Written statement (Wales) on Second six-monthly update following the Welsh Government’s response to the UK Covid-19 Inquiry’s Module 1 report - Jan 14

First Minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan MS: I published a written statement on 14 July 2025 setting out the Welsh Government's first six-monthly update in response to the UK Covid-19 Inquiry's Module 1 report: The resilience and preparedness of the United Kingdom.

This statement is our second six-monthly progress update, in line with our commitment to the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.  

The Wales Resilience Framework and its supporting delivery plan, which I announced in May 2025, continues to guide our work to strengthen resilience. This includes improving risk assessment, particularly the impacts on vulnerable people, Wales' response and readiness capabilities and working with statutory responders to enhance community resilience, enabling individuals, businesses and civil society to better prepare for and withstand emergencies.

Over the last two years, Wales has consolidated and significantly strengthened how government and emergency responders coordinate to manage risk, preparing for and responding to emergencies and disruptive challenges.

Guided by the Wales Resilience Framework and initiatives led by the Welsh Government's National Security and Resilience Division, we have built a “Team Wales” approach; characterised by a robust shared risk picture, clearer joint protocols and leadership, intensive joint exercising and training, and an active resilience oversight function.

In 2025, we activated our strategic response arrangements on 31 occasions to support national and local multi-agency co-ordination. By stress-testing these arrangements through real-world incidents and exercises, including Exercise PEGASUS, these efforts have demonstrated real results, including faster multi-agency and government mobilisation, unified and better co-ordinated communication, and more effective outcomes in real emergencies, from major water outages and severe flooding, to cyber attacks and wildfires.

The continuous improvement and partnership mindset, which is enshrined in the Wales Resilience Framework means we will continue to review, learn lessons and adapt to changing threats and pressures. The risk register and preparedness report is reviewed; our risk outlooks is updated; the lessons database is live, and new risks reflecting evolving climate impacts, public and animal health risks, and national security threats is being actively managed.

The Wales Resilience Forum's work programme, which was agreed in December 2025, makes clear the priorities of maintaining our resilience architecture, and enhancing capabilities further, by carefully prioritising using the available resources and phasing delivery to ensure optimum impact.

I turn now to the individual recommendations made by the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.

Recommendation 2: Cabinet Office leadership for whole-system civil emergencies in the UK.

As set out in our response to the inquiry, the Welsh Government adopts the lead department model for risk assessment, emergency preparedness and response and recovery, underpinned by the principle of subsidiarity, ensuring decisions are taken at the lowest appropriate level while co-ordination occurs at the highest necessary level.

However, we recognise that in the event of a prolonged, whole-system emergency, this model has limitations and may need to be strengthened. To address this, through our resilience governance structures, we have established a cross-government group to develop an alternative model for an enduring, whole-of-system emergency response. Its work will inform the Welsh Government's Crisis Management Concept of Operations (CONOPs), which sets out our approach to crisis management. The final version of the Concept of Operations will be published in autumn 2026 following a final phase of work, consultation with partners and independent review.

The Welsh Government trialled the draft version of our Concept of Operations, during Exercise PEGASUS (which is addressed further in Recommendation 6).

Recommendation 3: A better approach to risk assessment

We continue to work closely with the UK and devolved governments to collectively strengthen approaches to risk assessment across the UK and support developments in risk methodologies. This includes liaising with the UK Government on its development of the classified UK National Security Risk Assessment to ensure a consistent approach to risk assessment across the UK.

We continue to work with organisations in Wales, via the Wales Resilience Partnership, to share best practice in relation to assessing the impacts of risks on people with vulnerabilities and specific needs. A part of the work programme is to explore pan-Wales approaches to consistently integrate the assessment of the impact of risks on vulnerable people and those with specific needs into local and national risk methodologies. To support this work programme, we are drawing on developments at the UK-level regarding improvements to risk assessment.

Working through our partnership arrangements, we are looking at ways to use data and information to help partners identify vulnerable and at-risk groups to ensure more specific and tailored support can be prioritised during any incident to those people who may need it the most. 

