Rachel Reeves speech in response to the Conservative manifesto

Good afternoon.

Earlier today, the Conservative Party published its manifesto for the general election.

I want to respond directly to their plans. 

Because we need to be absolutely clear about the choice at this election. 

What we saw this morning was a desperate wish list of unfunded policies from a weak Prime Minister. 

We know where these sorts of unfunded promises from Conservative Prime Ministers lead: 

They lead to higher mortgages, leaving you and your family worse off. 

They've done it before, and their manifesto today is proof that they will do it all over again. 

This is a recipe for five more years of Tory chaos, which will leave the British people paying the price. 

Today, I want to address directly the cost of the Conservative manifesto:

The money is not there…

… and it will mean £4,800 more on your mortgage.  

This election falls at a crucial moment for the British economy. 

Fourteen years of Conservative government has brought us to this point. 

Fourteen years of political chaos.

Fourteen years of rising taxes and weak growth.

Resulting in the first Parliament on record with living standards lower at its end than they were at the start.

Our national debt is at its highest level since the 1960s.

And, while their rhetoric today is about tax cuts…

…. their record is tax rises. 

Twenty six tax rises in this Parliament alone;

Yielding the highest tax burden in seventy years. 

The Conservatives are gaslighting you.

No one will believe their claims. 

I have been clear throughout my time as Shadow Chancellor:

I want taxes on working people to be lower.

In the last Parliament, I opposed tax rises;

And I supported tax cuts, including cuts to National Insurance – but only when they were fully funded.

Labour's manifesto will contain an iron-clad commitment:

There will be no increase in income tax, national insurance or VAT under a Labour government for the duration of the next Parliament. 

But we will only cut taxes when the money is there.

By contrast, the Tories offer promises they cannot fund, from savings they cannot find. 

And when it comes to the plans in this Tory manifesto, the money is simply not there;

And it will mean £4,800 more on your mortgage. 

To pretend otherwise is dishonest, and it is irresponsible. 

Over the last four and a half hours, we have gone through the Conservative manifesto line by line. 

They claim their plans are fully costed and fully funded. 

But analysis we have conducted since publication has identified £71 billion of unfunded commitments over the course of the next parliament.

The consequences of an increase in day-to-day borrowing to fund the commitments made in this manifesto would amount to a second Tory mortgage bombshell.

Because higher borrowing on this scale would force the Bank of England to raise interest rates. 

The result would be an increase in the average mortgage totalling £4,800 over the Parliament.

This is serious.

I worked as an economist at the Bank of England. 

I know the importance of sound money, and getting a grip on the public finances. 

If these Conservative policies are followed through, it poses a real threat to our economy and to household incomes.  

Now I want to be transparent about the way we've reached these figures. 

Because I am determined that the Labour Party will hold ourselves – that I will hold myself – to a higher standard than the Conservatives hold themselves. 

So we have set out clearly in the document we're publishing today the logic and the workings behind these numbers.

In particular, I want to draw attention to five serious errors in the Conservatives' policy prospectus. 

Let me take them in turn.

First, they have spent much of the first three weeks of this campaign pushing their National Service proposal;

But their costings for that plan omit the costs of equipment, accommodation or training for 30,000 new military recruits.

On any reasonable assessment, that plan will cost double their costings – and it would consume the entire revenue they can reasonably expect to raise from cracking down on tax avoidance. 

That leaves many of their remaining plans unfunded.

Second, the Tories claim that that crackdown on tax evasion and avoidance could save £6 billion. 

But the truth is, despite mimicking a Labour's plan, they have failed to account for the near £900 million of upfront investment that is needed to meet that pledge. 

Third, the Tories claim that they can make more than £1 billion of efficiency savings from government agencies.

But the truth is, they have provided no detail whatsoever. That is not a credible plan. 

Fourth, the Tories claim they can raise £1 billion from scrapping poor performing university courses;

But the truth is, because they have no plan to cap the number of student places, that plan falls apart if students simply choose to study a different course. 

