Almost half of kids skip lessons during GCSE year, says new CSJ analysis

Nearly half of all children taking their GCSEs are regularly avoiding the classroom, according to a major think tank.
 
Shock new analysis from the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) has revealed that 39 per cent of Year 11 children are persistently absent during their GCSE exam term.
 
The CSJ warns that ignoring these high levels of absence is causing children to move straight from school into unemployment. The latest government figures, released today, show that nearly 1 in 7 young people are not in education, employment or training (Neet).
 
The CSJ say that, five years on from the Covid-19 pandemic, the damaging impact of school closures continues to grow.   
 
In today's government data for summer term 2024, 172,938 children were severely absent from school, missing half or more of their school time. This is an increase of 9.6 per cent compared to the previous record – summer term 2023 - and almost triple (187 per cent higher) pre-pandemic levels.  
 
The CSJ's analysis also reveals that over 1.6 million children – nearly one in four – were persistently absent in summer term 2024, missing ten per cent or more of school time.
 
This is a slight decrease compared to summer term 2023, but up 6.2 per cent on the previous spring term, and 78.3 per cent higher than pre-pandemic.   
 
Unless school absence returns to pre-pandemic levels, the CSJ argue that a further 20,000 additional pupils every year are at risk of becoming Neets.
 
Beth Prescott, CSJ Education lead, said: 
 
“Five years on from the Pandemic, the school absence crisis continues to rip the futures away from our children with record levels of so-called “Ghost Children”, 1 in 4 kids persistently absent, and nearly half of those doing GCSEs skipping school.  
 
“The Secretary of State for Education is right to prioritise this crisis and the need to rebuild the partnership between home, school and the Government.  We urgently need to get parents on board and support schools through the national rollout of attendance mentors.  
 
“If the Government is to deliver growth and reduce the spiralling benefits bill, then it must get to grips with school absence which is a direct contributor to children ending up not in education, employment or training.” 
 
ENDS

Notes to editors

1. The Neet statistics produced today by the Department for Education are official statistics in development, based on estimates from the Labour Force Survey 

2. Methodology of the CSJ's Neet analysis: The CSJ's analysis and estimates of the risks of additional Neet school leavers are based on DfE school population and persistent absence data, as well as a Leeds Institute for Data Analytics study on the link between school absence and becoming Neet. A range of factors are involved in shaping employment and educational outcomes, but school absence is strongly linked to a range of negative outcomes controlling for a range of other disadvantages. A cohort study of 23,000 pupils by the Leeds Institute for Data Analytics found that 19 per cent of persistently absent pupils became persistently Neet aged 16-18. The CSJ used the DfE's annualised pupil headcount projections to estimate 2024/25-2028/29 secondary school leavers, then applied the persistently Neet rate from the Leeds Institute study to the school population projections for 15 year olds, comparing a scenario which assumes the rate of persistent absence to remain at its elevated level (30.5 per cent) vs a scenario where absence returns to its pre-pandemic level (16.2 per cent). This suggests there is a risk of over 90,000 additional pupils becoming persistently Neet 16–18-year-olds over the course of the parliament (2024/24-2028/29).