that the last
time we faced threats like those we face today was the
1980s, when we used to spend between 4.5% and 5% of GDP on
defence? Let us settle for 3% so that we can avoid this
sort of argument.
-
I appreciate my right hon. Friend’s campaign. We are proud
of the fact that we are spending substantially more than
the 2% target; that we have a growing defence budget for
the first time in many years; and that we are on track to
have a £178 billion equipment plan over the next decade.
Daesh
-
(Aldridge-Brownhills)
(Con)
7. What recent assessment he has made of progress in the
international campaign to tackle Daesh. [909192]
-
Ms (Ochil and
South Perthshire) (SNP)
14. What recent progress has been made on the international
campaign against Daesh. [909199]
-
(Northampton South)
(Con)
18. What recent assessment he has made of progress in the
international campaign to tackle Daesh. [909203]
-
The Secretary of State for Defence (Sir Michael
Fallon)
Iraqi forces continue to make good progress against Daesh.
East Mosul was freed in January; west Mosul operations are
on track. Yesterday, RAF Typhoons supported the Iraqi
forces in Mosul by demolishing a Daesh base. Syrian
Democratic Forces are less than 10 km from Daesh’s
stronghold in Raqqa, backed by RAF strikes, including one
yesterday on a large Daesh headquarters.
-
Given the growing success in Iraq, will my right hon.
Friend confirm that British forces and the coalition will
continue to maintain pressure on Daesh in Syria and develop
plans to liberate its other HQ in Raqqa?
-
Sir
Yes, we need to keep up the pressure on both. With
coalition help, Syrian Democratic Forces are making good
progress in operations to isolate Raqqa. Senior coalition
officers, including some from the UK, are now working on
how the coalition might best support the liberation of
Raqqa. They are visiting coalition sites in northern Syria
as needed to co-ordinate coalition support and to engage
partner forces.
-
Ms Ahmed-Sheikh
There have been recent reports from Iraq of mass graves
being uncovered in territory formerly held by Daesh,
including the discovery of 4,000 bodies at al-Khasfa, near
Mosul. What support is the Ministry of Defence offering the
Iraqi Government to ensure that the foul perpetrators are
brought to justice swiftly?
-
Sir
Yes, in the counter-Daesh coalition we are working to see
how we can accumulate the evidence so that those from Daesh
who may have committed the most heinous of crimes can
properly be brought to justice, either in Iraq or, indeed,
elsewhere.
-
Will my right hon. Friend update the House on how the
coalition is monitoring the dispersal of Daesh fighters
from Iraq who may be moving to other theatres?
-
Sir
We work with other countries in the region to co-ordinate
efforts to manage the threat posed by the dispersal of
foreign fighters from Iraq and Syria. Around 30,000 to
40,000 extremists from around the world have travelled to
Syria and Iraq since 2011. Many will be killed in combat or
will relocate to other Daesh-held areas. Our current
assessment is that a large-scale dispersal is unlikely.
-
(Aberdeen South)
(SNP)
20. Independent monitors report that this month, in the
space of one week, the international coalition killed as
many as 370 civilians in air strikes in Mosul. Has the
Secretary of State investigated those claims, and what
assurances can he give us that UK air strikes will not
involve civilian deaths in Mosul? [909205]
-
Sir
Let me make it very clear that the Royal Air Force, in its
precision air strikes, makes every effort to minimise the
risk of civilian casualties. We work very closely with
organisations such as Airwars. Where there are allegations
that civilians have died as a result of coalition air
strikes, we want those allegations fully investigated.
-
(Filton and Bradley
Stoke) (Con)
Will my right hon. Friend reassure the House that we are
doing everything possible to help local indigenous forces
on the ground with the liberation of Mosul and the defeat
of Daesh, not only in relation to equipment and ammunition,
but with regard to access to medical care, protective
equipment such as helmets and body armour, and getting the
right supplies and expertise for their wounded?
