MS, Cabinet Secretary for
Housing and Local Government: Today, the Welsh Government
published a statistical article presenting new Estimates of additional housing
need (2025-based).
The 2025‑based housing need estimates show how many extra housing
units may be needed in Wales over the next 20 years. These
replace the 2019-based estimates.
The figures are based on two parts:
To make sure the estimates are robust and transparent, a
technical group was set up at the start of the work and has
supported previous versions. The group includes analytical and
policy experts from Welsh Government and local government and
advises on methods and technical issues.
Although the methodology is broadly the same as for the
2019-based estimates, some changes have been made to the data
sources and assumptions. For example, existing unmet need is
presented as a single estimate rather than being spread over an
assumed number of years. The sources used to estimate future
changes in income and private rent prices have also been updated
to reflect the best available data.
More detail on all changes is provided in the quality report.
Main points:
- There is currently an estimated existing unmet need of 9,400
housing units.
- Estimates of existing unmet need have increased by 64% since
the 2019‑based estimates, due to a rise in homeless households in
temporary accommodation.
- On average, between 7,800 and 9,300 additional housing units
are estimated to be needed annually over the five year period
from July 2025 to June 2030, with a central estimate of 8,700
from newly arising need.
- The estimated newly arising need for July 2025 to June 2030
is higher than in the 2019‑based estimates.
- This increase reflects higher projected household growth in
the 2022‑based household projections compared with the 2018‑based
projections used previously; household projections are mainly
driven by population projections.
- Growth in newly arising need is projected to slow down over
the next 20 years, in line with a gradual reduction in projected
household growth in the 2022‑based projections.
- Over the next five years, around 65% of newly arising need is
estimated to be for market housing, and around 35% for affordable
housing.
- Separately all existing unmet need is assumed as for
affordable housing and is presented as a single estimate rather
than being spread over an assumed number of years.
The figures indicate the estimated number of households in need
of an additional housing unit over the period but should not be
interpreted or used as housing targets. They are based on
assumptions and do not represent policy commitments or planning
requirements.
The data in the release forms part of the evidence base for
future planning in Wales and is used by the Welsh Government and
housing organisations to produce a picture of the overall need
for additional housing units in Wales. The data will be used to
inform any future review of the National Development Framework,
future policy development as well as informing Future Trends
reporting (as required by the Well-being of Future Generations
(Wales) Act 2015
A Chief Statistician's blog,
published alongside the estimates, explains more about the
estimates.
