A Net Zero
Workforce
By committing to the Net Zero target, the UK has already embarked
on a transition that will materially transform much of the
economy; it is an opportunity for growth in high-quality jobs,
distributing opportunities across UK regions. Around 250,000 jobs
have already been created in the transition, but the full
workforce opportunities will only be realised with stronger
policies to harness the potential and manage the risks. A
hands-off approach to the Net Zero workforce from Government will
not work.
In a new briefing, the CCC finds that the majority of UK workers
will see no major impacts from the transition. The largest
changes are in sectors with a core role in the delivery of Net
Zero – only a fifth of the current total workforce:
- Two-thirds of these core workers are in sectors that can grow
over the transition, especially buildings construction and
retrofit and electric battery manufacturing.
- Around 7% of UK workers are in sectors that will gradually
redirect their products and services. These are largely sectors
that will transition from use of fossil fuels to low-carbon
methods, including cement and steel.
- Less than 1% of UK workers are in high-emitting sectors that
are likely to phase down over the transition. This includes oil
and gas, where extraction must decline.
Net Zero offers the potential for significant net employment
creation in the UK, with estimates of between 135,000 and 725,000
net new jobs in low-carbon sectors in sectors such as buildings
retrofit, renewable energy generation and electric vehicles. But
growth of jobs is not guaranteed. It will require active
reskilling and upskilling of the workforce in key areas, with the
need for government support.
, Chairman of the Climate Change
Committee, said: “The UK has committed to Net Zero. The
only question is whether the Government intends to get there in a
way that benefits workers or leaves them behind.
“This is a unique moment to tailor our approach to skills and
jobs, in the certainty of achieving the legal goal. A Net Zero
workforce means secure employment for the future. This is an
opportunity for the Government to bring real meaning to
‘levelling up’.”
UK is slow to respond
The introduction of the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act
and the EU’s proposed Green Deal Industrial Plan have increased
the risk to competitiveness of the UK in some key areas of the
Net Zero transition.
The UK risks missing out on opportunities to capture low-carbon
market shares by not supporting skills that attract investment to
the UK. Manufacturing priorities like electric vehicles and
battery production face competitive pressure from new ‘green’
subsidies for inland manufacturing in the United States and
European Union. The UK must defend its competitive advantage in
Net Zero sectors like hydrogen and carbon capture in the face of
these new international pressures.
Learning from previous transitions
The UK labour market has seen significant transitions in the
past, including the move towards a largely service-based economy
which brought opportunities to many across the country. There is
also a legacy of highly disruptive transitions from the decline
of coal and steel in the 1970s and 1980s, characterised by abrupt
business closures in areas of concentrated regional employment.
Net Zero need not carry the same risks. Decarbonisation will
reduce demand for certain goods and services, but the few sectors
that may see job losses will see a pace of change more gradual
than the coal and steel transitions of the past. Clarity on
Government’s aims will give businesses and workers time to
respond.
Net Zero can offer employment for economically deprived areas
through the ability to direct the necessary programme of
investment:
- Sectors that are expected to see the largest growth in
employment include buildings construction and retrofit,
transport, and low-carbon energy supply. These are spread across
the UK. They are also the sectors that will see some of the
fastest transitions, driven by the roll out low-carbon technology
at pace.
- The first major UK sites for decarbonised industry are
expected to be in The Humber and South Wales, exploiting hydrogen
and carbon capture. Other clusters could be located in
Grangemouth in Scotland, Teesside, Merseyside and Southampton.
These areas already employ manufacturing workers – the North of
England, the East Midlands, and Yorkshire and the Humber
represent 16%, 9%, and 21% of energy-intensive manufacturing jobs
respectively.
- Energy supply and construction are key Net Zero sectors which
have historically had an under-representation of women or ethnic
minorities. Through targeted support, Net Zero offers an
opportunity to increase diversity in these sectors.
A key finding is that Government intervention is not
necessary in every sector of the economy. Clear policy direction
for each sector is important however, combined with a responsive
education and skill system. Options for developing the Net Zero
workforce are not being considered systematically across
Government. Strong, targeted support is needed in the
Government’s forthcoming ‘Net Zero and Nature Workforce Action
Plan’.
Notes to Editors
- Estimates of job creation and losses were extracted from
close to 30 reports, aggregated up and summarised. This
assessment is not exhaustive of all sectors of the economy.
Conclusions on the total employment impact of Net Zero are highly
policy dependent. The ranges identified are instead shown to
indicate the potential scale of change.
