UK military advisor, Ian Stubbs, says the success of Ukraine’s
air defence in protecting its citizens should not distract from
the horrific tactics of the Kremlin.
"Thank you, Madam Chair. Over the past week, Russia has continued
to launch large-scale missile and drone strikes on towns and
cities across Ukraine. Yesterday, Kyiv endured a particularly
intense attack. Thankfully, reports indicate that most of the
missiles and drones were intercepted by Ukrainian air defence,
significantly reducing the potential scale of civilian
casualties. A sober demonstration that air defence systems
gifted, by international partners of Ukraine, are saving lives.
However, the success of Ukraine’s air defences in protecting its
citizens and civilian infrastructure should not distract from the
calculated and callous actions of Russia’s military leadership.
Actions that aim to bring terror and suffering to Ukrainian
people – all because they have demonstrated unwavering courage
and resolve to stand up to a brutal and barbaric invader. Russia
must know that these horrific tactics have not and will not work;
they will not compensate for its failings on the battlefield.
Madam Chair, Russia’s invasion is stalling. In Bakhmut, despite
months of attempts and thousands of casualties, Russia still has
not managed to achieve tactical success. Over the last five days,
reports indicate that elements of Russia’s 72nd Separate Motor
Rifle Brigade withdrew in bad order from their positions to the
south of the city. Ukrainian assaults have also forced back the
Russian frontline to the north-west. In total, Ukrainian forces
are assessed to have re-taken nearly 20 square km around Bakhmut
over the last two weeks.
This has come at great cost to Russia. Since summer 2022, Wagner
and regular Russian forces have likely suffered well over 30,000
personnel killed and wounded in the Popasna-Bakhmut sector alone.
Russian disorder on the battlefield is seemingly fuelling further
dysfunction in the already fraught relationship between Wagner
and the Russian Ministry of Defence. On 11 May 2023, Wagner owner
Yevgeny Prigozhin criticised the Russian armed forces for fleeing
during the Ukrainian advances on the Bakhmut flanks. He said that
gains made with “blood and lives” were being thrown away. He
called Russia’s so-called “Special Military Operation” a “stupid
war” and speculated over what will happen when soldiers realise
they have been set up by those “sitting in mahogany offices”.
Madam Chair, more widely, if we look at the state of Russia’s
invasion force in Ukraine there is a similarly telling situation.
The current Russian Combined Grouping of Forces (CGF) looks
similar in size and composition to the invasion force of 24
February last year, but it is not. Back then, the force consisted
of professional soldiers; was largely equipped with reasonably
modern vehicles; and had been regularly exercised, aspiring to
conduct complex, joint operations. But the professional
force failed to achieve the strategic and operational goals it
was set.
Now the CGF consists mostly of poorly trained mobilised
reservists and is increasingly reliant on antiquated equipment,
with many of its units severely under-strength. The CGF now
routinely only conducts simple, infantry-based operations. Russia
has failed to command air superiority over Ukraine; a theatre of
war which Russia created, and which Russia chose to fight. Recent
reports of four Russian military aircraft lost over Russia’s
Bryansk region indicates Russia’s ability to operate safely in
its own airspace is now compromised.
How can the Russian military leadership possibly think that a
force of largely amateur soldiers will succeed where Russia’s
professional army has already failed? Russia must realise that it
can never win in Ukraine. If it keeps fighting, it will keep
losing.
Madam Chair, the UK and its international partners are steadfast
in our support for Ukraine as demonstrated by the continued
provision of military assistance. On Monday, our Prime Minster
met with President Zelenskyy and announced the UK’s further
gifting of hundreds of air defence missiles and unmanned aerial
systems including new long-range attack drones with a range of
over 200km. This package of military assistance was in addition
to provision of Storm Shadow precision missiles announced last
week.
Madam Chair, Ukraine has regained territory and liberated
thousands of Ukrainian people thanks to the awe-inspiring bravery
of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the resilience of the Ukrainian
people and overwhelming international support. Together, the UK
and partners are ensuring that Ukraine will win. Our united
approach of providing Ukraine with the support it needs to defend
itself and push Russia out of Ukraine’s sovereign territory is
the swiftest, and only, path to a just and lasting peace. Thank
you."