New Imperial study shows Mayor’s air quality policies will help increase life expectancy of children in London

• A new Imperial study shows that the Mayor’s air quality policies will help increase the average life expectancy of a child born in London by six months
• Report reveals that bold measures to tackle air pollution are still needed as 4,000 Londoners died due to the impacts of toxic air in 2019
• Highest number of deaths attributed to toxic air were recorded in outer London boroughs

A new study by researchers from Imperial College London’s Environmental Research Group, commissioned by City Hall, has found that the Mayor’s air quality policies and wider improvements in air pollution will increase the average life expectancy of a child born in London in 2013 by six months.

Between 2016 and 2019 there were significant improvements in London’s air quality. This resulted in a 97 per cent reduction in the number of state primary and secondary schools located in areas exceeding legal pollution limits – from 455 in 2016, to just 14 in 2019 and a 94 per cent reduction in number of Londoners living in areas exceeding legal limits for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂).

Despite these significant improvements, levels of air pollution in London are still too high for many Londoners. The new study, delivered through Imperial Projects, found that in 2019 toxic air contributed to the deaths of more than 4,000 Londoners. This includes deaths from all causes including respiratory, lung cancer and cardiovascular diseases.

This means that there is still vital work to do to improve London’s air quality. In a landmark ruling in December 2020, nine-year-old Ella Adoo-Kissi-Debrah became the first person in the UK to have air pollution listed as a cause of death. Ella, who lived near the South Circular Road in Lewisham, south-east London, died in 2013.

The success of the existing central London Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) and other action taken by the Mayor gives confidence that expansion of the ULEZ later this year and tighter standards for heavy vehicles across the entire city will help deliver wider benefits for London. This includes saving the NHS around £5 billion and preventing more than one million hospital admissions over the next 30 years.

Imperial’s researchers found that the greatest number of deaths attributable to air pollution were in outer London boroughs, mainly due to the higher proportion of elderly people in these areas, who are more vulnerable to the impacts of air pollution. The boroughs with the highest number of air pollution related deaths in 2019 were Bromley, Barnet, Croydon and Havering. This underlines that pollution is not just a central London problem.

City Hall research shows that those exposed to the worst air pollution are more likely to be deprived Londoners and from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic communities. There is also emerging evidence linking air pollution with an increased vulnerability to the most severe impacts of COVID-19.

Ninety-nine per cent of London does not meet WHO recommended limits for PM2.5 which adds to the growing evidence and cross-party consensus that these limits should be included in the Environment Bill as a legally binding target to be met by 2030. Not only is this needed for the protection of people’s health, but research from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has showed that cleaner air could also boost the economy by £1.6 billion. This means getting the right air quality standards adopted in the Environment Bill is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rebuild our cities and economies to be greener, fairer, and more sustainable. Previous modelling by experts at Imperial College London confirms that achieving these standards is possible if the Government gives the Mayor the additional powers and funding has consistently lobbied for.

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said: “I am enormously proud of the work we have done over the last four years to improve London’s air quality, including delivering the world’s first Ultra Low Emission Zone. We know that London’s toxic air kills, so this new Imperial report confirming that my policies will help extend the life expectancy of children born here is extremely welcome.

“However, the report is a stark reminder that air pollution in our city still represents a public health crisis and urgent action is needed. It’s clear that pollution isn’t just a central London problem, which is why I am committed to expanding the ULEZ in October this year. The recent inquest into Ella Adoo-Kissi-Debrah's death is a painful reminder that the human cost of damage from air pollution is very real and very personal.”

Dr Heather Walton from the Environmental Research Group, Imperial College London, said: “For our study we used a new method to produce the latest estimate of the burden of air pollution on mortality in London in 2019. It is encouraging that we predict good gains in life years across the population over time from air pollution reductions as a result of air quality policies, including those targeted at London.”

Jemima Hartshorn, Founder of Mums for Lungs said: “This report is encouraging, we are pleased to see that the action the Mayor of London is taking will help increase the life expectancy of children in London. I am glad that the expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone in October will have more of an impact in protecting the health of our children. However, this report is also a stark reminder that there are thousands of premature deaths and many more people getting sick from toxic air in our capital. I am calling on the Government to take leadership on this now, and commit to achieving at least WHO recommended guideline limits by 2030 in the new Environment Bill. We cannot afford to delay action on this any further - our children deserve to breathe clean air.”

ENDS

NOTES TO EDITORS

The full report can be found here: https://www.london.gov.uk/WHAT-WE-DO/environment/environment-publications/health-burden-air-pollution-london

The report shows that the air pollution burden in London in 2019, using a recent combined methodology for fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide from the Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants, is a loss of around 62,000 to 70,000 life years across the population - equivalent to around 4,000 attributable deaths.

Air pollution reductions as a result of air quality policies, including those targeted at London, are predicted to lead to a gain of 6.1 million life years when maintained to 2050 and followed for the lifetimes of the population. These air pollution reductions over a lifetime give a predicted average gain in life expectancy of around 5 to 6 months for those born in 2013, compared with 2013 concentrations remaining unchanged.

Link to report on recent improvements in air quality in London: https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/environment/pollution-and-air-quality/air-quality-london-2016-2020

The Ultra-Low Emission Zone will be expanded to the North and South circular roads on 25 October 2021. More information here: https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/ultra-low-emission-zone

As currently drafted, the Environment Bill creates a framework for setting new environmental targets on air quality, water, biodiversity and resource efficiency and waste reduction, with a minimum requirement for one target in each area. However they do not need to be set until 2022 and do not need to be met for 15 years. An additional target must be set specifically for PM2.5, which may or may not be a long-term target.

In addition to introducing the central London ULEZ, since he became Mayor, Sadiq has also:

• Delivered 12 Low Emission Bus Zones ahead of schedule, cutting bus-related NOx emissions by an average of 90 per cent in the zones. From the start of this year the entire core TfL bus network meets ULEZ standards.
• Transformed London's taxi fleet by no longer licensing new diesel taxis and reducing the age limit for older, more polluting cabs with nearly 4,000 zero emission capable taxis now on the street
• Launched air quality audits in 50 schools across 23 London boroughs and in 20 nurseries. The audits assessed the air quality in some of the capital’s worst polluted schools and nurseries and have made a series of recommendations to protect pupils. As well as created a toolkit for use by other schools in London and rest of country, helping to fund some of them with other boroughs now implementing their own audits.
• Almost tripled the amount of protected space for cycling. Through the Mayor’s Streetspace programme we’re now repurposing thousands of square meters of London’s roads to make it easier, and safer, for Londoners to walk and cycle. This includes 430 new School Streets - improving air quality and enabling better social distancing for children and parents on the school run.
• Overseen a marked increase in electric vehicle charging infrastructure, with TfL having delivered over 300 rapid charge points. In total London now has 5,000 charge points – 25 per cent of the UK’s total.

The estimates of NHS costs is from a separate report commissioned by City Hall see https://www.london.gov.uk/WHAT-WE-DO/environment/environment-publications/modelling-long-term-health-impacts-air-pollution-london

The City Hall research on air pollution and deprivation/ethnic groups was published in 2019 https://www.london.gov.uk/press-releases/mayoral/new-report-highlights-findings The same report contains information on the number of schools in areas exceeding pollution limits.

The CBI report was published in 2020: https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/what-is-the-economic-potential-released-by-achieving-clean-air-in-the-uk-1/#:~:text=CBI%20Economics%20research%20on%20behalf,an%20individual%20attends%20work%20ill.

The previous modelling study from researchers at the Environmental Research Group, Imperial College London can be found here https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/pm2.5_in_london_october19.pdf