The government regularly claims that school funding and funding
per pupil in England are at record highs. Such claims are, to put
it mildly, unhelpful to public debate. Prior to 2010, school
funding per pupil was at a record high almost every year. The
fact that this has not been the case since 2010 just reflects the
fact that we saw a historically high real-terms cut in school
spending per pupil of 9% between 2010 and 2019.
The actual costs faced by schools in 2024–25 are likely to grow
at a faster rate (about 5%) than total school funding per pupil
(less than 4%). As a result, the purchasing power of school
budgets is likely to fall by 1% in 2024–25. In contrast, standard
measures of inflation (the GDP deflator) are due to rise by 2% in
2024–25, which implies a 2% real-terms rise in school spending
per pupil in 2024–25. The reality for schools is likely to be
much harder. If the government wanted to compensate schools fully
for the expected cost rises, school funding in England would need
to rise by a further £700 million over and above existing plans
for 2024–25.
On current projections, we expect that the purchasing power of
school funding per pupil will still be 5% below 2010 levels in
2024. If the government wanted to go even further and compensate
schools for this 5% loss in purchasing power of school budgets,
it would require a total of £3.2 billion in extra funding.
Luke Sibieta, a Research Fellow at IFS and author of the
comment, said:
'Following on from a 9% real-terms cut to school spending between
2010 and 2019, the present government has been delivering boosts
to school funding and was just about on course to get school
spending per pupil in England back to 2010 levels by this year.
However, schools have also been seeing rapid cost rises from
rising teacher pay awards, large rises in support staff pay and
spikes in food and energy costs. This coming year, we currently
expect schools’ costs will rise by 5%. With funding per pupil
increasing by less than 4%, we expect the purchasing power of
school budgets to fall by 1% this year. If the government wanted
to compensate schools fully for the expected cost rises, school
funding in England would need to rise by a further £700 million
over and above existing plans for this coming year.'