Climate and risk specialists from the Government Actuary's
Department (GAD) partnered with the Institute and Faculty of
Actuaries (IFoA) to host a cross-government roundtable on climate
scenarios.
The event, during London Climate Action Week, brought together
representatives from 8 government organisations to:
- share experience
- identify common challenges
- explore how climate scenarios can support policymaking and
long-term decision-making across government
Building resilience through scenario analysis
Government departments increasingly recognise that climate risks
affect economic performance, infrastructure, public services and
national security.
Many departments already use scenario-based tools for horizon
scanning and strategic risk planning. Attendees explored how
these approaches could be used more consistently to inform policy
and investment decisions.
The event opened with a presentation on how actuaries use
scenarios, as opposed to forecasts, to test decisions against
severe but plausible futures rather than a single central case.
The IFoA also shared insights
from its contribution (PDF, 1.19KB) to HM Treasury's
Green Book Discount Rate review, exploring how long-term,
transformational and highly uncertain decisions might be
appraised differently from routine investments.
Sharing experiences
Drawing on a range of departmental perspectives, participants
took part in facilitated discussions to consider:
- where climate uncertainty is already well considered, and
where it can be overlooked
- the barriers to wider use of climate scenarios across
government
- what would help ensure climate scenarios are best used to
support effective decision-making
GAD also shared a practical case study, drawn from
separate GAD work with the Ministry
of Justice on prison estate overheating risk. This work
examined the potential impact of rising temperatures on the
prison estate. It illustrated how scenario analysis can help
organisations assess long-term risks, test potential
interventions and support practical decision-making in the face
of uncertainty.
The roundtable provided a structured opportunity for
organisations to compare approaches, share practical experience
and identify common challenges.
Discussions highlighted a shared interest in strengthening the
use of climate scenarios across government, particularly through
improved governance, better analytical tools and increased
collaboration between organisations.
The roundtable took place during a period of extreme heat and,
following a Met Office red heat alert, moved to a hybrid format.
It was a timely reminder that climate risks are already affecting
how we live and work today.
It was encouraging to see organisations from across government
sharing experience and exploring how scenario analysis can
support more resilient decision-making.
Matt Gurden, Deputy Government Actuary, Government Actuary's
Department