-
Sir
Let me give my hon. Friend that assurance. I am proud that
British forces have trained nearly 40,000 Iraqi and Kurdish
troops over the past couple of years. Much of that training
has been devoted to reducing the number of casualties that
those troops are likely to have to face in operations in
the Euphrates river valley and operations to liberate
Mosul, and is exactly along the lines that he suggests.
-
(Stoke-on-Trent North)
(Lab)
We have obviously seen significant success in Mosul in
recent months, and I am sure that the whole House joins me
in sending our prayers and gratitude to those serving in
our forces, but can you tell us what lessons we are
learning from our success in Mosul, so that we can apply
them effectively to the battle in Raqqa?
-
Mr Speaker
I cannot, but hopefully the Secretary of State can.
-
Sir
I shall do my best, Mr Speaker. The campaign in Mosul is
particularly complicated. West Mosul, in particular, is a
very densely urban area—it is twice the density of east
Mosul—so precision strikes in support of ground forces are
all the more difficult for coalition aircraft, but as the
campaign goes on, the use of precision air power and the
training that the Iraqi forces have received make it more
and more likely that they will, in the end, be successful,
both in Iraq and, later on, in Syria.
-
Sir (New Forest West)
(Con)
What can be done to ensure that liberated Sunni communities
can be embraced by the political economy of Iraq?
-
Sir
My right hon. Friend is absolutely right that we need to
stabilise these areas as quickly as possible—again, not
simply by giving them access to essential services, but by
encouraging a process of political reconciliation that
ensures that in the Sunni areas, particularly in the
Nineveh and Anbar provinces, the Sunnis feel that they have
a sufficient stake in the future development of Iraq. I
have made that point to the Prime Minister of Iraq and its
President, and to the coalition commanders.
-
(Carshalton and Wallington)
(LD)
Have the UK Government received any requests from their
allies in the fight against Daesh to deploy ground troops
in and around Raqqa? Can the Secretary of State confirm
that, if that request came in, Parliament would have an
opportunity to vote on the matter?
-
Sir
I have been clear with the House that we are not committing
combat troops to Syria. I referred to the presence there of
some coalition commanders, who have been assessing the
situation on the ground, but we are not committing combat
troops to the fight in Syria, and if we were to do so, of
course we would come back to Parliament.
-
(Preseli Pembrokeshire)
(Con)
Will my right hon. Friend confirm the importance that we
place on our defence co-operation with the Egyptian
Government, and pledge further support to Egypt as it seeks
to contain the Daesh threat in north Africa and Sinai?
-
Sir
Yes, I can confirm that. I met General Hegazy, the chief of
the defence staff of Egypt, on his recent visit to this
country. Of course, Egypt has a big part to play in
ensuring that the different factions and loyalties in Libya
can be brought together for a political settlement in that
country.
-
(Llanelli) (Lab)
On my recent visit to Cyprus, I was privileged to meet the
dedicated RAF crews who work night and day to keep up the
fight against Daesh in Iraq and Syria. I am concerned that
there is currently no specific medal to recognise the
dedication and bravery of the servicemen and women on
Operation Shader. In doing their duty, these men and women
are protecting UK citizens from the threat posed by Daesh
as well as defending civilians in the region. Will the
Secretary of State now commit to recognising their service
with a specific Operation Shader medal?
-
Sir
I am glad that the hon. Lady had a successful visit to our
forces in Cyprus. I am sure that the whole House will join
her in recognising and thanking our brave servicemen and
women, who have contributed tirelessly to this campaign for
more than two and a half years. The operational recognition
board at our permanent joint headquarters is keeping the
issue of the medal under review. As soon as a decision is
made on the appropriate medallic recognition for Operation
Shader, an announcement will be made to this House.
-
I thank the Secretary of State for his answer. It is
heartening to see the real progress that is being made to
liberate Mosul and the role that our forces are playing in
that, and yet we know that it is only part of a wider
campaign to eradicate Daesh in the region. As the focus
will soon turn to Syria, where there are considerably
greater challenges, will he tell us in greater detail what
role he expects the RAF to play in the battle for Raqqa and
other Daesh strongholds?
