Tony Blair Institute: “Iran conflict shows UK must launch urgent review into infrastructure vulnerabilities”

The government must urgently review its infrastructure to adapt to a ‘new normal' of economic warfare, according to the Tony Blair Institute (TBI).

Released today, ‘Technological Chokepoints: How to Balance Resilience and Leverage in a Weaponised Economy' argues that policymakers have historically treated economic crises like the Strait of Hormuz blockade as one-off ‘shocks'. However, this framing is no longer fit for purpose.

Instead, economic coercion and supply-chain leverage are a ‘new normal' for geopolitics.

The threat, TBI argues, will become exacerbated by increased dependence on technology such as AI. As the world becomes more digital, chokepoints such as chips, data centres and cables now underpin systems including defence and healthcare.

As the UK rightly focuses on increasing defence spending and minimising energy costs, it is just as important that the government undertake an urgent review of the country's digital foundations: where they may be vulnerable to acts of economic aggression in the medium to long term, where they can build defences, and where they can build leverage for their own offensive strategy.

These leverage points might include existing, traditional UK strengths, such as aerospace, which need to be maintained, or potential future areas of comparative advantage, such as quantum software and specialised AI chip design.

Where states have complete dominance over critical elements of the tech supply chain, such as frontier AI systems or future quantum computers, the ability to ‘pull the plug' will be far more catastrophic - from hospital systems crashing to major critical infrastructure disruption. Just as Iran can exert pressure through control of a physical chokepoint, states with technological dominance can wield economic power.

It is not possible to ‘opt out' of this new reality for any country that wants a seat on the global stage. For countries like the UK, full technological self-sufficiency is neither feasible nor desirable. At the same time, unmanaged dependence on other countries risks exposing critical sectors to disruption or coercion.

Dr Keegan McBride, Director of Science and Technology Policy, said: 

“The world's digital future is being built today. The UK needs a clear strategy for ensuring it has sufficient leverage to maintain its seat at the table. This does not mean that it needs to do everything, but it does need a strategy to make itself an inseparable part of the emerging AI and frontier technology economy.” 

“Iran's ability to create an economic ‘chokepoint' around the Strait of Hormuz highlights how control over critical nodes can translate into geopolitical influence. The same is true of the emerging frontier technology economy, except that, unlike geography, these ones can be purposefully built and leveraged strategically.

“With Britain's growth already the most affected in the G7 by the conflict, it couldn't be more important that we build our resilience now.”

TBI argues that the central challenge for leaders is not simply acknowledging the severity of these risks, but responding to them strategically, based on ruthless prioritisation.

To support decision-making, the report introduces the ‘TBI Chokepoints Framework', a practical tool designed to help policymakers identify where to act, where to build resilience and where to accept dependence. The framework evaluates technologies across three dimensions: exposure, strategic importance and feasibility of intervention, enabling governments to make more targeted and effective choices.

This approach allows leaders to move beyond reactive policymaking and towards a more strategic posture that balances resilience, leverage and openness while remaining embedded in global markets.

Supporting the paper, Chris Miller, author of ‘Chip War', said:

“In an era when every major power sees trade flows and supply chains as a source of either strategic leverage or vulnerability, prioritisation is key. [This paper] offers a compelling framework for assessing risk and mitigation strategies--a critical starting point for any analysis of tech dependencies or sovereign AI.”

Embargoed copy of the paper here