In summer 2021, each month 15,000 or so working-age people
started receiving disability benefits (Personal Independence
Payment, PIP). That monthly figure had remained little changed
for years. By July 2022 (the latest data) it had doubled to
30,000, with no sign of slowing down. The increase in claimants
is seen across medical conditions and ages, with the fastest rise
among teenagers, where claim rates have tripled. With no change
in the number of people seeing an end to their PIP claim (e.g.
after recovering from their disability), this implies a growing
number of recipients: currently there are 2.8 million claimants,
whose payments cost the government £15 billion per year. This
sudden increase seems to be driven by a worsening of health
across the population – something for which there is now
accumulating evidence across a number of sources.
This is from a new IFS report which also finds that:
-
Around a third of the new claims are for mental or
behavioural conditions, although among claimants under
25 that figure rises to 70%. The share of claims that
are for mental illnesses, has – like other conditions – changed
remarkably little during the rapid rise.
-
Rising applications to disability benefits has led to a
backlog of around 250,000 people waiting for their
claim to be assessed. So far this does not appear to have
affected waiting times, though they remain long at 18 weeks on
average.
-
Survey data on the working-age population as a whole
show that health has been getting worse, with 9.6%
(4.0 million) now reporting that their health limits their
daily activities “a lot”, up from 8.5% (3.5 million) at the
start of 2021. Here too we see an increase across all major
types of condition. There has also been a significant rise in
the number of (non-COVID) working-age deaths in 2021 and 2022,
compared to pre-pandemic years.
Sam Ray-Chaudhuri, a Research Economist at IFS and an
author of the report, said, “Almost as remarkable as the
rise in disability benefit claims itself is how widespread it is.
We see a doubling in claims at essentially every age and for most
major conditions, from mental illness to arthritis and back pain.
Worsening health seems to be behind the rise, but precisely why
health is getting worse is a puzzle of its own. Whatever the
cause, significantly greater spending on disability benefits
looks like it will be one of the consequences of this concerning
trend. Already we spend £15 billion a year on working-age
disability benefits – this rise could certainly add several
billion more, and indeed the Office for Budget Responsibility
have increased their forecast for spending accordingly.”
ENDS
Notes to Editor
'The number of new disability benefit claimants has doubled
in a year' is an IFS report by Robert Joyce, Sam
Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters.
