- When the pandemic hit, passenger numbers on Britain’s
railways fell to the lowest level since 1872. Even as the network
has begun to recover, the rise of flexible working has
transformed travel patterns. New figures revealed by the CPS show
the numbers commuting Monday-Friday at peak time are at just 15%
of pre-pandemic levels
- The rail network must be radically overhauled to meet
passengers’ new demands for freedom and flexibility. That should
involve more flexible pricing, a radically simpler digital
ticketing offer, and the abolition of sky-high peak pricing
- We should also build on the success of open access on the
East Coast Mainline, which has seen lower prices and quicker
post-pandemic recovery, by expanding competition to other
long-distance routes as well as HS1 and HS2
- Failing to do so will force the Government to choose between
raising an extra penny on income tax to subsidise a network which
endures declining passenger numbers and standards, raising fares
or closing lines at a scale not seen since Beeching
- 60 years after Beeching, and 30 years since the end of
British Rail, the network faces another defining moment – and
needs to seize the opportunity it presents
Just over two years ago the United Kingdom went into its first
national lockdown. Overnight, rail lost its monopoly on
commuting. Journeys fell from 1.7 billion to 388 million and the
industry faced an unprecedented revenue crisis which has burdened
taxpayers with a £14 billion bill.
Despite the UK being one of the most open societies across
Europe, rail journeys have not bounced back. New figures revealed
by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) show that the number of
people commuting every day at peak time is just 15% of the
pre-pandemic total. Most commuting now takes place Tuesday to
Thursday; Mondays are 20% lower and Fridays are 50% lower than
before the pandemic. And overall, commuter journeys remain at
just 45% of pre-pandemic levels, with five-day peak hour
commuting – Monday to Friday – standing at just 15% of the
previous total.
In a new report, CPS Research Fellow Tony Lodge argues that
customers’ use of the rail network is becoming far more flexible,
with an increased focus on long-distance leisure commuting – and
warns that unless UK rail is radically overhauled, and able to
respond to new passenger demands for freedom and flexibility, it
will be plagued by a future of decline and underinvestment that
will necessitate either an extra penny raised on income tax to
cover a taxpayer subsidy to the annual tune of £6bn, or cuts to
railway lines on a scale not seen since the Beeching cuts in the
1960s.
‘Changing Track’ proposes a series of urgent measures to ensure
that the modern railway retail offer focuses on passengers’
priorities. At the heart of the proposals is a simpler, fairer
and more flexible cloud ticketing system which is able to respond
to new and evolving passenger demands, including the abolition of
sky-high peak prices.
These changes should be underpinned by the Government’s new
public body, Great British Railways, committing to boosting
competition and driving private investment across the network –
thereby boosting revenue growth and securing its future. The
paper points out that open access competition on the East Coast
Mainline, as advocated by the CPS, has resulted in lower fares,
greater passenger satisfaction and a stronger rebound in
passenger numbers – and calls for it to be rolled out on other
long-distance routes, including HS1 and HS2.
It also calls for a greater focus on private investment, and
ambitious targets to treble the volume of rail freight.
Not only are these reforms essential in shoring up the railway’s
future, they will also help drive forwards the Government’s
levelling up and Net Zero agendas.
The alternative is that lower passenger numbers and continued
losses to the taxpayer lead to a vicious circle of decline and
underinvestment.
Tony Lodge, report author and CPS Research Fellow,
said:
‘The pandemic fundamentally changed the nature of rail in the UK.
The Government has the opportunity – through the new Great
British Railways body – to radically overhaul the current model
to make sure that it is fit for purpose and able to meet modern
passenger demands.
‘Frankly, if the Government doesn’t implement these reforms,
there is no certainty that rail will have a future and taxpayers
will inevitably be forced to foot the bill for its decline.’
Notes to Editors