-
Sir
It is important to recognise that Daesh has lost a
considerable amount of territory in Syria as well as in
Iraq, not least due to the efforts of the coalition air
operation in which the RAF is playing a major part in
gathering intelligence and carrying out precision strikes,
as recently as yesterday in the area immediately
surrounding Raqqa. We will continue to play that part,
providing precision air strikes, gathering intelligence
from the air and doing what we can to ensure that Daesh is
driven out of Syria, as I hope it will shortly be driven
out of Iraq.
Royal Navy: UK Economic Interests
-
(Lichfield)
(Con)
8. What international operations the Royal Navy is
conducting in support of UK economic interests and the
Global Britain campaign; and if he will make a statement.
[909193]
-
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence
(Harriett Baldwin)
The 2015 national security strategy strengthens the
historic role of the Royal Navy in promoting our national
prosperity. Royal Navy ships are deployed today around the
globe, from the Falklands to the Gulf and the Caribbean,
supporting the UK’s economic interests.
-
I thank my hon. Friend for her answer. I believe that she
was waving the flag for Britain and our exports with HMS
Penzance in Abu Dhabi recently. Does she agree that it is
about not just protecting our seaways, but waving the flag
and promoting Britain and our exports, particularly those
from the west midlands?
-
Indeed, I was delighted to be welcomed on board HMS
Penzance in Abu Dhabi and to thank the crew for the
valuable contribution they are making in mine
counter-measures. The Royal Navy will deploy ships to
various ports throughout 2017. Only last week, HMS Ocean
visited Beirut where the ship acted as a showcase for
British industry—indeed midlands industry—including Jaguar
Land Rover and Aston Martin.
-
(South Dorset)
(Con)
When the United Kingdom leaves the EU in two years’ time,
our military commitments are likely to increase. Will my
hon. Friend assure me that we will have enough Royal Navy
ships to ensure that our commitments on our shores, on our
trade routes, to our dependants and to NATO are met?
-
My hon. Friend is absolutely right to highlight the
importance of the Royal Navy. Of course, 2017 is the year
of the Royal Navy as it prepares to welcome the new
aircraft carriers, submarines, frigates, offshore patrol
vessels and the aircrafts from which to fly.
Defence Estate Strategy
-
(Angus) (SNP)
9. What progress he has made on implementing the defence
estate strategy. [909194]
-
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence
(Mark Lancaster)
The Ministry of Defence is conducting a series of detailed
assessments at affected sites, which is expected to take 12
to 18 months to complete. The assessments will more
precisely define the exact moves, but good progress is
being made.
-
When launching the reviews, Ministers said that it would
release land for housing and boost local economies. What
weight is the Minister giving to projects for affordable
housing and other community projects in determining the
price that is asked?
-
The disposal of land has to follow Treasury guidelines, but
I am delighted that Angus Council has expressed an interest
in purchasing the land at RM Condor in the hon. Gentleman’s
constituency. I am equally delighted that progress will
continue on Thursday, when Defence Infrastructure
Organisation officials will meet council officials.
-
(South Antrim)
(UUP)
What consideration has been given to the use of the
Ballykinler site in Northern Ireland for social housing or
housing for veterans?
-
There have recently been discussions about the potential
use of the accommodation at that site, and those
discussions will continue.
-
Mr Speaker
The hon. Member for Sleaford and North Hykeham is, of
course, also a doctor. That fact was erroneously not listed
on the Order Paper. I hope that will not happen again. I
call Dr .
Cadet Units: State Schools
-
Dr (Sleaford and North
Hykeham) (Con)
10. What steps he is taking to increase the number of cadet
units in state schools. [909195]
-
The Minister for the Armed Forces (Mike Penning)
In 2015, the Government committed £50 million to increase
the number of cadet units in the UK state school sector
under the cadet expansion programme. This joint Ministry of
Defence and Department for Education project targets areas
of social and economic deprivation, and is on target to hit
500 cadet units in schools by 2020.
