Interim results from the seventh report of one of the country’s
largest studies into COVID-19 infections in England have been
published today by Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI.
Over 105,000 volunteers were tested in England between 13 and 24
November as part of the REACT study, to examine the levels of
infection in the general population.
The findings show cases were rising as the country entered
lockdown but this was followed by a decrease as national measures
successfully lowered infection rates across the country. This
supports findings from SAGE that stronger measures would be
needed in some areas to prevent the epidemic from growing and
that local tiers needed to be toughened to keep the virus under
control once national measures end this week.
Infections fell by over 50% in the North West and North East,
with prevalence highest in the West Midlands, East Midlands and
Yorkshire and the Humber.
While gains have been made to bring down infections, prevalence
of the disease remains high with around 1 in 100 people testing
positive compared to 1 in 80 between 16 October and 2 November.
The main findings from the seventh REACT study show that between
13 and 24 November:
- 96 people per 10,000 infected, down from 132 per 10,000
between 26 October- 2 November;
- The virus was halving every 37 days;
- The national R rate was estimated to be 0.88;
- Prevalence halved in the North West (1.08% down from 2.53%)
and North East (0.72% down from 1.88%), and fell in Yorkshire and
The Humber (1.17% down from 1.8%);
- Prevalence remained high in the East Midlands (1.27% down
from 1.31%), and West Midlands (1.55% down from 1.56%), where
rates are now the highest in the country meaning 155 people per
10,000 have the virus;
- People of Asian ethnicity had increased odds of testing
positive compared with white people;
- People living in the most deprived neighbourhoods had higher
odds of testing positive than those living in less deprived
neighbourhoods; and
- There is an increase in prevalence among people living in the
largest households.
Health and Social Care Secretary said:
“Thanks to the huge efforts of the public over the last few weeks
we have been able to get the virus more under control. This
latest data shows we must keep our resolve and we cannot afford
to take our foot off the pedal just yet, despite the encouraging
fall in cases and progress on vaccines.
“The next few weeks and months are the busiest time of year for
our NHS, so it’s vital we all continue to follow new local
restrictions, wash our hands, wear a face covering and observe
social distancing.”
Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at
Imperial, said:
“Our robust data offers encouraging signs for England’s epidemic,
where we’re seeing a fall in infections at the national level and
in particular across regions that were previously worst affected.
These trends suggest that the tiered approach helped to curb
infections in these areas and that lockdown has added to this
effect.
“As we approach a challenging time of year, it’s even more vital
that through our actions and behaviours we all play our part in
helping to keep the virus at bay.”
This report is the latest from the REACT study which was
commissioned by DHSC and carried out by a world-class team of
scientists, clinicians and researchers at Imperial College
London, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Ipsos MORI.
While infections have fallen across England and the spread has
slowed, it is crucial we safeguard gains made and keep R below 1.
The new regional, tiered system has been strengthened to ensure
infections continue to decrease and stay low. Mass community
testing using rapid lateral flow tests will be offered to areas
facing the toughest restrictions. It will enable areas to detect
asymptomatic cases and isolate them to protect others, stop the
virus from spreading and help move out of the toughest
restrictions.
Decisions on tiers are made by ministers based on public health
recommendations. These are informed by a variety of criteria
including local context, pressure on the NHS as well as case
detection rate, how quickly cases are changing and positivity in
the general population.
Kelly Beaver, Managing Director- Public Affairs at Ipsos
MORI said:
“The REACT study programme has processed over one million tests
as we track in real time the prevalence of COVID-19 across
England. We’re incredibly grateful to all those members of the
public who’ve taken part, who have contributed to this vitally
important study.”
Notes to editors
- More information on the Real-time Assessment of Community
Transmission (REACT) programme of work can be found here –
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-findings/
- This study falls under Pillar 4 of the Covid-19 National
Testing Programme, which focuses on mass surveillance in the
general population.
