“Pain or private”: the choice patients will face under the Conservatives, as waiting lists look set to hit 10 million

Conservative neglect of the NHS will leave increasing numbers of patients forced to choose between waiting longer in pain or paying to go private, Labour will warn today, as it sets out its plan to end the Tory two-tier healthcare system.

Rishi Sunak's claim that the NHS had turned a corner was blown out of the water this week, as waiting lists increased by 34,000. It represents the third month in a row in which there was no fall. Waiting lists stand at 7.6 million, with 3.2 million waiting longer than what should be the maximum wait of 18 weeks for surgery.

On current trends, if the Conservatives are given another five years in charge, NHS waiting lists are projected to hit 10 million.

Under three different projections, assuming that NHS waiting lists will continue to grow at either the rate they have under Rishi Sunak, the past two years, or in the pre-pandemic period under the Conservatives from 2010-2019, waiting lists are set to increase to between 9 and 11 million. All three scenarios represent record lengths.

Labour is warning that such a rise will force millions more patients to turn to private healthcare if they want to be seen on time. There was already a record number of patients forced to use private healthcare thanks to record-long NHS waiting lists.

The total number of private inpatient admissions in 2023 was 898,000 (7% above 2022), more admissions than in any previous year on record. Patients without health insurance are shelling out £15,000 for hip replacements and £3,400 for cataract removal.

The last Labour government significantly reduced use of the private sector, by expanding NHS capacity. In the market review by private healthcare market analysts, Laing & Buisson, analysing the final years of the last Labour government, CEO William Laing said:

"This remarkable reduction in the privately funded share of elective surgery is not because private healthcare is in decline…. The main reason for the falling private share is that NHS funded elective surgery has been growing so much faster.”

Labour's plan to repeat the success of the last Labour government and end the Tory two-tier healthcare system includes:

• 40,000 extra appointments a week at evenings and weekends
• Double the number of NHS scanners
• The biggest expansion of NHS staff in history
• Using spare capacity in the private sector to get patients seen faster

Wes Streeting, Shadow Health Secretary, said:

“Rishi Sunak's claim that the NHS is turning a corner has been blown out of the water. The truth is that waiting lists are 350,000 longer than when he became Prime Minister and they're on the rise again.

“If the Conservatives are given another five years in charge, waiting lists will hit 10 million, and more and more patients will be forced to pay to go private to get treated on time. That's the choice for patients under the Tories: pain or private? Patients face double taxation on health: they pay their taxes, and then pay the Tory health tax if they want to be treated on time.

“Labour will never leave ordinary people to waiting longer, while there is capacity to treat them. The NHS will buy spare capacity in the private sector and pay for patients to be treated faster, free at the point of use.

“In the long-run, we want to make the NHS so good, that no one ever needs to go private. That's what the last Labour government did - by the time we left office in 2010 use of the private sector had fallen off a cliff. We did it before and we will do it again.

“We will provide an extra 40,000 appointments a week on evenings and weekends, so the NHS can be there for us all when we need it, paid for by clamping down on tax dodgers.”

Ends

Notes

1. NHS waiting lists are rising again in the latest figures https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/rtt-waiting-times/

1. Spire Healthcare prices https://www.spirehealthcare.com/spire-cheshire-hospital/treatments/a-z/hip-replacement-surgery/ https://www.spirehealthcare.com/spire-cheshire-hospital/treatments/a-z/cataract-removal-surgery/

1. Quotes taken from Laing & Buisson, Laing's Healthcare Market Review 2011-2012

1. Modelling three scenarios based on rising waiting lists under the Conservatives, it is projected that NHS waiting lists will rise to 10 million by the end of the next Parliament.

• If the NHS waiting list increases at the rate it has over the past two years, it will hit well over 10 million.
• Since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, the NHS waiting list has increased by more than 350,000. If the waiting list increases at this rate, it will hit 9 million by 2029.
• If the NHS waiting list increases at the same rate that it did between 2010 and 2019 over the next five years, waiting lists will hit over 10 million.

Methodology:

NHS waiting list over last two years

• In May 2022, the NHS waiting list stood at 6.67m. In April 2024 it stood at 7.57m. This represents a monthly compound growth rate of 0.55%. Applied to the current waiting list for all months up to July 2029 inclusive, this would leave the waiting list at 10.7 million.

NHS waiting list since Rishi became PM

• In October 2022 when Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, waiting lists were at 7.21 million, and are now at 7.57. This represents a monthly compound growth rate of around 0.27%. Applied to the current waiting list for all months up to July 2029 inclusive, this would leave the waiting list at 8.97m

NHS waiting list pre-pandemic

• In April 2010, the NHS waiting list was at 2.53 million, and by December 2019 was at 4.57. This represents a compound monthly growth rate of 0.51%. Applied to the current waiting list for all months up to July 2029 inclusive, this would leave the waiting list at 10.4 million.