-
Dr Johnson
The Lincolnshire Army Cadet Force does valuable work with
young people, particularly the Two Squadron detachment
based in Sleaford. I am delighted that so many people in
the county have the chance to become a cadet, but that is
not the case everywhere. Will my right hon. Friend confirm
that he will prioritise the approval of new units in areas
where young people do not have the opportunity to become a
cadet?
-
I declare an interest in that I was an air cadet and an
Army cadet before I joined the armed forces many, many
years ago. St George’s Academy—a comprehensive school—in my
hon. Friend’s constituency has expressed an interest, and
we hope to give the school an indication of whether that
has been approved in the autumn.
Closure of MOD Sites
-
(York Central)
(Lab/Co-op)
11. What assessment he has made of the economic and social
effect on local communities of proposals in the defence
estate review for the closure of Ministry of Defence sites.
[909196]
-
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence
(Mark Lancaster)
“A Better Defence Estate” is a military-led review. This
estate optimisation strategy was developed in consultation
with senior military officers to optimise defence
infrastructure to better support military capability. The
MOD has engaged with, and will continue to engage with,
local authorities in order to maximise and enhance local
economic development as well as value for money for
defence.
-
“A Better Defence Estate” will result in more than 500
civilian and contractor jobs lost in York, where the local
economy is already struggling with low wages and job
losses. Why is the Minister not following joint service
publication 507, which determines that an economic and
social impact assessment has to take place first? Will he
work across Government to ensure that we can secure jobs in
York?
-
Let us be clear that the site the hon. Lady mentions is due
for disposal in some 14 years’ time in 2031. We will be
following all due process. The economic impact assessment
is as much a useful document for the local authority to see
what gaps there may be as a result of the estate being
closed, so that we can work closely with the local
authority to see how we can move forward.
-
(South Down)
(SDLP)
Further to my meeting with the Minister last week regarding
housing at Ballykinler Army camp, and further to the
question of the hon. Member for South Antrim (Danny
Kinahan), will the Minister detail the nature of the
further discussions he mentioned? What detail will be
provided to ensure that those houses are released to meet
unmet housing need?
-
With respect to the hon. Lady, we discussed this in detail
last week, so I will simply do as I said I would in that
meeting and write to her in due course.
Departmental Funding
-
(Blaenau Gwent) (Lab)
12. What recent discussions he has had with the Chancellor
of the Exchequer on the level of funding for his
Department. [909197]
-
The Secretary of State for Defence (Sir Michael
Fallon)
I have regular discussions with the Chancellor. The 2015
spending review set out spending plans for the remainder of
this Parliament. The Chancellor confirmed last Wednesday
that the Government are committed to growing the defence
budget at 0.5% above inflation each year until 2020-21. We
also have access to the joint security fund. With these
commitments, the defence budget will rise from £35 billion
this year to almost £40 billion by the end of this
Parliament.
-
Why does the Government’s defence spending return to NATO
include more than £1 billion of war and civilian pensions?
These do not contribute to our defence and were not
included under a Labour Government. Concern over these
accounting tricks undermines confidence in our defence
spending targets.
-
Sir
The return we make to NATO captures all the spending that
falls to the defence budget, and it is for NATO to decide
whether that return is properly completed. Indeed, a
Committee of this House found that the
“accounting criteria fall firmly within existing NATO
guidelines.”
Surplus Land
-
(Castle Point)
(Con)
16. What steps he is taking to release surplus Ministry of
Defence land. [909201]
-
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence
(Mark Lancaster)
As part of an ongoing programme, all land that is surplus
to defence requirements is sold in accordance with the
guidelines set by the Treasury. This release of sites
supports the Department’s contribution to the Government’s
public sector land release target to reduce the housing
deficit or contribute to economic development.
-
I appreciate that some people will be concerned at the
release of some MOD land, but does my hon. Friend agree
that, for anyone who is anxious to have a home of their own
or who needs new business premises, it often cannot come
quickly enough?
-
Indeed. I would point the House to the recent sale of the
Hullavington site, which I was delighted was bought by Sir
James Dyson. While it may not be going directly to housing,
it will become the Dyson global research and development
hub, which will bring much-needed economic development to
the area.