A dedicated team within the Welsh Government is working to enhance the JIGSO data platform. JIGSO, which is hosted on DataMapWales, is currently used during emergency responses and to support planning for emergencies. Whilst most of the data is openly published for everyone to use, JIGSO enables restricted and secure access for the sharing of more sensitive data using the Priority Services Register from Dwr Cymru. This enables the secure sharing of data about ‘at risk' properties with the resilience community and emergency services across Wales to prioritise resources to those that need it most. The improvements to JIGSO will enable faster and more comprehensive data access for responders, supporting effective multi-agency coordination during emergencies. We are working with utility companies to expand the data available on vulnerable people, including more detailed information about the reasons households may be classed as vulnerable. We are also engaging with local resilience forums to promote JIGSO, to train users, and ensure the system meets the needs of first responders.

Recommendation 4: A UK-wide whole-system civil emergency strategy

As emergencies do not respect borders, we are committed to close collaboration with the UK Government and the devolved governments to ensure a joined-up approach to UK-wide, whole-system emergencies. This co-operation is essential to align policies and facilitate effective coordination for the benefit of all citizens.

The Four Nations Interministerial Group on Strategic Resilience is a dedicated forum for Ministers across the UK to address shared resilience priorities and strengthen collective preparedness for future challenges, this is due to meet in the new year.

Following the introduction of the Wales Resilience Framework and its supporting delivery plan and the action we are taking with the UK Government and devolved governments, I consider implementation of recommendation 4 has now been completed.

Recommendation 5: Data and research for future pandemics

The Welsh Government continues to make progress in enhancing its emergency preparedness and response capabilities related to data.

We have established a data, evidence and analytical team, which will integrate data into emergency planning and response activities. A memorandum of understanding has been signed with the UK's National Situation Centre to ensure reciprocal data provision during crises, underscoring a firm commitment to data-driven decision-making in times of emergency. The role of data, evidence and analysis in an emergency response was tested during Exercise PEGASUS, with the new team providing a crucial coordinating role across the four UK administrations and with local resilience forums.

We have started work on a modelling strategy for health and social care in Wales. This will establish a sustainable and long-term arrangement for health and social care modelling in Wales which can respond to pandemic situations and other ad-hoc requests to support the Welsh Government's Ministerial priorities. The modelling strategy for health and social care in Wales (Part 1) has been completed and provides an overview of the current modelling landscape in relation to health and social care in Wales. It includes examples of previous applications of modelling and summarises key themes emerging from stakeholder engagement with partners (such as Public Health Wales, NHS Wales organisations, academics and Social Care Wales). The modelling strategy for health and social care in Wales (Part 2) will be published in summer 2026. It will set out the technical detail of modelling, along with a plan for how modellers, organisations, and modelling groups can collaborate more effectively in the future.

Up to £2.29m in 2025-26 was awarded to Public Health Wales to transform the core health protection digital system so it could manage major incidents and mass contact tracing and improve sharing of data. A full business case for the digital health protection programme was submitted to the Welsh Government on 31 October and a supplier has been awarded the tender. Work is underway to commence the first phase of the programme which involves an initial build of the new system which is scheduled to complete in March 2026.

Progress continues to be made on the introduction of the Welsh Emergency Care Data Set, the new national standard for emergency care data collection in Wales to improve emergency care planning, performance monitoring, and patient outcomes across the Welsh NHS. The target for full adoption of the dataset remains in place, Autumn 2026; however, there remains the risk that other operational pressures could delay the implementation beyond this date.

A table-top exercise undertaken in summer 2025 with key partners across the health and care system helped assess pandemic preparedness on health and care data collection and sharing and Exercise PEGASUS provided a valuable opportunity to test and refine plans in relation to data and research. Both exercises have identified and prioritised further activity to ensure ongoing improvement in the use of data for pandemic preparedness. This will include the testing of developments like the National Data and Analytics Platform, which will further strengthen Wales' ability to share timely, governed health data with partners during emergency responses.

Recommendation 6: A regular UK-wide pandemic response exercise

The Welsh Government participated fully in Exercise PEGASUS, a UK-wide tier 1 pandemic preparedness exercise involving all four nations. The exercise tested Wales' strategic and operational response across three live-play phases:

Phase 1: Emergence – early detection and escalation of a novel pathogen.

Phase 2: Containment – implementation of public health and social measures and coordination across          agencies.

Phase 3: Mitigation – managing widespread transmission and sustaining essential services.

The Welsh Government adopted a cross-government approach to its engagement with the exercise across all three phases, with Cabinet Members working alongside senior officials to lead our response during the live play days. The Permanent Secretary chaired the Wales Civil Contingencies Committee meetings held after each live play day.

