Post-16 subject choice in England restricted by postcode as fragmented education system limits opportunities for students  - NFER

Young people's access to post-16 subjects in England is limited by where they live, with fragmentation in England's post-16 education system restricting subject choice and efficiency in some areas. This means that many are unable to study their preferred subjects due to gaps in local provision.  

Post-16 education policy has tended to emphasise the benefits of competition between providers, but government also acknowledge that too many small providers in one area can create challenges. It can lead to resources being spread too thinly, narrower subject choices for learners and geographical inequalities in what young people can study.   

New NFER analysis, commissioned by the Association of Colleges (AoC), shines a light on how subject choice and delivery efficiency vary across the country, depending on how fragmented the post-16 education system is.  

This research shows that in some areas of the country there are subject ‘cold spots', where some subjects are not offered by any provider. This is especially seen in subjects such as A-Level Dance and Music Technology, which are unavailable to students in around half of England's local authorities, while students in over 30 local authorities are unable to study A-Level German.   

The study reveals these ‘cold spots' are not confined to rural areas, with some more densely populated areas having weak subject availability and/or inefficient delivery to small classes. In practice, this means learners' choice of post-16 qualifications may be shaped, and in some cases limited, by the structure of their local provider market.   

According to the research, areas with a greater number of smaller providers - which is particularly driven by a higher share of provision being school sixth forms - tend to offer a narrower range of subjects and run smaller, less efficient classes, particularly in humanities and social sciences.   

 Luke Bocock, Research Director at NFER, said:  

“Sometimes, a young person's choices at 16 are shaped not just by their interests or ambitions, but by what happens to be available locally.   

“Our findings show that in more fragmented post-16 education systems, students are more likely to face restricted subject options, particularly in specialist subject areas. This has real consequences for some young people. The subjects available to them at this stage can shape what they go on to study, and the opportunities open to them later in life.  

“Coupled with this, post-16 education providers face bigger challenges to delivering courses efficiently where the provision in their area is relatively more fragmented - too often in these areas small, inefficient class sizes are the norm.   

“Without better coordination across the post-16 education system, these gaps risk limiting young people's potential and creating inequalities.”  

The analysis used national Key Stage 5 (KS5) subject entry data, combined with provider-level learner numbers, to examine how subject sufficiency (whether subjects are offered at all) and efficiency (cohort sizes and prevalence of very small classes) vary depending on how fragmented the provider market is in a local authority (LA) area. It looked across eight subject clusters spanning creative arts, performing arts, humanities, social sciences and languages, covering both A-levels and vocational qualifications.     

Additional findings from the report include:   

• Providers in more fragmented post-16 markets tend to run smaller, less efficient classes, particularly in humanities and social sciences, reflecting the challenges of operating in areas with more smaller providers.   

• More fragmented post-16 markets tend to have higher numbers of school sixth forms, as opposed to larger Sixth Form Colleges and General FE Colleges. This means provision is delivered to smaller groups (often fewer than 10 students) particularly in languages, performing arts and creative arts, while colleges operate at a larger and more efficient scale.  

• School sixth forms often continue to offer marginal and specialist subjects – particularly in humanities, social sciences and some languages, such as A-level geography and history – even when student numbers are very low, leading to duplication of provision across sixth form schools and larger colleges nearby.   

• In areas with a greater concentration of school sixth forms than dedicated 16-19 colleges, colleges are more likely to withdraw marginal and specialist subjects, and, where they are retained to deliver them less efficiently. Smaller school sixth forms face the greatest challenges in running efficient class sizes and offering a broad range of subjects. They often offer fewer exam entries and less likely to offer A-levels in marginal and specialist subjects, although this pattern is not seen for vocational qualifications.     

David Hughes, Chief Executive, Association of Colleges, said:   

“This useful NFER report sets out how fragmented 16-18 education is across the country. It shows that a marketised approach does not result in a high quality, broad and complete offer of courses and institutions that are accessible by every young person.   

“The system we have requires providers to compete for students and plan independently of each other, inevitably leading to a strong offer in some areas and insufficient capacity in other areas. Overall, this means many young people cannot access the learning, training and education which best suits them and which motivates and engages them.   

“Every student should have a wide and varied choice that they are able to access. To achieve this, we need a more co-ordinated approach to planning the capacity for the full range of 16-18 provision and institutions locally. Doing this will achieve greater efficiency (with fewer students dropping out and starting again and fewer very small class sizes) and sufficiency (covering the whole range of learning, training and education) while being sensitive to local contexts.  

“For vulnerable subjects such as performing arts and languages, the college-based subject ‘hubs' are well worth trialling. These could preserve and extend access to these subjects, reduce ‘cold spots', inefficiencies or duplication.”    

The report makes the following policy recommendations:   

• Government should strengthen oversight of school sixth form expansion to consider system-wide impacts on subject choice and sustainability.   

• Combined and local authorities should convene schools and colleges to support partnership, shared provision and timetabling between providers, with the aim of maximising subject choice while improving efficiency.  

• Where appropriate, combined and local authorities should support specialisation by  designating specific providers as subject hubs and discouraging duplication by other local providers, particularly in creative and performing arts, to preserve access to specialist courses, improve quality and reduce inefficient duplication.   

• Where informal coordination proves to be too difficult or unsustainable, combined and local authorities should consider encouraging schools and/or colleges to formally merge to improve efficiency and support a broad choice of subjects for students in the area.