New EPI research on pandemic learning loss at a national and regional level published by the DfE

Today the Department for Education (DfE) has published new research examining the extent of learning loss among primary and secondary school pupils in England during the spring and autumn terms, at both a national and regional level.

The research, which provides new evidence on the impact of the pandemic on pupils’ school attainment, was carried out by Education Policy Institute (EPI) and Renaissance Learning for the Department.

The data analysis from EPI comprises of two DfE reports, one covering pupil learning loss during the autumn term (2020), and another covering pupil learning loss during the recent spring term (2021):

• “Understanding Progress in the 2020/21 Academic Year: Complete findings from the autumn term”
• “Understanding Progress in the 2020/21 Academic Year: Initial findings from the spring term”

The research uses Renaissance Learning’s ‘Star Assessments’ linked to the government's National Pupil Database

“Learning loss” refers to the months of learning pupils are behind expectations following the pandemic, compared to a typical, pre-pandemic school year.

The new findings have been published today by the government, here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pupils-progress-in-the-2020-to-2021-academic-year-interim-report


Key findings from the EPI research for the DfE:

Pupil learning loss at a national level

(Understanding Progress in the 2020/21 Academic Year: Initial findings from the spring term” Figure 8)

Average learning losses for primary school pupils stood at nearly 2 months in reading and over 3 months in maths in the first half of the autumn term, before recovering in the second half of the autumn term, and then regressing again in the spring term:

• At a national level, by the first half of the autumn term (October 2020), average learning losses were 3.7 months in maths for pupils in primary school and 1.8 months in reading for pupils in primary school.
• Then, by the second half of the autumn term (December 2020), average learning losses had temporarily recovered to 2.7 months in maths for pupils in primary school and 1.2 months in reading for pupils in primary school.
• However, by the second half of the spring term (March 2021), following the national lockdown and restrictions to in-person teaching, pupil learning losses had then regressed to a similar level at the start of the autumn term, standing at an average loss of 3.5 months in maths for pupils in primary school and 2.2 months in reading for pupils in primary school.

Pupil learning loss for disadvantaged pupils (those on free school meals)

(Understanding Progress in the 2020/21 Academic Year: Complete findings from the Autumn term” Table 1 & Table 2)

Pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds have been amongst the biggest losers as a result of the pandemic:

• At a national level, by the first half of the autumn term, average learning losses for disadvantaged pupils were 4.3 months in maths for pupils in primary school and 2 months in reading for pupils in primary school.
• Then, by the second half of the autumn term average learning losses for disadvantaged pupils recovered to 3.3 months in maths for pupils in primary school and 1.6 in reading for pupils in primary school.
• EPI findings on losses for disadvantaged pupils in the spring term following restrictions to in-person teaching will be published by the DfE later this year.
• This analysis provides further evidence that restrictions to in-person teaching following the pandemic have led to a widening of the “disadvantage gap” – the gap in school attainment between disadvantaged pupils and their peers.
• The relative learning loss for disadvantaged pupils was the equivalent of losing between a third and two-thirds of the progress made over the past decade in closing the disadvantage gap in primary schools. Given further restrictions to in-person teaching during 2020/21, it is likely that the gap could grow further.

Pupil learning loss at a regional level

(Understanding Progress in the 2020/21 Academic Year: Complete findings from the Autumn term” Table 1 & Table 2)

There is evidence of disparities in learning losses at a regional level (though results should be treated with some caution due to sample sizes). In particular we find that by the first half of the autumn term, average learning losses in reading for pupils in primary school were:

• 1.5 months in the South West and 1.3 months in London; but
• 2.3 months in the North East and 2.6 months in Yorkshire and the Humber.

By the second half of the autumn term, average losses in reading for pupils in primary school were:

• 0.8 months in the South West and 1.7 months in London; but
• 2.0 months in the North East and 1.7 months in Yorkshire and the Humber.

> The full table of regional learning losses in reading can be found here.

Whilst sample sizes are smaller for assessments in maths, we still find evidence of wide regional disparities in learning loss by region. Learning losses in the second half of the autumn term were again significantly below average in the South West and in London, and significantly above average in the North East and in Yorkshire and the Humber.

> The full table of regional learning losses in maths can be found here.

EPI findings on regional losses by the spring term following restrictions to in-person teaching will be published by the DfE later this year.

Commenting on the new research, Jon Andrews, report co-author and Head of Analysis at the Education Policy Institute (EPI) said:

“This research shows that at a national level, primary school pupils in England were facing average learning losses from the pandemic of around two-three months by the start of the autumn term. Pupils were able to recover learning towards the end of this term – but then, as pupils missed out on in-person learning in early 2021, losses returned to around their early autumn level.

“Our data analysis points to a clear penalty faced by disadvantaged pupils during the pandemic – these pupils have seen greater learning losses than their more affluent peers, which risks widening the overall gap in educational attainment.

“There are also significant regional disparities, with regions such as Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and the East Midlands seeing higher levels of learning loss than pupils in London and the South West.

"We need to continue to look at how we can support all pupils through effective catch-up programmes, but especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, whose education has seen the most damage from the pandemic. It’s also important that policies address the large losses seen in certain parts of the country.”