NFER: Research suggests early years recruitment may have stalled, raising concerns over 35,000 extra staff target

A new study is warning that the Government's plans for free childcare could struggle unless growth in early years staffing is reinvigorated.

The Department for Education had estimated the early years workforce would have to increase by 35,000 staff between December 2023 and September 2025 to meet the needs of the expanded entitlement. In September 2025, free childcare entitlement extended from 15 to 30 hours for eligible working families in England with children aged between nine months and three years.

Analysis by NFER reveals that despite rising by nearly 20,000 between 2023 and 2024 – and appearing to be on track for delivering the entitlement nationally – an estimate from provider survey data suggests that the early years workforce increased by just 600 between 2024 and 2025. However, it is possible that a further recruitment surge over the summer, a period not captured by our study, may have considerably closed this gap. There is also uncertainty associated with the estimated staff numbers since they are from a large-scale survey rather than a census.

The ‘Early Years Workforce in England Annual Report 2026' by NFER, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, also emphasises the evidence showing a strong link between higher qualification levels among early years staff and the quality of provision and children's outcomes.

The research highlights that the Government's ‘Best Start in Life' strategy commits to creating clear career pathways and training routes to help educators progress and achieve higher level qualifications.

However, the proportion of staff qualified to level 4 or above (higher education) remains relatively low at just a quarter of the workforce. A significant minority hold level 2 qualifications (GCSE equivalents) or below, including 15 per cent of staff in school-based settings, 20 per cent in group-based providers, and 24 per cent of childminders.

The report recommends that alongside greater availability of training and professional development, the Government should carefully explore the role of regulation in providing clear opportunities for career progression and a pay structure that rewards higher qualification levels. 

NFER Education Workforce Lead, Jack Worth, said:

“It is important to acknowledge that meeting recruitment needs isn't just about hitting the targets. To ensure that children receive the best start in life, more must be done to encourage those with higher levels of qualifications to enter the sector and stay, and provide opportunities for all staff to progress their careers.”

Emily Tanner, Education Programme Head at the Nuffield Foundation, said:

“Parents need access to childcare that they can trust, and which provides high quality early learning. Tackling the issues that prevent the early years workforce from both growing in size and developing the skills needed to offer the best possible support for children will be key to making the entitlement as beneficial as possible for families.”

Further findings:

• Early years pay is low compared to otherwise similar workers, especially for those early years staff who are more highly qualified. Early years staff consistently earn around 30 per cent less than otherwise similar workers*. The relative pay gap for higher qualified staff is larger than average and has grown in recent years, from 34 per cent in 2021/22 and 2023/24 to 39 per cent in 2024/25. 
• Regions such as the South West, West Midlands and North East may be worst affected by potential staffing shortfalls. These areas demonstrate the most significant gaps between expected and estimated growth in the workforce between 2023 and 2025. In contrast, Yorkshire and Humberside appears to have seen higher staff number growth that may be more than the estimated staffing requirements. 
• Early years workers with higher qualification levels report more limited opportunities for career progression. Overall, early years workers in 2024 are only slightly less likely than similar workers to report that they have progression opportunities (53 per cent vs 56 per cent). But for higher qualified staff, the gap is significant: 44 per cent report opportunities compared with 58 per cent of similar workers. This may make the sector less attractive for highly skilled staff and reduce the incentive for others to upskill.
• Early years work offers higher levels of workplace representation and staff report higher levels of wellbeing. Early workers are more likely than similar workers to agree that their managers are ‘good' or ‘very good' at involving employees in workplace decision-making (61 per cent compared to 53 per cent). The data shows that early years workers have lower levels of anxiety, have higher levels of life satisfaction, and feeling that what they do in their life is worthwhile compared to similar workers, and these differences are increasing over time

Further recommendations:

• The Government should ensure that funding rates support early years providers to offer competitive wages to recruit and retain staff with a pay structure that rewards higher qualification levels.
• The Government should implement its policy proposals on the early years professional development offer and career pathway to upskill the current workforce. 
• The Government and providers should emphasise the high sense of worthwhileness, fulfilment and positive working environments that can be found in the early years as part of recruitment.    

The Early Years Workforce in England Annual Report 2026 is the first piece in a five-part series on the education workforce. Over the next month NFER, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, will publish reports which examine further education teachers, the school support staff workforce, the school teacher workforce, and finally an overview report that assesses the challenges across the education workforce as a whole in England.

ENDS℗ NOTES TO EDITORS

*The analysis is based on cross-sectional correlations, so should be interpreted cautiously. The ‘effects' identified could have causal implications, but only under strong assumptions. A key assumption is that there are no confounding factors that could also be influencing the relationship between the explanatory factor and retention but are not measured and accounted for in the modelling.