On the four-year anniversary of MUP, new research from the Institute
of Economic Affairs, authored by Christopher Snowdon, John C.
Duffy and Mark Tovey, reveals the policy will cost Scottish
consumers £270m – over three times what was predicted.
This is equivalent to £71.12 per drinker or £59.39 per adult. The
policy was primarily justified on the basis of computer modelling
from a team at Sheffield University, the Sheffield Alcohol Policy
Model (SAPM). The models projected improvements in various health
and social outcomes. Public Health Scotland has not yet
published an estimate of MUP’s cost to consumers.
The stated aim of the policy was to reduce alcohol-related harms,
including death, crime and unemployment, by raising the price of
the cheap, off-trade alcohol, i.e. alcohol purchased from retail
outlets rather than hospitality, that is often associated with
harmful drinking.
Lacking the power to raise alcohol duty itself, the Scottish
government used MUP to drive up prices and lower consumption. It
assumed a reduction in alcohol-related harms would follow.
But there is little to no evidence that the introduction of a
minimum unit price in Scotland has had a positive impact on
employment, crime and health as Sheffield modelled. Most of the
indicators seem to have stayed the same or worsened since the
introduction of MUP.
The projected impacts of the policy were so small it would be
difficult to identify them in aggregate data. This raises the
question of whether the projected benefits were ever enough to
justify the projected cost – let alone the £270m the authors now
estimate.
Co-author of the report, IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics
Christopher Snowdon, said:
“Our estimate suggests that minimum pricing has cost Scottish
drinkers more than a quarter of a billion pounds. Now in its
fifth year, minimum pricing is a reminder that politicians are
often responsible for the rising cost of living.
“Although alcohol consumption has fallen slightly in
Scotland, we find no evidence that this has led to an improvement
in health outcomes. Consumers have simply switched from the most
affordable alcohol to mid-range brands, to the benefit of alcohol
producers and retailers. The policy could be dropped tomorrow
without costing the government a penny."
ENDS
‘The
Hangover: The cost of minimum alcohol pricing in
Scotland’ is under embargo until 00.01 Sunday 1
May. An embargoed copy of the paper can be found
here: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/DP106_The-cost-of-minimum-alcohol-pricing-in-Scotland_web.pdf
