Government action to avert summer prison disaster

• Government action finally puts jails on a sustainable footing, projections show
• Jails would have fully run out of space by June if Government had not acted to keep public safe.
• Prison crisis will be ended through sentencing reforms and largest prison expansion since Victorian era.
• Annual capacity statement published to increase transparency, part of Plan for Change.

The prison system would have collapsed entirely by summer if not for the Government's decisive action to keep the public safe, new analysis has revealed.

Published today (29 January), new projections show that without the Government's Sentencing Act – which received Royal Assent last week – the country would have completely run out of prison places as early as June this year. 

This Government's decisive action has safeguarded the police, courts, and wider criminal justice system, and avoided a potentially catastrophic breakdown of law and border. 

Under the last Government, prisons were regularly run red-hot at 99% capacity, with police chiefs warning that they would need to pause “non-priority” arrests.

Without action, the police would have been unable to make arrests, and courts would have been unable to send dangerous offenders to jails.  

The last government added only 500 places to the prison estate in 14 years, but this Government will never accept putting public safety at risk. 

That is why alongside sentencing reforms, it is pressing ahead with the biggest jail expansion programme since the Victorian era – delivering 14,000 extra prison places by 2031 with 2,900 already built. 

Deputy Prime Minister, David Lammy, said: 

“These figures are a stark reminder of the ticking time-bomb we inherited in our prison system, brought on by a legacy of neglect, with only 500 places added to the estate in 14 years. 

“We have moved at speed to fix this and make our streets safer, as part of our Plan for Change. We're overhauling sentencing and building thousands of prison places fast to protect the public and make sure there is always a cell for dangerous criminals.” 

The prison estate has operated at over 95% occupancy for more than twelve years. At one point in 2024, fewer than 100 spaces remained in the adult male estate. 

Now, projections set out in the Government's Annual Prison Capacity statement published today, show that without further action the situation would again become critical by March with demand for prison places fully exceeding supply within six months. This is despite the rapid rate at which jail spaces are currently being built. 

The Sentencing Act will grip this crisis, making sure future governments always have the prison places needed to keep people safe. This will keep dangerous criminals locked up, while bringing in tough new punishments that cut crime. To keep the public safe, more criminals will be tagged than ever before, and the probation service will be backed with £700 million extra funding.    

The Act will also make changes to the recall system, with offenders who breach the conditions of their licence returned to prison for a set 56 days. This will cut the number of prisoners waiting for a Parole Board decision after being returned to custody for often minor infractions and give the Probation Service more time to prepare for a release. The most serious and violent offenders will be excluded from this change, who will only be released after they are considered by the Parole Board. 

The prison population is expected to rise significantly throughout this Parliament, at around 3,000 a year without intervention, due to continued growth in police charging and prosecutions, increased court activity and longer sentence lengths.  

The combination of changes to sentencing, which will slow the projected rise in the prison population by 7,500 by 2028, with £7 billion investment adding thousands of extra prison places over the next five years, will put an end to the chronic crises of the last 15 years and enable our prisons to be managed effectively with public safety the top priority.

The Government is committed to greater transparency around how prison places are managed, publishing the first Prison Capacity Annual Statement in 2024. The Sentencing Act now makes this an annual statutory requirement, setting the standard for future governments.

Notes to editors 

• The Government has committed up to £7 billion over the next five years to deliver 14,000 new prison places by 2031. Since July 2024, 2,900 places have been delivered, including the new HMP Millsike in Yorkshire. 
• There are also more than 5000 places currently under construction. Meanwhile, around 500 more prison places are undergoing maintenance work compared to this time last year.