New report dismisses Elon Musk’s population collapse fears

New research led by respected economist Lord Turner finds countries with falling populations are richer as well as mitigating climate change.  

The report commissioned by charity Population Matters flies in the face of recent claims by Tesla CEO Elon Musk that ‘population collapse’ is possibly the greatest risk to the future of society.  

It found the UK could cut CO2 emissions by some 38 million tonnes, equivalent to taking 19m cars off UK roads, by 2035 if its population was to reduce at the same rate as Japan’s over the next 15 years.  

The report, Smaller Families and Ageing Populations, drafted by environmental consultancy Higginson Strategy concludes that embracing and promoting lower birth rates would improve planetary health, people’s wellbeing and long-term economic sustainability.  

Japanese women will give birth to an average 1.36 children in their lifetime - down from 2.1 in 1974, while women in England and Wales will give birth to an average of 1.6 children. 

By 2035, the Japanese population will decrease by 9.6 percent from 125 million to 113.1 million, while the UK population is predicted to increase by 5.2 percent to 71.1 million over the same period.  

The report said if the UK achieved the same downward trajectory as Japan, it would help alleviate the housing crisis with four million fewer homes needed, and provide 435,000 acres of nature to address Britain’s rapidly declining natural environment.  

The report says ‘population decline is not something to be feared, but embraced for the multiple benefits it brings’.  

While smaller populations can bring with it challenges, the report highlights policy changes to encourage a wellbeing economy as crucial in reaping the benefits of smaller, sustainable human populations.  

A transition to economic principles which are based on securing human wellbeing and environmental sustainability will provide the best framework in which to meet these challenges.  

The report’s foreword is written by Lord Adair Turner, former chair of the Financial Services Authority and Climate Change Committee. 

The global population is expected to grow from 7.8 billion today to almost 10 million by the middle of this century. 

The report's findings will be discussed at Population Mattters’ annual conference in London today.  

In his foreword to the report, Lord Turner, former Chairman of the UK’s Financial Services Authority, said:  

“The biggest reason to welcome this demographic shift is that it results from the free choice of empowered people, and in particular women.    

 But ceasing endless population growth will also reduce humanity’s future pressure on the natural environment, ease the challenge of adequate housing provision, and make it easier to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions while supporting prosperity growth in developing countries.   

 Human welfare is best served in societies where women are empowered, smaller families are the norm, and populations are stable or gently declining.”  

Robin Maynard, Director, Population Matters, said:  

“Those panicking about ageing societies and lower birth rates should look at the evidence and the available, positive solutions which offer greater wellbeing for a greater proportion of people globally. Formerly poor countries like Costa Rica, now enjoy some of the highest wellbeing in the world, having prioritised family planning and women’s empowerment as their springboard to sustainable development.  

Elon Musk’s apocalyptic pronouncements on this issue are ill-informed, harmful and his motives questionable. Women’s bodies are not an economic tool to provide a growing supply of cheap labour and new consumers to the very wealthy.    

An economy which ignores the environmental limits of our planet can’t deliver long-term wellbeing. Contrary to the alarmist headlines, lower birth rates are key to greater opportunity and progress. The fact of more people living longer, healthier lives is a triumph, not a tragedy.” 

Speakers include: The Times columnist and The Economist’s UK editor, Emma Duncan; Lord Adair Turner, former chair of the Financial Services Authority; Prof Sarah Harper of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, Dr Eliya Zulu, chief executive of the African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP), and Chaitanya Kumar, Head of Environment and Green Transition at the New Economic Foundation.  

ENDS    

NOTES TO EDITORS:   

• A copy of the fully referenced report is available here. 

Other findings include: 

• In 2017, the jobs of approximately 1.5 million people in the UK were assessed as being at “high risk” of being replaced by robots or other automated systems. 
• The number of over-65s in work in the UK increased by 188 percent between 1999 and 2019. 
• In the UK, the economic contribution of people over 65 was estimated in 2016/17 to be £160 billion. Allowing for inflation and other changes, it is likely that in 2021 the total contribution of those over 65s exceeds the UK government’s pension bill of £169bn. 
• Economic dependency has declined in the UK since 1992, despite an ageing population.  
• Changes in population age structure alone are expected to add no more than one additional percentage point to the average annual per person health care expenditure growth rates in OECD countries over the next 40 years. 

Conclusions and recommendations: 

• A transition to economic principles based on securing human wellbeing and environmental sustainability provide the best framework in which to meet the challenge and opportunities of ageing populations.  
   
• Fears of long-term labour shortages are exaggerated due to overall continued population growth and automation. Any shortages which do arise can be addressed through measures such as increasing labour force participation, judicious immigration policies, further automation and increasing retirement age.  
   
• Fiscal challenges presented by ageing populations can be solved by pension reform, increasing the productivity of older workers, later retirement, investment in preventative health to reduce health care costs, and, where appropriate, equitable increases in tax.  

• The linked Population Matters conference on Friday, 8 October, ‘Boom or Bust? Economy, wellbeing and population’ will be held simultaneously live at ETC St Paul's, Aldersgate, London, and as a participatory livestreamed online event. The event will run from 11am to 6pm UK time.  

• Population Matters promotes positive, practical, ethical solutions – encouraging smaller families, inspiring people to consume sustainably, and helping us all to live within our planet’s natural limits. It believes everyone should have the freedom and ability to choose a smaller family. It supports human rights, women’s empowerment and global justice.