Carbon Tracker
Speech by MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Energy and
Industrial Strategy
13th October 2021
Green Alliance – COP26: Time to Deliver
Can I start by expressing my thanks to Green Alliance for
hosting this event. You are a great organisation with
brilliant leadership from Shaun Spiers, informed and
informative, intelligent and committed.
I am here today to talk about COP26, the most consequential
summit that has ever taken place about the most consequential
issue facing our world, which will open in Glasgow in barely
a fortnight’s time.
This summit comes amidst an energy crisis here at home. We
must learn the lesson from this crisis that we need to plan
ahead, we cannot neglect our resilience as the government has
and the best route to energy security is to go further and
faster on the green transition at home.
COP26 matters because it will profoundly affect the world our
children and grandchildren grow up in. It matters because it
is a profound test of our solidarity, our ability to come
together and to recognise each other’s interests. It matters
because it is a chance for the world to come together and not
just prevent climate breakdown but build something better.
But, for such a profoundly important event, there is little
public clarity about what COP26 is seeking to achieve, how we
should judge its success and what we should do afterwards.
Today I want to help rectify that. My argument is this -
first, the task of COP is a matter of maths far more than
people realise and if we are to understand the stakes, we
need to understand the maths.
Second, behind the maths lies geopolitics and in particular
the relationship, and degree of trust, between the developing
and developed world. In this context, I want to try and learn
lessons for Glasgow from the Copenhagen summit, which I
attended as UK Climate Change Secretary, and the successful
Paris Summit of 2015.
Third, we are still miles away from where we need to be for
Glasgow partly because, despite the best efforts of , the rest of government has
not stepped up in the way it should.
Fourth, the cause is not hopeless, we have to do everything
we can in the remaining days but it requires all the focus,
attention, and strategic thinking the government can muster.
Fifth, given where we are, the road-map out of Glasgow
matters as much as what happens at the summit. The right way
now to think about Glasgow is as the start of a process not
the end of it; the summit must lay out a roadmap for further
progress during the rest of this decade.
Let me start with the maths. I’m a self-confessed nerd and
maybe being a climate nerd has something going for it.
“What is the COP about?” is a question I get asked a lot. It
is about whether we preserve species or destroy them, make
our planet inhabitable or uninhabitable, protect the most
vulnerable here and around the world from climate breakdown
or not. But which of these paths we take depends on the
maths.
The Paris Agreement set out a clear and agreed aim for the
world: “Holding the increase in the global average
temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and
pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.
But individual pledges made by countries in Paris added up
not to 1.5 or 2 degrees of global warming but something
around 2.7 degrees.
In that gap is written global catastrophe. That is why the
authors of the Paris Agreement rightly and wisely wrote in a
five year review mechanism to try to close the gap between
ambition and reality.
This is the purpose of Glasgow: To seek to close the gap
between the aggregated country by country targets and the
high level aims of Paris. We know what that must eventually
mean.
This is the crucial point: The world on the basis of Paris
commitments was on course for 53 gigatonnes of emissions in
2030. To have a fighting chance of keeping global warming to
two degrees, we need to be at 41 gigatonnes of emissions in
2030 and for 1.5 degrees, we need to be at 25 gigatonnes.
In other words, reductions of 12 gigatonnes from business as
usual for a 2 degree world and 28 gigatonnes for a 1.5 degree
world.
This is the undeniable and frightening maths of Glasgow.
To ‘keep 1.5 alive’ in the slogan of this summit, greenhouse
gas emissions, rising for more than two centuries and set to
rise again post Covid, must be cut in half in the next 9
years.
Being a climate nerd, I have had these numbers on my
whiteboard in my House of Commons office for more than two
years. I wish the same had been true for government
ministers.
The maths shows why this decade has rightly been called the
decisive one in the fight against climate change. That’s why
net zero targets for the middle of this century – on which
there has indeed been significant progress – are necessary
but simply not sufficient. It’s the legally-binding
Nationally Determined Contributions for this decade that will
tell Glasgow’s real story.
Now beneath the maths lie deeply complex geopolitical
currents. Where should these cuts in emissions come from?