Topical Questions
-
(Stroud) (Con)
T1. If he will make a statement on his departmental
responsibilities. [909211]
-
The Secretary of State for Defence (Sir Michael
Fallon)
My priorities remain operations against Daesh and
implementing our strategic defence review.
Last Thursday, Her Majesty the Queen unveiled a monument to
the service and sacrifice of our armed forces in Iraq and
Afghanistan. For too long, those troops faced false
allegations made by Mr Phil Shiner, and my Department
supplied evidence that finally saw him struck off last
month. I am therefore now pleased to confirm that the Iraq
Historic Allegations Team will close by the summer.
-
Does Sweden’s announcing that it plans on reintroducing
conscription signal an awareness in countries such as
Sweden that there is an increasing problem from Russia and
elsewhere, and should that be translated into an argument
for spending 2% of GDP on defence?
-
Sir
Well, yes. Europe faces a wide range of threats, including
those from Russian aggression and international terrorism.
European nations need the capabilities to respond and the
funding to provide those capabilities. I reminded a meeting
of EU Foreign and Defence Ministers last week of the
importance of all of us who are members of NATO meeting
that NATO spending target.
-
(Llanelli) (Lab)
The outsourcing of public services frequently results in
lower levels of staffing, less continuity, less training
and less vetting. Given that the MOD Guard Service was set
up in the wake of the 1989 bombing of the Royal Marines
building at Deal, when 11 marines died, and that failures
by a private security firm were identified, will the
Government recognise the sensitivity of the work done by
the MOD guards and abandon plans to privatise the service?
-
Sir
Let me make it clear to the hon. Lady that we are currently
considering the options for the future provision of an
effective unarmed guarding service throughout the United
Kingdom, which, at the moment, is being provided by a
multiplicity of different services. The aim is to achieve
maximum value for money to ensure that we can focus
resources on military capability, but security remains a
priority, and no decisions will be made that would
compromise the security of our personnel, our information
or our physical assets.
-
(Mid Derbyshire)
(Con)
T5. Can my right hon. Friend recall a time when the
deployment of British forces to a NATO ally has not had the
support of the whole House? [909215]
-
Sir
This House has a long history of supporting our armed
forces as they serve and protect our country and our
allies. I am obviously disappointed that the Leader of the
Opposition has described this week’s defensive deployments
to Estonia and Poland as escalatory, and I hope the shadow
Defence Secretary will take this opportunity to condemn
those remarks today.
-
(St Helens North)
(Lab)
T2. The Duke of Lancaster’s Regiment headquarters and
museum, Fulwood barracks, is to be sold off, while its 2nd
battalion will lose over half its complement of soldiers
and move to Aldershot. That will leave just one regular
infantry battalion in the north-west by 2020 in that
regiment, which as it stands has no headquarters identified
after 2022. What message do the Government think that sends
to serving personnel in St Helens and to the young men and
women who want to follow in their footsteps and join
Merseyside’s county regiment? [909212]
-
The Minister for the Armed Forces (Mike Penning)
The best message we can send to that unit—I know the hon.
Gentleman will do this with me—is that it is one of the
best units in the British Army. I have visited it on
operations literally around the world. We will support it
all the way through. At the same time, we must get the best
estates for the best parts of the Army.
-
(Cannock Chase)
(Con)
T8. Thirty-five years on, our armed forces still play a
vital role in safeguarding the security of the Falkland
Islands and other British overseas territories in the south
Atlantic. Can my right hon. Friend confirm that this
Government are committed to maintaining a strong armed
forces presence in the Falklands? [909219]
-
Thirty-five years on, we not only continue but will enhance
the protection of the Falkland Islands. I know that many
colleagues from the House have visited the Falklands
recently and seen the excellent work that our armed forces
do far away from home. We will continue to support that
with the Typhoons, the Rapier, and the other battalions
that are there now.
