In November 2024, the Food,
Farming and Countryside Commission's report on The False
Economy of Big Food asked two questions: how much does
the UK's current food system cost the nation through diet-related
ill health; and how much additional household expenditure would
be required to ensure access to a healthy diet for everyone?
This report revisits these questions using updated evidence and
statistics. It also takes into consideration new insights and
research, published since the earlier work, that are important
context for our analysis.
The updated context
The evidence that diet-related ill health causes economic harm
has increased. It has been estimated that 2.8 million working-age
people are now outside the labour market because of long-term
sickness. The burden is unequally distributed, with poorer
households and more deprived places experiencing substantially
higher rates of illness.
The unequal burden of illness is compounded by a profound
inequality in the ability to afford a healthy diet. The Food
Foundation have estimated that a family with children in the
lowest income quintile would need to spend approximately 85% of
disposable income after housing costs to afford a diet compliant
with the government's Eatwell Guide on healthy eating.
These impacts are framed by market conditions. Evidence of the
commercial determinants of health' has gained increasing
prominence since our original report. This evidence has
established how commercial actors influence health and health
equity. It has revealed how diets are shaped by product
formulation, pricing, availability, marketing and retail
environments. And it has exposed the way corporate power exerts
influence over research, public narratives and policymaking.
In short, as health conditions decline and food inequality
increases, commercial drivers are still pitted against public
health and undermining social and economic well-being.
The updated findings
The calculations in this report show that the hidden'
health-related costs of our food system have increased since the
2024 report was published, while the additional household
spending needed to achieve healthy diets for all has narrowed
slightly. Specifically, we find that:
- The estimated health-related costs attributable to unhealthy
diets have risen from £268 billion to £298 billion a year at
mid-2026 prices.
- Direct healthcare, social care and welfare costs amount to
approximately £104 billion (up £12bn from 2024). Indirect
productivity and quality-of-life losses add a further £194
billion (£18bn higher than in 2024).
- The incremental expenditure needed to bring household food
budgets up to the cost of achieving the Eatwell Guide across the
nation has fallen from £57 billion to £51 billion a year.
Households are spending more on food, but not necessarily more on
healthy food.
- The hidden costs of unhealthy diets are therefore almost six
times the household expenditure gap. Direct costs alone are more
than twice the estimated uplift.
- On this illustrative accounting framework, the overall cost
of current household food spending including the hidden cost
amounts to more than £414 billion a year, compared with just
under £167 billion for an Eatwell-compliant diet an annual
difference of almost £248 billion.
The updated evidence leaves the fundamental argument
from The False Economy of Big Food unchanged.
The UK spends vast sums managing chronic illness while
maintaining a food economy that makes healthy eating difficult
and, for many households, unaffordable.
The policy conclusions
These findings do not change the policy conclusions from the
earlier report. On the contrary they underline the importance of
our previous analysis. In particular, they point towards a clear
set of policy principles:
- Treat food and health policy as economic policy
- Establish affordable healthy food as a practical right
- Reshape the food environment with enforceable standards and
product transparency
- Redirect financial flows to align commercial returns with
public value
- Build a cross-government food and health mission
Ensuring access to nutritious food is an ethical and
public-health imperative. The updated analysis confirms that it
is also an economic necessity.