Eighty percent of global greenhouse gas emissions come from
G20 countries.
China alone is responsible for 28% of the world’s greenhouse
gas emissions, the US 14%, the EU 9%, India 7%. Of course, if
we looked at these numbers historically the story would be
very different.
The UK may today be 1% of global emissions, but we are the
8th largest emitter over the period since the
industrial revolution.
I draw two conclusions from these numbers:
First, that every country needs to be in: developed,
emerging, and developing, if we are to succeed. And second,
that developed countries have a particular responsibility to
support those countries which are still developing not to
pursue our carbon-dependent model as they do so, and to take
instead the zero-carbon path.
This is where my reflection on Copenhagen and Paris comes in.
Copenhagen ended in acrimony for a whole range of reasons,
but partly it was the result of a breakdown in trust between
developing and vulnerable countries on one hand and developed
countries on the other. Paris was very different because the
hosts learned the central lesson of Copenhagen.
The French presidency, alongside a number of countries
including the UK, understood the need to build a ‘high
ambition coalition’ of vulnerable countries and developed
countries committed to the climate cause. That powerful axis
moved the world forward, pressuring all countries to support
an agreement, one which included the commitment to 1.5
degrees.
This is, once again, the coalition that can unlock success in
Glasgow. Because only with this coalition can the big
emitters and the low-ambition countries be put under real
pressure to do more. No-one wants to look like they are
derailing progress on climate action; but many are reluctant
to act. This coalition shuts down the avenues for them to get
away with it.
So where are we?
In some respects the last few years have been marked by real
progress. Since Paris, he economics has moved on, with the
price of renewables across the globe crashing below the
fossil fuels they must replace, and pulling global markets in
the direction of clean technologies. The politics has moved
on with global pressure to tackle this issue in a way there
just wasn’t more than a decade ago and the science has moved
on, most notably in the IPCC’s landmark 2018 report about the
importance of 1.5C.
Unfortunately though, and I say this with deep regret, we are
still a long way off where we need to be – both in the maths
and the coalition building.
We have to tell the truth about where we are.
The best estimates are that while we need reductions of 12
gigatonnes by 2030 for a 2 degree world, and 28 gigatonnes
for a 1.5 degree world, we currently stand at about 4
gigatonnes of emissions reductions on the basis of the
pledges made ahead of Glasgow.
This is not to diminish important steps forward by the United
States, the EU, the UK and others in their targets, or the
work being done in the private sector and civil society. But
it is striking that the respected Climate Action Tracker
concludes no country, apart from The Gambia, is 1.5 degree
compliant in both targets and delivery.
Not one of the G20 countries is doing enough.
As serious in my view, the high ambition coalition has not
been built. Developing countries are facing an appalling
triple crisis of Covid, debt and climate breakdown. Yet the
$100 billion of climate finance by 2020 for developing
countries promised at Copenhagen more than a decade ago and
again in Paris, has still not been delivered.
The issue of loss and damage from climate catastrophe which
will hit developing countries hardest, has still not been
addressed and most appallingly of all in many ways, vaccine
nationalism is leaving just 2% of the population of
developing countries vaccinated.
This is an appalling act of moral shame and also an act of
self-harm on behalf of the developed world.
The risk of deadly variants coming from the virus spreading
through the developing world is something we should rightly
fear. And yet we are making it all the more likely in our
actions.
The COP requires unanimity. We are asking the world’s poorest
countries to focus on the climate crisis and reach a global
agreement when we are leaving them on their own to face the
ravages of Covid.
It would not be fair to attribute all the failings we see to
the UK Government. They cannot be held responsible for all
the failings of the developed world, nor for the US-China
relationship, which is far worse than it was at the time of
Paris. The President of the Cop deserves credit for his
seriousness, his integrity and commitment.
But the problem is that, having volunteered for the sacred
responsibility of the presidency of this critical COP, the
rest of the government have been at best bystanders and at
worst, contributors to this global inaction.
Above all, they have undermined our moral standing with a
series of actions which cut right against climate integrity.
