Ofqual has today (Thursday 3 December) published research into the
predictability of exam papers in the context of 2021
exams. It looks at the factors that influence how
predictable exam papers are and distinguishes between
‘good’ and ‘bad’ predictability.
Ofqual has also published a partner research paper on
exam optionality. This looks at the use of optional
questions and topics in exam papers.
Some stakeholders have suggested using greater
predictability and optionality in GCSE and A level exams to
help address the impact the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
has had on education.
Research into predictability suggests that care must be
taken when changing the format of exams so as not to overly
reduce students’ familiarity with them. While exam topics
or questions that are too predictable encourage
rote-learning, a certain level of familiarity is helpful so
that students can prepare and are not distracted by the
surface features of questions. Familiarity also helps to
reduce student anxiety. In the context of the pandemic,
giving students more – rather than less – certainty over
the format and content of exams will help students show
what they know and can do.
Ofqual’s research, however, which analysed past papers,
suggests that optionality could be less helpful for 2021.
The research shows the difference in difficulty between the
different optional routes through exam papers and
qualifications can vary widely, in some cases by as much as
one grade. Differences in difficulty can usually be managed
through processes such as using marking and/or adjusting
grade boundaries. But the more optionality there is, the
more challenging it can be to do this and the more
unfamiliar the papers become to students
Interim Chief Regulator Dame Glenys Stacey said:
Our research suggests that predictability can be helpful
for students in the form of familiarity with the topics
and - notably - the structure of the questions. It can
help to reduce exam anxiety. This is useful to know in
the context of 2021 exams but it is not a panacea. We
must make sure that exams are not so predictable that
they become simply memory exercises. Students should
still have an engaging learning experience, and the
challenge of a true test.
Optionality might seem an attractive prospect, but our
research shows it can disadvantage the very students we
intend to help. While options can give some students
confidence in exams, they can increase pressure on other
students who may worry about choosing the ‘wrong’ option
or want to change their minds part way through.
Ofqual is considering optionality and predictability, in
conjunction with other measures that can be taken to help
make exams less daunting for students.