Key partners, including Public Health Wales, local resilience forums, local authorities and the third sector were also involved in the exercise, which will continue into 2026, with a final phase focused on recovery and long-term resilience.

Following a comprehensive evaluation process, a report on the findings and learning from Exercise PEGASUS will be published in late 2026. The Welsh Government is committed to embedding lessons identified into pandemic planning, the Wales Resilience Framework and broader emergency preparedness systems.

Recommendation 7: Publication of findings and lessons from civil emergency exercises

The Welsh Government is committed to transparency and continual improvement in civil emergency preparedness. For Tier 1 civil emergency exercises, we publish findings and lessons learned, except where legitimate security or public safety considerations applies.

Our lessons management system will be central to capturing insights from exercises, incidents, and inquiries, and ensuring actions are followed up. We have engaged the UK Resilience Academy to work with the Wales Resilience Partnership to explore opportunities for a lessons-management system to capture lessons from exercises, incidents and inquiries, which will be most appropriately addressed by partners at a pan-Wales level. This approach supports the Wales Resilience Framework principles of efficiency and a once-for-Wales approach. 

Recommendation 8: Published reports on whole-system civil emergency preparedness and resilience

As set out in our previous update, one of the four objectives of the Wales Resilience Framework is enhanced transparency, communication and engagement. We have committed to provide an annual statement to the Senedd about civil contingencies risks and resilience, the first of which I set out in May 2025, when announcing the Wales Resilience Framework. We expect the next annual statement to be made in summer 2026.

We will lay a State of Resilience Report in the Senedd every four years, which will cover levels of preparedness across Wales. It will consider assessments from organisational, regional and national levels. The first report is due to be published in 2029.

Given the commitments to publish annual resilience statements and a four‑yearly State of Resilience Report, I consider this recommendation to be completed.

Recommendation 9: Regular use of red teams

The use of red teams to scrutinise and challenge the principles, evidence, policies and advice relating to preparedness for and resilience to whole-system civil emergencies is a core feature of our exercising programme and the Welsh Government continues to explore suitable opportunities for increasing red teaming capability. In parallel, we are securing independent scrutiny for all our major projects to help refine our approaches.

Our aim is to ensure there are sustainable red teaming capabilities within the Welsh Government and within the response community. We are working with government partners, the statutory responder and voluntary sector community to identify the most appropriate mechanisms to build this capability. A component of the work programme of the Wales Resilience Partnership is to explore existing independent assessment and auditing processes (including red teaming). In addition, to identify options for regular independent auditing of the effectiveness of preparedness structures and frequency and quality of training and exercising in Wales.

We are establishing independent assessment and auditing processes for our activities, including an independent review of our Crisis Management Concept of Operation once it has been finalised. We have drawn on the lessons learned from more than 30 separate incidents in 2025 to develop our new crisis management processes and further stressed tested these during Exercise PEGASUS.  

Recommendation 10: A UK-wide independent statutory body for whole-system civil emergency preparedness and resilience

The Welsh Government is consulting with the UK Government and devolved governments to improve independent oversight of emergency preparedness in line with recommendation 10. In response, the Cabinet Office is piloting an expert panel model designed to challenge assumptions, mitigate group think, and provide rigorous assurance on whole-system risks that could give rise to pan-UK catastrophic impacts. Building on lessons learned from this pilot, the UK Resilience Academy will lead a programme of expert panels from summer 2026, ensuring systematic review of preparedness for whole-system risks. These panels, chaired by independent specialists, will examine plans through document reviews and interviews, including with Welsh Government officials, with findings and government responses published subject to security considerations. This collaborative approach reflects UK Covid-19 Inquiry chair Baroness Hallett's emphasis on improving co-ordination across the four nations and embeds independent challenge at the heart of resilience governance.

This initiative complements our own strengthened governance arrangements, including the responder-focused Wales Resilience Forum and Welsh Government's internal Risk and Preparedness Committee, which oversee risk management and emergency planning. We are contributing to the design and operation of these expert panels to ensure Welsh perspectives are integrated and that scrutiny reflects devolved responsibilities. This work aligns with our commitment to transparency and continuous improvement, and will help deliver a more robust, evidence-based approach to civil contingencies.

By embedding external expertise and fostering a culture of challenge, we aim to enhance preparedness for future emergencies and uphold public confidence in our resilience arrangements.