When trust between developing and developed countries is the
key to success, and we need to persuade others to step up on
climate finance, the UK took the disastrous decision to cut
the aid budget, the only G7 country to do so. When we are
telling every major emitter they must act, the UK has done a
trade deal with Australia allowing them to delete Paris
temperature commitments from the text. When we have rightly
made powering past coal a focus of our Presidency, at the
very same time the government has flirted with a new coal
mine in Cumbria. When we know moving past fossil fuels is an
essential part of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees, the
UK governmet, aided and abetted by the Scottish government
has chosen this moment to back the Cambo oil field. And when
the UNEP emissions gap report tells us that a global green
recovery could close a quarter of the emissions gap on its
own, this government brought forward just a fraction of the
new green spending required for the next decade.
These things matter not simply because of what the Government
has done wrong but because they indicate how they need to act
in the remaining short weeks. At this late stage, I
want to constructively suggest where the government should be
focusing its efforts.
The starting point is that we should be crystal clear about
the goal. The equivocation between 1.5C and 2C from Paris is
now out of date: global warming must be limited to 1.5C. The
G20 should set the standard here with an explicit commitment
to 1.5C, and that should be endorsed by all parties at
Glasgow too.
Then to keep 1.5 alive, here is what we need to do and what
we would be doing in government.
First, there is no route to success without reassembling the
high ambition coalition. So we need to deliver and exceed the
$100 billion of finance promised at Copenhagen, with a 50:50
split between mitigation and adaptation.
We need to recognise the need for additional funding in the
future for loss and damage since it is developing countries
who will be hit hardest by climate breakdown and crucially we
need to deliver on the promise himself made at the G7
summit to vaccinate the world by the end of 2022.
We must drive these things forward before we get to Glasgow,
including at the G20.
If the Government was really serious about changing the
atmosphere, as we so obviously need to do, to restore some of
our standing, they could and should reinstate our overseas
aid commitment to 0.7% of GDP.
Second, we need to demand every big emitter delivers on 1.5
degree compliant targets. We should not at one and the same
time be celebrating a trade deal with Australia – which still
has no commitment to net zero, and has not updated its 2030
target from Paris – while they are so catastrophically
failing to deliver.
It’s time to say to every country loud and clear that we will
not turn a blind eye to failure.
The news from China today around its domestic coal use is
deeply concerning. Their announcement at the UN General
Assembly that they would stop financing overseas coal
investment was welcome, but we need to see this matched by
action at home. And we also need an ambitious target from
China in this decade, peaking emissions by 2025 and
declining.
Being part of the club of nations means acting on climate. On
fossil fuels, the government is right to say that we need to
transition away from coal. But it is also past time to
broaden that debate to include oil and gas as well. Central
to that conversation must be provisions for a fair transition
for workers and communities. Third, we need to mobilise every
major business and financial centre behind Paris compliance.
London is one of the world’s financial centres. The UK may be
1% of global emissions but according to Carbon Tracker, the
investments of companies and financial institutions based in
the City of London account for approximately 15% of global
emissions.
Many of our leading financial institutions and businesses
have been ahead of government, pushing the debate forward in
very welcome ways. I praise them for their actions and their
forward-thinking approach. But we need all to meet the
standards of the best.
The biggest single decision we can make as a country is to
mobilise our world-leading global financial centre behind
climate action equal to the scale of the emergency. So
government should ask all financial institutions not just to
report on climate risks, as they plan to, but to bring
forward by 2023 credible transition plans that are consistent
with a 1.5 degree pathway. This would make a profound
difference in the flow of finance out of fossil fuels and
into green energy.
We should ask all our FTSE100 companies to do the same and
have their own climate transition plans, consistent with 1.5
degrees, by 2023. And furthermore, we should be asking in
Glasgow that all major economies follow suit.
We need to match billions of investment from government in
climate action with trillions in private sector finance. This
proposal would be a game-changer in the fight against climate
breakdown. It would set the global standard and make the UK
the green finance capital of the world. And it would offer
huge opportunities for our companies and investors and ensure
that we manage the transition properly and act in this
decisive decade.
Fourth, nature is essential to both quality of life, our
responsibility to future generations and cutting emissions.
