New EPI research, published today, estimates that up to 300,000
children aged 5 to 15 may be missing from education in 2023, a 40
per cent increase from 2017
The analysis, which compares GP registrations with school
registrations, also finds that teenagers are more likely to
be missing from education.
Through following a single cohort, EPI research finds that over
50,000 pupils, or around 8 per cent, leave the education system
by year 11.
The pupils who leave the education system by year 11 are more
likely to be vulnerable and already marginalised, with pupils
from Traveller communities nine times more likely to leave school
early, and those who are persistently disadvantaged twice as
likely compared with pupils overall.
The report recommends that the government require schools to
record reasons for de-registering pupils. It also recommends
using existing data from health, education and local authority
data systems to ensure that vulnerable children do not fall
through the cracks, including making progress on plans to create
a mandatory register for children not in school.
Detailed findings:
- By comparing GP registrations with school registrations and
data on pupils in registered home education for the first time,
EPI finds that up to 300,000 children may be missing
entirely from education in 2023, a 40 per cent increase from
2017.[1]
-
Up to 400,000 children are estimated to be not in
school, a 50 per cent increase. According to available
data the number of formally registered home-educated children
has increased by over 100 per cent from 2017 to almost 95,000
children in 2023.
-
Additionally, using Department for Education data,
findings show that over 50,000 pupils ever registered in a
state school, or around 8 per cent of the cohort, leave the
system and are not in a mainstream school, alternative
provision or an independent school by year 11. Schools are not
required to record the reasons for pupils leaving their rolls,
and we do not know how many of these exits are due to migration
out of the country.
-
Certain groups are at a higher risk of exiting the
English education system permanently:
‣ 75 per cent of Traveller pupils and 50 per cent of
Gypsy/Roma pupils.
‣ Almost a fifth of persistently disadvantaged pupils
(those who are eligible for free
school meals for at
least 80 per cent of relevant terms) and permanently excluded
pupils.
‣ Approximately 1 in 8 care-experienced pupils.
- The number of state system exits rises significantly through
secondary school and peaks in year 10 before pupils sit their
GCSEs. Around a fifth of all exits through the primary
and secondary phases occur in year 10.
- Finally, the report looks at pupils who leave a mainstream
state school for at least one term but are re-registered by year
11. Pupils with social, emotional, or
mental health difficulties and care-experienced children were
more than twice as likely to miss a period of mainstream
education during the primary or secondary phases, compared with
the overall cohort.
Full Recommendations
-
The government should build on their existing plans to
create a register of ‘children not in school'. By
integrating data from education, health and other relevant
administrative data sources, the ONS could maintain a more
complete register on all children in contact with services in
England.
-
Schools should be required to record reasons for
removing pupils from their rolls. This would allow
better oversight of illegal exclusions, including off-rolling;
the role played by mental health issues or disengagement from
education in system exits; along with a better understanding of
the proportion of system exits related to out-migration from
the country.
-
Further research into best practices for preventing,
engaging with, providing for, and supporting children missing
or who go missing from education is necessary. Current
evidence is weak, and more investigation into and piloting of
interventions to prevent vulnerable young people from becoming
disengaged, as well as best practice for engaging children and
families who have not interacted with the education system, is
needed.
-
The ONS must continue its work to improve the
timeliness, accuracy and reliability of population
estimates. No data source can currently provide a
definitive answer on the number of children in England, let
alone the number of children missing from education. Given the
role population estimates play in policymaking and resource
allocation, combined with wider evidence that local authorities
are often unaware of the number of children in their area, the
ONS must redouble its efforts to provide timely, accurate, and
reliable estimates of the child population.
Quote
Whitney Crenna-Jennings, Associate Director, Mental
Health, Wellbeing and Inclusion at the Education Policy
Institute said:
"Many thousands of children are missing or go missing from
education in England – this is a critical issue that demands
our attention. Whilst some may be receiving a suitable
education outside of formal settings or in different countries,
this research shows that the children who go missing are often
amongst the most vulnerable in our society, potentially at risk
of harm and poor outcomes.
Our findings reveal the potential scale of the issue as well as
the urgent need for comprehensive data on children and targeted
interventions to ensure that every child receives their legal
entitlement to education.
The government must work across departments and data systems to
address data gaps and ensure the necessary support is provided
to those children who need it."
Background and methodology
The aim of this report is to derive estimates of the number of
children missing from English schools and the education system
as well as those who go missing from education at some point
through the primary and secondary phases.
To estimate the number of children not in school, we subtracted
the number of children enrolled in school from the number of
children registered in GP practices. We then pulled out those
formally registered in elective home education to arrive at an
estimate of the number of children ‘missing' from
education.
To estimate the number who go missing, we followed four cohorts
of pupils, from Reception to Year 11, finishing secondary
school in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 using data from the
Department for Education covering all pupils in England. We
counted up cases in which pupils left a school and did not
reappear in a mainstream school by Year 11, and were not
registered in alternative provision or the independent sector
in Year 11.
[1] This number may include children who have left the country or
who have died if these children are not removed from GP rolls.
