It could take until 2033 to clear cancer treatment backlog in England, finds IPPR and CF
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Pandemic toll on cancer services revealed in new analysis, with an
estimated 19,500 missing cancer diagnoses due to missed referrals
Ambitious cancer services recovery plan needed to clear backlog and
improve services and survival rates beyond 2019 level, urges think
tank New research from IPPR and CF – the health consultancy and
data analytics company – has found that even if stretched hospitals
can maintain activity levels 5 per cent above pre-pandemic
levels,...Request free trial
New research from IPPR and CF – the health consultancy and data analytics company – has found that even if stretched hospitals can maintain activity levels 5 per cent above pre-pandemic levels, it will still take until 2033 to clear the cancer treatment ‘missing patients backlog’ caused by the pandemic. However, if activity levels can be increased further and maintained at 15 per cent above pre-pandemic levels, backlogs across the cancer care pathway could be cleared by next year. While the number of people who need cancer treatment has not changed, the research shows that during the pandemic:
IPPR and CF analysis shows the backlog has been starkest in diagnostics, where the pandemic has led to 37 per cent fewer endoscopies, 25 per cent fewer MRI scans and 10 per cent fewer CT scans being performed than expected. IPPR warns that due to the ‘missing patient backlog’ there will be thousands of people for whom it will now be too late to cure their cancer. The think tank recently estimated that the number of cancers diagnosed while they are still highly curable (stage one and two) fell from 44 per cent before to pandemic to 41 per cent last year. Assuming that nine in 10 of these ‘missing’ patients eventually presents to cancer services for treatment (including palliative treatment), the analysis suggests the backlog in chemotherapy and radiotherapy could take until 2028 and 2033 respectively. However, if cancer care activity levels can be increased, then the backlog can be cleared much more quickly, and many cancer-related deaths can be prevented. Increasing activity levels to 115 per cent of pre-pandemic levels would clear the backlog across most of the cancer care pathway by next year. The researchers argue that this uplift in cancer care activity could only be achieved with new policy to increase the cancer workforce and investment in diagnostic equipment beyond the new funding announced this month. Recovery alone is not enough IPPR makes the case that returning to pre-pandemic standards of cancer care should not be the limit of ministers’ ambition. Pre-pandemic the UK had poor cancer outcomes compared to similar countries, the lowest numbers of CT and MRI scanners per head in the OECD and workforce shortages across all cancer-related services. Cuts to public health services across the country have also played a role in the UK’s poor population health and cancer survival rates, according to IPPR. To ‘build back better’ in cancer care, the think tank calls on the government to enact a three-part cancer pledge to:
Dr Parth Patel, IPPR research fellow and an NHS Doctor, said: “The pandemic has severely disrupted cancer services in England, undoing years of progress in improving cancer survival rates. Now the health service faces an enormous backlog of care that threatens to disrupt services for well over a decade. We know every delay poses risks to patients' chances of survival. “Clearing the cancer care backlog before the next general election looks unlikely with the way the NHS is currently resourced, staffed and organised. The funding announced this month is just about enough to keep the health service afloat, but does not provide the funds needed to bring down pandemic backlogs as quickly as possible or transform service quality. The government has pledged to improve cancer survival in this country, which lags far behind most similar countries. That will take investment in diagnostic kit, immediate and long-term plans to expand the workforce and much bolder policy on prevention.” Chris Thomas, IPPR senior research fellow, said: “The impact of the pandemic on cancer services cannot be disassociated from the political and policy decisions that came before it. Years of austerity ripped the resilience out of cancer care, limiting our diagnostic capacity and reducing our ability to prevent people getting cancer in the first place. The government must not repeat the same mistakes and try to run an already burnt out NHS even hotter – with nothing like the right capacity, tools and resource. “Returning cancer care to its pre-pandemic state is not sufficiently ambitious and will not deliver the rapidly improvement in cancer outcomes we need. The government must live up to their ‘build back better’ rhetoric and not just return us to the stagnating cancer survival rates seen pre-pandemic.” ENDS NOTES TO EDITORS
Source: CF 2021
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