The research was carried out by Cambridge Econometrics on behalf
of:
- the Department for International Trade (DIT)
- the Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy
(BEIS)
The report:
- uses novel methods to produce experimental estimates of the
value of UK defence exports on a delivery basis
- provides recommendations for improving these estimates
There are 2 main methodologies considered in this report.
The OTS (overseas trade
statistics) approach
The OTS approach relies on
identifying exports of goods that are ‘defence-related’ from
HMRC’s trade in goods database.
‘Defence-related’ covers products that are exported for defence
and non-defence use.
Assumptions are then developed for each product on the proportion
of the defence-related exports that are for defence use.
The Defence and Security Exports (DSE) approach
The DSE approach
maps DIT-published defence
export orders data (covering both goods and services) to
deliveries data published by the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute (SIPRI Arms Transfer Database).
The 2 approaches produce estimates of UK defence export
deliveries in the region of £6 billion to £9 billion in nominal
terms in 2017.
Of the 2 approaches, the DSE approach is
considered more reliable and comprehensive for estimating defence
export deliveries. However, it is not without limitations and
areas for further refinement of the estimates are identified in
the report.
Estimating the level of UK
defence exports on a deliveries basis: final research
report
PDF, 2.84
MB, 120 pages
Estimating the level of UK
defence exports on a delivery basis: data tables
ODS, 92 KB
