At lunchtime on Saturday, 23rd July 2022 The Rt Hon
MP will be delivering a keynote
speech at the Free Iran World Summit 2022.
has been MP for North Somerset since 1992 and has served
in Government under Prime Minister’s John Major, and . In 2020, he was the UK’s
Nominee to be Director-General of the World Trade Organization
(WTO). Prior to being elected as an MP, he was an NHS
family doctor.
is expected to say:
BEGINS
Any debate about our future relations with Iran needs to
begin with an understanding of the nature of the regime
itself. It is not the average thugocracy that we have seen
in other parts of the world, such as Putin’s Russia, but is
underpinned and supports a dangerous and extreme theocracy.
It’s roots, lets remember, go back to the Iranian revolution
itself. Ayatollah Khomeini argued that until the return of the
Twelfth ‘hidden’ Imam, senior clerics alone are qualified to
direct and control all aspects of life to protect the sharia, the
legacy of the teachings of the Koran.
That extreme theocratic position is maintained today and is
brutally underpinned by the IRGC.
It has emerged as one of the most powerful organs of the
Iranian state.
It consists of ground, naval and air arms as well as its
special forces formation, the Qods Force, with its links to
numerous militant armed groups across the Middle East,
particularly Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.
The IRGC’s most significant role is the oversight it has over
Iran’s strategic missiles and it controls large parts of the
Iranian economy and means of production. A change in regime
will not necessarily result in a diminution of their power so the
brutal treatment of political opponents and the widespread abuses
of human rights are likely to continue.
But condemning the regime is not enough.
We must also increase our support for those brave enough to
fight for democracy and freedom in Iran itself.
We have a great deal of ground to make up.
In the violence which followed the stolen election in 2009,
the international community reacted by condemning the excesses of
the military and security forces, but it did nothing to encourage
or support the demonstrators.
This stands in stark contrast to the tangible support
provided to the later Arab Spring uprisings and is regarded as a
betrayal by many in what became the Green Movement in Iran.
They wonder why the voices of so many other revolts against
tyranny have provoked the West to action, but the Iranians were
ignored.
It reinforces the historical perception of many Iranians,
with clear echoes from the Constitutional Revolution over a
century before, that the Western powers remain at best
indifferent to the plight of the Iranian people.
That needs to change.
The West’s abandonment of the democracy movement in Iran
matters, not only because we failed to give support to those who
needed it, but because we failed to reinforce the universal
nature of the values we hold and missed a historic opportunity to
show that our quarrel is not with the people of Iran but with the
leadership of the regime.
Today, at a practical level, we must decide if it is possible
to do a deal with such a regime. I have spoken extensively about
why I believe JCPOA was, and is, defective.
It does not stop Iran from becoming a nuclear state, it
merely postpones it and makes very rapid breakout slightly more
difficult.
It does nothing to deal with Iran’s ballistic missile
programme, its destabilisation of its geographic neighbours or
its export of terror into other parts of the region and the
globe.
It gave far too much away for far too little in return.
It was yet another triumph of wishful thinking over critical
analysis, a hallmark of Western policy in the last two
decades.
If it is even possible to reach any wider agreement with the
current regime that would deal with the elements I have
mentioned, I do not believe that it would be credible unless a
military option was on the table.
Without a credible military deterrent, I do not believe the
current regime, whatever was agreed, would cease in its attempts
to develop a nuclear military program, including the means of its
delivery through an advanced ballistic missile capability.
We have seen from Russia’s malignant activity in Ukraine the
way an emboldened gangster state with nuclear weapons may
behave.
Does anyone seriously wish to see that in Iran?
Let me end on a more optimistic note. Far too little
attention has been paid in Western media and too little credit
given to the UAE, Israel, and Bahrain in their signing of the
Abraham Accords, supported by the United States. Morocco
has also reached its own agreement with Israel.
Does this open up the potential of a new defence pact,
potentially supported by nuclear power, in the region – a Gulf
version of NATO?
It is certainly a subject being widely debated with many
wondering whether this is the necessary strategic counterbalance
to the toxic behaviour of the current Iranian regime.
We will see if the courage and vision of those behind the
current moves are extended to the fields of defence and
security. We wish them well not only for the safety of the
region, but for our safety too.
ENDS
will then share a panel with Stephen Harper, former Prime
Minister of Canada, Guy Verhofstadt, former Prime Minister of
Belgium, John Bolton, former US National Security Adviser and
James L. Jones, former US National Security Adviser.
