Step 4 of the Roadmap will proceed as planned on Monday 19 July,
the Prime Minister has confirmed.
Moving to step 4 is a balance of risks and the public should
continue to be cautious. The majority of covid restrictions will
end on 19 July and guidance will emphasise personal
responsibility.
The latest data and modelling show that the government’s “four
tests” for easing covid restrictions have been met.
The four tests are:
- The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
- Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in
reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
- Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which
would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
- Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by
new Variants of Concern.
Cases will continue to rise as set out from the start of the
Roadmap, but the vaccination programme has substantially weakened
the link between infection and serious illness or death.
Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise over the coming
weeks and months, but both are far lower than the previous wave.
The current data does not suggest that unsustainable pressure
will be put on the NHS but all data will be kept under constant
review.
As of 12 July there are 28,421 new positive cases in England. 461
people were admitted to hospital with covid and there are 2,352
patients in hospital. The latest ONS estimates show that 1 in 160
people have covid in England.
The move to step 4 was delayed by 4 weeks so more adults could be
vaccinated. Nearly 7 million vaccines have already been
administered during the delay.
By 19 July two thirds of adults will have received two doses and
every adult will have been offered a first dose.
The delay to step 4 has also moved the end of restrictions closer
to the school summer holidays.
All adults should take up the offer of two vaccine doses, to
protect themselves and others against covid. Analysis from Public
Health England (PHE) and the University of Cambridge suggests
that vaccines have so far prevented an estimated 8.5 million
infections and 30,000 deaths in England alone.
Data from PHE suggests that one dose of either the
Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 80% effective
against hospitalisations with the Delta variant, increasing to
96% after two doses.
The Prime Minister has today emphasised caution and the
expectation for a gradual easing of restrictions, based on
informed choice and personal responsibility. Last week he set out
a five-point plan to manage the risks while learning to live with
covid.
The vaccination programme will continue and all adults will be
offered two doses by mid-September. Dependent on final JCVI
advice the booster programme will begin from September, offering
additional protection to the most vulnerable.
The majority of legal restrictions will be removed and people
will be expected to protect themselves and others through
informed choice. The Government expects and recommends that face
coverings are worn in crowded and enclosed spaces, such as public
transport, when mixing with people you don’t normally meet.
While the government is no longer instructing people to work from
home, a return to the workplace should be gradual and businesses
should follow the published guidance.
Organisations and large events will be supported and encouraged
to use the NHS COVID Pass in high-risk settings to help limit the
risk of infection in their venues.
Positive cases and contacts of positive cases identified by NHS
Test and Trace will still be legally required to self-isolate, to
help break chains of transmission. There will be an isolation
exemption for contacts of positive cases for under 18s and for
double vaccinated adults from 16 August. School bubbles will end
from 19 July.
Quarantine rules will remain for all those travelling from a red
list country, and for amber list countries unless double
vaccinated.
All data will be kept under review, and contingency measures will
be retained to manage periods of higher risk, such as winter.
Guidance will be strengthened if needed, but restrictions will be
avoided if possible due to their significant economic,
social and health costs.
The Government will review the current guidance in September.