-
(Sheffield,
Brightside and Hillsborough) (Lab)
T3. Toolmakers in my constituency such as J. Adams Ltd have
made high-quality military knives for the defence sector
for six generations. The UK’s manufacturing industry is
more than capable of supplying the sector, but new Royal
Navy Trident submarines and offshore patrol vessels are
being built using foreign steel. When is the Ministry of
Defence going to publish a proper defence industrial
strategy so that we can start supporting UK steel and
manufacturing instead of buying off the shelf from abroad?
[909213]
-
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence
(Harriett Baldwin)
Of course we want UK steel to be used wherever possible.
That is why last year we published the full pipeline of
steel that we will need across the whole of Government. We
work with our suppliers to encourage them to use British
steel producers, where available, in that pipeline.
-
(Rossendale and Darwen)
(Con)
At Defence questions on 30 January, I asked the Minister
how many people were currently working in defence
procurement and what plans the Government have to reduce
that number. She subsequently wrote to me to say that
11,500 people are currently working in procurement. Given
that this equates to 149 people per ship in the Royal Navy,
14 people per aircraft in the Royal Air Force and one
person per seven soldiers, will she now say what steps the
Government are going to take to reduce this extremely large
number?
-
I would like to emphasise to my hon. Friend that a lot of
those people will in fact be uniformed. What often happens
is that they rotate through the teams that are involved in
procurement because there is no one better than our
uniformed personnel to decide on the requirements that are
needed. However, he is absolutely right that they are not
immune to the need, across the whole of defence, to
continue to find ways to spend more efficiently.
-
(Linlithgow and East
Falkirk) (SNP)
T4. Last week the Royal United Services Institute published
a report demonstrating that the Royal Navy is no longer
designed for sea control in the north Atlantic. Indeed,
there is not one major surface vessel based in Scotland.
Can the Minister confirm that the lesser spotted national
shipbuilding strategy, if and when we eventually see it,
will redress this strategic imbalance? [909214]
-
Yet again Scottish National party Members want to run down
the Royal Navy and the fantastic work it is doing. What is
important is whether the Navy is there and whether are our
submarines there. They are, and this is exactly what the
Navy will be expected to do.
-
Mr (Rayleigh and
Wickford) (Con)
HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales, the two
largest warships ever procured for the Royal Navy, are
currently being built and fitted out in Scotland. As
Scotland is much in the news today, will the Secretary of
State take this opportunity to remind the House of the
great defence benefits there are in Scotland remaining part
of our United Kingdom?
-
Sir
Yes. I visited both carriers last week. This will be a huge
asset for the Royal Navy and for this country. Let us be
very clear: Scotland is getting all the Royal Navy’s
submarines, a major Army base is growing at Leuchars, and
there is huge investment at Lossiemouth with an additional
Typhoon squadron and the deployment of our new maritime
patrol aircraft. Scotland plays a huge part in the defence
of the United Kingdom.
-
(Newport East)
(Lab)
T6. The latest UK armed forces monthly figures show that
while 6,690 people joined the reservists in the past 12
months, over 5,000 left. What more is being done to
encourage the retention of reservists? [909216]
-
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence
(Mark Lancaster)
I am pleased to say that we remain ahead of target in
recruiting our reserves. The key to retention—I declare my
hand as a serving reservist—is to make sure that we
continue to offer interesting and exciting opportunities
and training in the reserves, and we aim to do that.
-
(Wealden) (Con)
The Saudi-led Islamic military alliance to defeat Daesh has
grown from 34 to 40 members. The role of Islamic countries
in defeating Daesh, especially its poisonous ideology, is
absolutely key. What update does my right hon. Friend the
Secretary of State have from the Saudis on the progress
made by the Saudi coalition?
-
Sir
We welcome the role that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has
taken in leading the effort to discredit the so-called
ideology of Daesh. We, too, are leading work on strategic
communications, and we recently hosted the very latest
coalition conference, which brings together all our
international efforts. I am particularly pleased that this
campaign is being strengthened by the commitment of Saudi
Arabia to rid this religion of its appalling extremism.
