After the egotism, America-Firstism and unpredictability of
Donald Trump, Joe Biden would bring back the multilateral,
institutionally-engaged and constructive United States of old. He
would follow in the footsteps of Democrat predecessors such as
Jimmy Carter, who initiated the Camp David accords, which brought
peace between Israel and Egypt; and Bill Clinton, who brokered
the Oslo accords, which didn’t quite do the same for Israel and
the Palestinians.
If you thought so, then think again. Obviously, some of the
President’s policies break with his predecessors: on Iran (he
wants to return to the nuclear deal), on climate change (America
has rejoined the Paris accords) and, up to a point, on
Israel-Palestine (he has restored aid to the Palestinians that
Trump cut off).
But there is no sign whatsoever that the Biden administration is
rolling up its sleeves for a major Middle East peace push. And a
lot of evidence to the contrary.
For better or worse, and for whatever reason, the President has
been unwilling to seek an early UN Security Council resolution in
response to the latest outbreak of hostilities between Israel and
Hamas – the scale and range of which clearly caught the
administration by surprise. Previous flare-ups have not
previously been followed by violence between Jews and Arabs in
Israel itself.
We can think of at least four reasons why Biden is reluctant to
be drawn in. First, the Clinton initiatives ultimately failed: a
summit in 2000 collapsed, when Ehud Barak was Israel’s Prime
Minister. There is no shortage of veterans from the Clinton
administration in Biden’s, including Antony Blinken, the
Secretary of State, and their collective take seems to be: once
bitten, twice shy.
Especially since, second, Israel’s leadership has changed over
the last 30 years – and not at all to Team Biden’s liking.
Benjamin Netanyahu took Trump’s line on the Iran deal, or rather
vice-versa, and Biden’s wish to restore it will do nothing to
smooth relations. After Trump was elected, he rang Netanyahu
within two days. His
successor waited for three
weeks.
Third, once Biden took a major initiative in the Middle East, he
would own it – with all the political risks that might entail
with both pro-Israel and pro-Palestinianian Democrats in Congress
(and voters). Furthermore, who would the President engage with on
the Palestinian side? With Mahmoud Abbas, who is clearly
terrified of losing power in the West Bank, hence his
postponement of elections? With Hamas?
Finally, America is moving on – and has been doing so for some
time. Remember how Barack Obama wanted Europe’s main military
powers, Britain and France, to take responsibility for military
action in Libya. The retreat from the Middle East didn’t begin
with Trump – who, remember, did see through the Abraham Accords,
which brokered peace between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
Indeed, Israel’s battle with Hamas should be seen through the
lens of the struggle in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and
Iran. The latter arms Hamas (and Hizbollah); the former
co-operates militarily with Israel. Insofar as Biden is working
to end a war in the Middle East, he appears to be focused on the
conflict between the Saudis and Yemen.
But with America no longer dependent on middle eastern oil, the
President has more pressing foreign affairs priorities – not
least, dealing with China.
Quite right too, many will say – adding that, whether one’s
sympathies are with Israel, the Palestinians, both or neither,
the odds of a fully engaged Biden administration making a
difference are vanishingly long. Be careful what you wish for,
however. When the United States is active abroad, others
complain. But beware of the consequences when it isn’t. (The EU
lacks the authority and capacity to substitute).
Like the bloody struggle between India and Pakistan over Kashmir,
Israel-Palestine has the capacity to spill over onto our streets.
Nine officers were injured over the weekend, as the police were
targeted during a pro-Palestine protest. And men brandishing
Palestinian flags drove through North London, with one proclaiming through a
loudspeaker: “f**k the Jews…rape their daughters”. What
happens in Jerusalem and Gaza has consequences in Kensington and
Finchley – and elsewhere on our streets.
