The chief executive of NHS Providers, , has posted a
Twitter thread saying
that vaccines are breaking the chain between infections and high
levels of hospital admissions and deaths but June 21st
June decision still carries major risk.
He wrote:
“Trust leaders are increasingly confident that vaccines are
breaking the chain between COVID-19 infections and the high
levels of hospital admissions and death rates we’ve seen in
previous covid-19 waves.
“In places where community infections rates are increasing,
hospital COVID-19 admission rates are rising too, but not at an
alarming rate. Admissions rates are a lot lower than in previous
waves. The admitted patients are generally younger and less
likely to need critical care or be at risk of dying. Very few of
these patients have had two vaccination doses. In “front of wave”
hotspot areas like Bolton, admissions are now declining and trust
leaders feel they have coped well with this latest surge.
“But there are still risks here – the Delta variant appears to
have significantly higher transmissibility. There are still many
people, including some from the clinically vulnerable groups, who
have yet to have a double vaccination dose and the required time
to build up full protection. And trust leaders report their
trusts as very busy.
“In heading towards a decision for 21 June, trust leaders want a
more sophisticated debate than the current black and white “full
steam ahead” or “delay everything”. They want the Government to
consider five critical questions:
- Do we need more evidence on hospitalisation and mortality
rates – both in “front of wave” areas and to check “middle of
wave” areas will behave in same way? If so, what evidence and how
much more of it do we need? And how long will that take?
- If greater vaccine protection requires a double dose and
two-to-three weeks to build up immunity, how much, and which
sections, of the population do we want to have passed this
milestone before we ease restrictions?
- Given the underlying dynamics of this virus, relaxing
restrictions will lead to higher levels of mortality, albeit
lower than in previous waves. What level of risk are we prepared
to accept here, recognising this is a deeply uncomfortable debate
and one that we are totally unused, as a society, to having?
- Given current pressures on the NHS, increased COVID-19
hospital admissions will likely lead to delays in treatment for
other patients, for example slowing down work to recover the care
backlog. Are we ready to accept this trade off and how do we
measure whether it is the right one?
- How do we balance the risks and benefits here, and if we need
to strike a balance between two extremes of “full steam ahead” or
“delay everything”, which lockdown easing measures carry more
risk and which less?
There are difficult decisions to make in the days ahead with
important trade offs. It’s essential we have a full and
transparent debate that explores these issues properly”.