As we take action to prevent climate breakdown, we can and
must build a better world. Protecting nature and biodiversity
is absolutely essential to this. If we really want to engage
individuals and communities in the fight against the climate
crisis, the nature agenda must be absolutely central. That is
why we should be protecting nature by
ending deforestation and ensuring that all climate mitigation
and adaptation is nature positive. And we would have a net
zero and nature test for every policy.
Finally, the power of example really matters. What we do at
home is crucial to these negotiations.
I remember a conversation with my Chinese counterpart Xie
Zhenhua at Copenhagen where he remarked on the UK’s domestic
record, in particular the recently passed Climate Change Act,
as giving us standing in the negotiations. Why is the UK not
rated as Paris compliant by Climate Action Tracker? Because
we are simply not delivering on our targets
We are sending a signal that setting targets is the important
part, delivery is secondary – and other countries are
following suit.
The next fortnight presents the ideal opportunity to change
this.
We are going to see lots of strategies and plans from
government but the key test for what they propose is whether
they are willing to back their plans with the scale of
investment required to make this green transition fair,
prosperous and successful for the UK.
Transforming our homes can’t be done without significant
government support. Supporting our industries to transition
can’t be done without public investment alongside private
investment. Winning the race for the new industries of the
future can’t be done without leadership and investment from
government.
Labour’s Shadow Chancellor , a green Chancellor in
waiting, has set out what needs to be done with great
imagination and boldness.
A long term climate commitment to invest - alongside the
private sector - £28bn extra each and every year between now
and the end of the decade.
If you want to understand why there is a chasm between
government intentions and delivery, it is the failure to
invest. And not investing is the reckless, irresponsible
choice as the Office of Budget Responsibility has made clear.
Delivering our climate targets a decade late doubles the
cost. The right choice is to invest for jobs and our
industries. The right choice is to invest for fairness The
right choice is to invest to set an example to the world.
In sum, then, Labour is calling on the Government to do five
things in order to keep 1.5C alive: support the most
vulnerable; pressure the big emitters; mobilise major
businesses and financial institutions behind climate action;
protect nature, and lead by example at home.
Above all, finally, at the eleventh hour, the Prime Minister
must treat this summit with the seriousness which it
deserves.”
We cannot let COP26 be the greenwash summit. It’s time for
the Prime Minister to get off his sun lounger, be a
statesman, put away the easel and make Glasgow the success we
need it to be. This summit must succeed. It still can. But we
need a step-change in action from our government and
governments across the world.
Finally, let me turn to the road-map out of Glasgow.
Particularly in the light of where we are, we need to address
what happens afterwards. The fallout from the Copenhagen COP
blighted the last decade. We cannot allow it to happen this
decade.
Currently the world is not due to return to negotiations
around the NDCs until 2025, and only then to set targets for
2035 or 2040. That won’t do. It would be business as usual in
the face of impending catastrophe.
The vulnerable countries forum has said that we must have
ambition-raising every year in this decade. They are right.
Every year matters.
Glasgow must not be the end of the story of this decade but
the beginning. That is an essential part of what the UK needs
to deliver as hosts. That we return to these issues year on
year on year with pressure applied to countries not stepping
up.
Let me say this in conclusion, some people will wonder what
the point of these summits is. In truth, they are a forcing
mechanism to put world leaders on the spot. That is our
collective task. The task of civil society. To be truth
tellers about the maths, about what is and isn’t being
achieved. To support progress, and to call out where
governments fall short.
Whatever outcome we get at Glasgow, we need to up the pace of
change and it is civil society that will make the difference
– holding governments around the world to the pledges they
make and pushing them to make better ones.
We are about to begin the most important few weeks of this
nation’s history in the fight against the climate crisis. We
are not where we need to be. But we should not give up hope.
Every gigatonne we stop going into the atmosphere will amount
to lives saved, species preserved, and a better world for our
children and theirs.
What is more, if we truly rise to the climate challenge, we
know there is a vision of a better world at the end of it.
Good jobs at decent wages, cleaner air, lifting people out of
poverty here and around the world.
There is a nightmare we must avoid and a dream we must build.
This is a cause that we all must fight for in the coming
weeks.