And fifth, the Tories claim they can make £12 billion in savings from welfare. 

But the truth is, that claim is simply not credible.  

It is true that under the Conservatives the welfare bill has spiralled. 

Since 2019, spending on benefits to support disabled people and those with health conditions has risen in real terms by £20 billion.

And under Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister, the taxpayer has been losing £1 million every single hour to benefit fraud and error. 

There are savings to be made.

Our manifesto will set out plans to cut the NHS backlog and get people back into work, to achieve exactly that. 

But the idea that the Conservatives' proposals can save £12 billion is pure fiction. 

Reform of the Work Capability Assessments... reform of fit notes, increased sanctions for people out of work more than a year, and increased funding for mental health…

… all announced last year, all included in the OBR baseline. 

This is not new money. 

Each of the other three proposals are no more than vague ambitions with no detail of how this could produce the savings they aim for.  

Of seven separate pledges on welfare that they made today, in every case, the money has already either been banked by the OBR, or their plans offer no savings at all. 

Their much heralded revenue raiser will produce not one single penny of new money relative to the latest OBR forecast. 

We've been here before. 

It was less than two years ago that the Conservatives set out tens of billions of pounds of unfunded commitments. 

They crashed the economy, sent mortgage costs spiralling, and put pensions in peril. 

In the end, you got the mortgage increase – but you didn't get the tax cut. 

And that is exactly what you will get again. 

‘Don't judge fourteen years on 49 days', the Prime Minister says.

And they should be judged on the record of those fourteen years. 

But the damage done in those 49 days will last for years. 

Last year, 6.4 million households across England and Wales saw their rent increase or had to re-mortgage;

A further one and a half million households either have remortgaged or will remortgage this year;

Paying, on average, an additional £240 every single month.

And this manifesto is final confirmation, if any were needed, that they have not learned their lesson. 

This is about a Tory future, not just the past. 

A recipe for five more years of chaos.  

Cast your mind back to a little over eighteen months ago. 

Rishi Sunak was supposed to be the antidote to Liz Truss.

He was supposed to steady the ship.

You have to ask – what has happened to that Rishi Sunak? 

Instead of drawing a line under the chaos, he has offered up the next chapter of it. 

More undeliverable promises from an ungovernable party.

Just two weeks ago, Rishi Sunak's Chancellor said that a third cut to national insurance wouldn't move the dial. 

And now we find that, in a last minute desperate scramble, that is exactly what they are proposing – with no plan to pay for it. 

And here's the thing.

If they did believe the sums added up;

If they thought that they would get the all-clear from the Office for Budget Responsibility;

Then they wouldn't have put these proposals in an election manifesto;

They'd have put them in a budget. 

They know the numbers don't add up.  

And the Conservatives' desperation will put our economy at risk.

The money is not there and it will mean £4,800 more on your mortgage.  

You will see something very different when we publish our manifesto on Thursday. 

A fully costed, fully funded, credible plan.

I will not raise taxes on working people.

And I will not raise income tax, national insurance and VAT over the duration of the next Parliament.

In fact, I want taxes to be lower.

But I will not play fast and loose with the public finances.

The change we offer will be built – can only be built – on the basis of iron discipline.

I know that stability is the foundation of economic success.

We will not enter an arms race over unfunded election promises.

We have started as we mean to go on: 

Every policy we announce, and every line in our manifesto, will be fully costed and fully funded. 

And that is the attitude I will take into the Treasury.

A Labour government will not waiver from tough spending rules. 

And I will introduce a new fiscal lock;

So that any government making significant and permanent changes to tax and spending… 

… will be subject to a forecast from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility…

… so that there can be no repeat of the mini budget. 

That is my commitment to you – a commitment the Conservatives will not match.

Over the next three weeks, we will work every day to expose what the Conservatives have done to our country. 

To expose what they threaten to do, given five more years. 

And to offer a credible, responsible alternative.

That is the choice at this election:

Five more years of Conservative chaos, which will mean £4,800 more on your mortgage;

Or stability with a changed Labour Party.