There are around 20% more job vacancies than there were
pre-pandemic, and that seems to have been stable for 6 months or
so now. But new analysis from
researchers at the IFS shows that the overall amount of
change in the occupational mix of vacancies is no greater than
would be expected over a ‘normal’ two-year period.
Despite all the turbulence of the past two years the overall mix
of vacancies today is remarkably similar to 2019, and has changed
no more since then than between 2017 and 2019.
What’s more, in sectors where we have seen big increases in
vacancies there is no evidence as yet that that this has pushed
up wages
However, if we focus on the changes that have taken
place, we find a shift towards vacancies in
lower-skilled, lower-paid occupations:
- Vacancies for warehouse workers in the 5 months to February
2022 were more than double their pre-pandemic level, and
vacancies for drivers were 80% higher.
-
Higher vacancies in some occupations do not appear to
have pushed up wages. There is no correlation between
vacancy growth between the latter halves of 2019 and 2021 and
wage growth over the same period.
- The fact that vacancies have risen most in lower-skilled
occupations means that job market opportunities have
improved most for low-educated workers. Among unemployed
workers without a degree 70% have seen the number of job
opportunities for which they might have the appropriate prior
experience increase by more than 40%. Fewer than half of those
with a degree compared have seen an equivalent increase in
opportunities.
- This means that, while vacancies are high across the board,
many of the new opportunities facing jobseekers are in
relatively low-paying jobs.
These are among the findings of new IFS research, published today
and funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. The
research uses data on workers and jobseekers from the Labour
Force Survey, and online job vacancy data from Adzuna, up to and
including February 2022.
Xiaowei Xu, a Senior Research Economist at IFS and an
author of the report, said:
“The pandemic has not led to a huge change in the mix of jobs
demanded, but the shift towards lower-skilled occupations is
potentially concerning. There are signs that vacancies today are
still affected by transitory factors, for example pent-up demand
for job moves over the pandemic and the fall in EU migrants, so
it is possible that this will fade over time. That said, the
specific occupations that have seen large increases in vacancies
– drivers and warehouse workers – are consistent with a shift in
consumer preferences towards home delivery, which could indicate
a more permanent change in labour demand.”
ENDS
Notes to Editor
‘Job opportunities after the pandemic’ is an IFS briefing note by
Robert Joyce (IFS) Fabien Postel-Vinay Peter Spittal and Xiaowei
Xu (IFS)
You can read the embargoed
report here.
