The last 48 hours have seen a continued Russian military build-up
along Ukraine's borders, told the House of Commons.
"Mr Speaker, with permission, I would like to update the House on
the latest situation regarding Russia’s actions towards Ukraine.
As at 0900 hours today there are now more than 110 Battalion
Tactical Groups massed around Ukraine’s borders with Russia and
Belarus.
In addition, in the Black Sea Fleet there are two amphibious
groups, nine cruise missile-equipped Russian ships and a further
four cruise-missile capable vessels in the Caspian Sea.
In the last 48 hours, contrary to Kremlin assurances, we have
seen a continued increase in troop numbers and a change in force
disposition, moving from holding areas to potential launch
locations.
All the indicators point to increasing numbers and readiness of
Russian forces. And – not surprising to many of us – the pledge
to withdraw Russian troops from Belarus at the end of their joint
military drills on 20 February was not carried out and the
exercise has now been extended until further notice.
Complementing this troop build-up has been the proliferation of
false flags operations, propaganda stunts, and Russian news
outlets carrying fictitious allegations.
These are not the actions of a Russian government fulfilling its
repeated declarations that it has no intention of invading
Ukraine.
In fact, we have seen over the last few weeks the Russian
‘playbook’ being implemented in a way that gives us strong cause
for concern that President Putin is still committed to an
invasion.
I believe he is in danger of setting himself on a tragic course
of events, leading to humanitarian crisis, instability, and
widespread suffering – not just of Ukrainians but also of the
Russian people.
Russians, like many of us, know the consequences of military
interventions. The Soviet Union in Afghanistan, the first war in
Chechnya; these are just two of the examples that Russia faced
where too many young men returned home in zinc-lined coffins.
The Government therefore urges President Putin – for the sake of
his own people and even at this eleventh hour – to rule out the
invasion of Ukraine and recommit to a diplomatic process for us
to address the perceptions of the Kremlin.
Over recent weeks my RHF, the Foreign Secretary and I have
engaged in numerous engagements with our international
counterparts, including my own visit to Moscow to meet with
Defence Minister Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov.
We have made clear our determination to uphold the defensive
principles of NATO and to defend the right of sovereign countries
to make choices about their own security arrangements.
As the Russian Government itself has signed up to, states and I
quote, have “an equal right to security. We reaffirm the inherent
right of each and every participating state to be free to choose
or change its security arrangements, including treaties or
alliances”.
That statement, Mr Speaker was signed by the Russians in 1975 in
the Helsinki Final Act, in 1995 in the Budapest Summit
Declaration, in the 1999 Istanbul Summit, and most lately in 2010
at the Astana Summit.
We urge Russia to stick to its commitments that it has openly
made and signed up to over the years.
My counterpart, Minister Shoigu, repeated to me in-person that
Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine and while we take
them at their word, we must judge them by their actions.
At our meeting I also took the opportunity to address the
proposals in Russia’s draft treaty because while this is not a
return to normal UK relations, it is important that as one of
Europe’s biggest military powers, the UK maintains strong lines
of communications with Russia, in order to avoid miscalculation
or the risk of inadvertent escalations.
I also continue to speak regularly to my Ukrainian counterpart,
Minister Reznikov, as we continue to support the Armed Forces of
Ukraine.
Since 2015 the UK has responded – alongside the likes of Sweden
and Canada – to Russia’s previous illegal occupation of Crimea
with defence capacity building, including training and reform.
And, as I announced to the House last month, Mr Speaker, we took
the decision to also provide lethal aid to Ukraine.
This now means that alongside the United States, Canada, Estonia,
Latvia and Lithuania and the Netherlands, the United Kingdom has
not just spoken but acted.
I am pleased with the efforts being made by a range of European
leaders – including President Macron – to find a way through, as
we must remain resolute in our commitment to NATO’s formal
response to the Russian draft treaties, which all NATO members
signed up to.
Intimidation and aggression, however, must not be rewarded.
We should be under no illusion. The Russian forces have now
massed on Ukraine’s borders 65% of all their land combat power.
The formations present and the action of the Russian state to
date not only threatens the integrity of a sovereign state, but
undermine international law and the democratic values in which
all of us in Europe so strongly believe.
The Foreign Office has now relocated the embassy further west in
the country, and as two weeks ago advised all UK nationals should
leave Ukraine via all means possible.
The Ministry of Defence will continue to monitor Russian actions,
support Ukrainian defensive efforts, and contribute to NATO’s
response measures.
We continue to hope, Mr Speaker, President Putin will relent and
pull back from invasion, but we must prepare ourselves for the
consequences if he does not.
I will update the House as I have done so in the last few weeks,
both in the Chamber and to colleagues online."