-
Mr (Coventry South)
(Lab)
T7. Following on from the answer that the Minister gave to
my hon. Friend the Member for Sheffield, Brightside and
Hillsborough (Gill Furniss), can she name the projects in
which British steel is actually being used to safeguard
British steelworkers jobs? [909218]
-
We are committed to building Type 26 frigates, and that
forms part of the pipeline of defence procurement where we
are going to need steel. Our main supplier is running a
competition in which I believe five UK firms are
participating.
-
(New Forest East)
(Con)
Did Ministers see the evidence given to the Select
Committee on Defence last Tuesday by four eminent
professors of law, indicating that there is no legal reason
that a statute of limitations cannot be brought forward to
prevent the hounding of our service personnel for
pre-Belfast-agreement-related matters? Will Ministers work
with the Committee by giving evidence to us that might
enable such a statute to be brought forward?
-
Sir
We have indeed been following the proceedings of my right
hon. Friend’s Committee with close interest. We want any
legacy investigations in Northern Ireland to be fair,
balanced and proportionate, given that 90% of the deaths
there were caused by terrorists, not by members of the
security forces. We would also not want to see cases
reopened unless there is new and credible evidence to do
so.
-
(West Ham) (Lab)
T9. We continue to hear stories of our service personnel
being forced to live without heating and sometimes without
being able to take a shower for days, as detailed in recent
reports about the Wellington and Baker barracks. Do the
Government really think it is acceptable to leave our brave
servicemen and women in such squalid conditions? [909220]
-
No, which is precisely why we invested £60 million last
year and will invest £84 million this year to ensure that
our service personnel’s accommodation is very good. It is
also why service personnel are not allowed to go into any
new service family accommodation home that does not meet
the decent homes standard.
-
(Witney) (Con)
Carterton in my constituency has a large amount of Royal
Air Force housing and land that will be available for
much-needed housing. Will the Minister agree to meet me to
discuss ways in which the land can be released for that
urgently needed housing?
-
I would be delighted to do so.
-
(Gedling) (Lab)
What discussions has the Defence Secretary had with the US
Government about the announcement over the weekend of the
deployment of hundreds of US marines to northern Syria,
what their purpose is and what co-operation will take place
between us and the Americans with respect to that
deployment?
-
Sir
I reviewed the campaign in Syria with the United States
Defence Secretary at our meeting in Brussels a couple of
weeks ago. We are not deploying combat troops to this
particular campaign in Syria, but the United States is
committing more support forces and working as part of the
international coalition to ensure that the Syrian
democratic forces have all the assistance and advice they
need.
-
(East Lothian)
(SNP)
Will the Secretary of State confirm that the deep
maintenance and repair of the engines of all British F-35
fighters will be done in Turkey, and what, if any, security
issues arise from this rather strange decision?
-
I will follow this up with the hon. Gentleman, but I can
confirm—I am sure he shares my delight—that north Wales has
been selected for the global hub outside the US for all the
maintenance and repair of the avionics.
-
(East Renfrewshire)
(SNP)
The Secretary of State will have seen reports of armed
drones operated from RAF Waddington with a kill list
targeting UK citizens. If those reports are right, what
happened to the commitment to come to the House at the
earliest opportunity if lethal force was used in
self-defence, and does the kill list extend beyond
geographical areas where military action has been
authorised by this House?
-
Sir
Let me just make it clear to the hon. Lady and to the House
that those involved in supporting Daesh in Iraq and in
Syria are certainly liable to be killed by coalition
forces, and those who pose a very direct threat to this
country are also likely, if there is no other way of
forestalling that threat, to be targeted.
-
(Stirling)
(SNP)
According to the National Audit Office, even if the defence
estate strategy was implemented in full, we would still
have an £8.5 billion budget shortfall caused by the
deterioration of the estate. Is the strategy fit for
purpose?
-
The strategy is absolutely fit for purpose, and it is based
on delivering military capability. Reducing the estate by
some 30% means that we have less estate to look after, and
that we can reinvest some £4 billion over the next 20 years.
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