The Northern Ireland population is projected to rise to 1.95
million in mid-2033 before falling to 1.93 million in mid-2047.
This is an increase of 1.1 per cent over the 25 years from
mid-2022. This is one of the findings of the latest statistics
published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research
Agency (NISRA).
Net migration is projected to cause a population increase of
53,800 while natural change is projected to cause a population
decrease of 32,400 people between mid-2022 and mid-2047. There
are 463,500 projected births and 495,900 projected deaths over
the period.
The projections show the continuing ageing of the Northern
Ireland population. The population aged 65 and over is projected
to increase by 49.6 per cent between mid-2022 and mid-2047.
Likewise, the population aged 85 and over is projected to
increase by 122.2 per cent over the same period.
By mid-2027, there is projected to be more people aged 65 and
over (377,700 people) than children (aged 0-15) (366,700 people)
in Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland is projected to have the lowest population
growth (1.1 per cent) between mid-2022 and mid-2047 across the
UK. England is projected to have the highest population growth
(14.5 per cent), followed by Wales (10.3 per cent), then Scotland
(6.2 per cent).
These latest projections result in population figures that are
generally lower than those reported in the 2021-based interim
projections. By mid-2047, it is projected that there will be
71,700 (3.6 per cent) less people in Northern Ireland than
previously projected in mid-2021.
Notes to editors:
- Statistics for the 2022-based Population Projections for
Northern Ireland are available at https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/2022-based-population-projections-northern-ireland.
- Northern Ireland population projections provide an estimate
of the future size and age structure of the population of
Northern Ireland, which is used as a common framework for
national planning and policy development in areas such as
housing, healthcare and education.
- Projections are the result of applying long-term assumptions
based on recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration to
the base population. These projections use the Northern Ireland
2022 mid-year population estimates as the base population, these
are available at: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/2022-mid-year-population-estimates-northern-ireland
With further information on the methodology used to create the
projections available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsqmi
- These projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to
predict the impact that future government policies, changing
economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic
behaviour.
- National population projections, by age and sex, are produced
for the UK, and each of the UK constituent countries, by the
Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of the National
Statistician and the Registrars General of Scotland and Northern
Ireland. National population projections are calculated in
collaboration and agreement with the statistical organisations
for Northern Ireland and Scotland (Northern Ireland Statistics
and Research Agency [NISRA], and National Records of Scotland
[NRS]). The calculation of population projections for all
UK countries at the same time ensures that users of the
population projections can work on consistent assumptions.
Full results of the 2022-based national population projections
for the United Kingdom and all UK countries, are available at:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections
Population projections and additional analyses specific to
Scotland can be found at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/population-migration-and-households/
