Briefing paper prepared by the Library of the House of
Commons
China’s interest in the Middle East has primarily been economic
but is growing more strategic. With the launch of China’s “Belt
and Road Initiative” (BRI) and its growing demand for imported
oil, the Gulf has assumed greater significance to it.
While China’s influence is growing, it remains far less substantial as a
security partner for the Gulf states than the US.
China’s attempts to balance its relations with Israel, the Arab
Gulf States and Iran also creates its own challenges—these states
often being in tension with each other.
This briefing sets out China’s regional priorities. It then
provides a snapshot of Chinese trade and security engagement with
the Arab Gulf powers, analysis of a China-Iran-Russia axis, and
the significance of this for US-led interests.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative
In 2013, China launched the Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI). This infrastructure project stretches
from East Asia to Europe and takes the form of China making
investments overseas in trade and communication networks, as well
as enhancing cooperation through trade and other agreements.
Stated aims are to
strengthen China’s trade, support development, and to boost
China’s economy. The Middle East is central to several of the
BRI’s economic corridors, including one through Iran, to link
China to Europe.
China is an important trading partner
China has agreed high-level
partnerships with Iran and all Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and
Oman) other than Bahrain. In 2022, it has pledged
to renew free trade talks.
In 2021, the value of China’s bilateral
trade with GCC states and Iran was US$248 billion. This
was four times greater than their trade with the US.
In 2021, Saudi Arabia was also China’s largest single
source of oil worldwide. However, since Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine in February 2022 China is importing more Russian
oil as US allies seek to diversify away from Russian
imports. This may reduce the Gulf’s importance to China.
China: Military and technology in the Gulf
The militarisation of China-Gulf relationships is relatively
undeveloped compared to Russia and the US. From 2010 to 2020,
China provided less than 2% of GCC arms
imports. Most arms sales have been drones,
and Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been the primary purchasers.
China conducted military exercises with
Saudi Arabia in 2019, and pledges greater
cooperation with GCC states. However, these have been
balanced with military exercises with Iran. Reports in 2021 of
a Chinese military base in the
UAE, suggesting a strategic shift, have been denied by China
and the UAE.
Current US concern is focused on the use of Huawei technologies
in the region. Huawei is a Chinese telecoms provider, which
successive US Administrations have judged to be a security risk. The Biden
Administration has reportedly asked the UAE to remove Huawei
from its networks by 2025, saying its use will limit
America’s ability to share information and technology.
Is there an Iran-Russia-China axis?
All three countries share a hostility to US-led influence and
have often taken similar positions internationally. For example,
all have backed the Assad regime in Syria, either
diplomatically (China) or militarily (Iran,
Russia). Iran has also blamed NATO for the war
in Ukraine. Both Russia and China support a nuclear deal with
Iran, but have called for some sanctions to be lessened.
Analysts see their relationship as an ad-hoc
one, rather than a systematic alliance. Russia and Iran, for
example, are now in competition as suppliers of sanctioned oil.
The region is also a secondary theatre to
both Russia and China, who have substantive relations with Gulf
states to balance with Iran.
What does this mean for US influence?
Successive US Administrations have sought to “pivot” to the
Asia-Pacific to compete with China. This has created
concern amongst US Gulf allies that US interest is less certain
and guaranteed. President Biden also initially sought
to distance the US from Saudi
Arabia and the UAE. However, in July 2022
Biden met the Saudi Crown Prince,
suggesting a re-setting of relations.
While China is the region’s biggest single economic partner, the
US, and allies such as France, the UK and South
Korea, remain dominant sources of
arms (PDF). China’s trade and regional stability also
remains heavily reliant on the US security presence. Both
the US and UK have substantial military forces deployed in the
Gulf region for maritime security and counter terrorism
purposes, including combatting Islamic State/Daesh.
Documents to download
China and the US in the Middle East: Iran and the Arab Gulf
Download full report
