How can the Conservative Party recover from electoral
catastrophe? A new report from the Centre for
Policy Studies, built around an extensive programme of
quantitative and qualitative research led by James Frayne,
argues that the party needs to return to the ‘common ground'
first identified by Margaret Thatcher and Keith Joseph in the
1970s.
Built on an in-depth programme of pre-election polling, as well
as focus groups and immersive research in three key electoral
battlegrounds – Guildford, Swindon, and the Don Valley.
The report finds that there is still a viable electoral coalition
available to the Conservatives, if the party can overcome the
stigma from its failures in government – in particular over the
economy, the NHS and migration, and the perception that it only
cared about the rich.
Strikingly, those who left the party in 2024 and those who stayed
with it display a remarkable overlap in values – especially when
it comes to policies such as immigration, law and order, welfare
and the family. Frayne argues that there is no tension on these
issues between ‘tacking left' and ‘tacking right' – indeed, that
voters do not see these issues in those terms at all.
However, the report also warns that it will be much harder to
persuade Tory voters to support many of the reforms that the
country needs. In particular, potential Conservative supporters
are – like other voters – hugely attached to the NHS, and hugely
nervous about anything that might harm it, including lowering
taxes. They are also hostile towards the wealthy and big
business, although strongly supportive of small, local
businesses.
Tory voters also tended to be supportive of Net Zero, and not to
be aware of many of the debates around ‘woke ideology' that
transfix those in Westminster: their focus is firmly on
day-to-day concerns, which they expect politicians to prioritise.
Key findings from the polling include:
- Among Tory defectors, the most popular explanation for why
they were not voting Tory was that the party had allowed
immigration to reach record levels
- The Tories having become too right-wing, or too left-wing,
were the least popular explanations of all those put forward
- Only 18% of 2019 Tories said they could never vote for the
Tories again, and 52% of the electorate were open to the prospect
in theory
- The top policy priorities among both Tory voters and the
general public were to reduce NHS waiting lists, make it
easier to get GP appointments, and stop so many small boats
arriving
- The biggest differences between Tory and Labour voters were
over immigration, welfare and crime and justice, on which the
overwhelming majority of potential Tory voters took a far firmer
line
- There was also extremely strong support among Tory voters for
apprenticeships, small businesses and the abolition of
inheritance tax
