The Higher Education Policy Institute has published a new report
looking at future demand for higher education places in the UK
over the next fifteen years. The report, Demand for Higher
Education to 2035 by Rachel Hewitt, builds and expands on HEPI’s
long history of exploring demand for higher education.
The report examines the impact of changing demographics and
participation rates. It shows for England:
if demography were the only factor, without any increase in
participation, there would be an increase in demand of 40,000
full-time higher education places in England by 2035 due to rises
in the 18-year old population;
if participation also increases in the next fifteen years at the
same rate as the average of the last ten years, then this
increases to a demand of 358,000 full time higher education
places by 2035;
the greatest growth in demand will be seen in London and the
South East, due to both demographic changes and patterns of
participation. Our projections suggest that over 40% of demand
for places will be in London and the South East.
In Scotland:
if demography were the only factor, without any increase in
participation, there would be a decrease in demand of 18,000
full-time higher education places in Scotland by 2035 due to a
decline in the 18-year old population;
if participation also increases in the next fifteen years at the
same rate as the average of the last five years, then we can
expect the decrease in demand to shrink to close to nil full-time
higher education places by 2035;
these projections suggest Scotland will be able to accommodate a
growth of participation in higher education without increasing
student numbers, due to a decline in the 18-year old population.
Changes of demand in Northern Ireland are expected to be closer
to Scotland than England due to similar demographic and
participation changes but projections are not calculated due to
methodological differences. Equivalent data is not available for
Wales.
Rachel Hewitt, HEPI Director of Policy and Advocacy and author of
the report, said:
‘There have been declining numbers of 18-year olds in the
population in recent years, which has impacted the way
universities have operated. However, 2020 is the last year of
this trend and universities are set to see a significant rise in
student numbers over the next fifteen years. Among focusing on
their recovery from the current pandemic, universities will need
to consider how they can scale up to incorporate this level of
demand. Government will also need to consider how to best prepare
for this increased level of demand.
‘There are those who would like to see a cap on the number of
students entering higher education. However, these projections
show clearly that if trends in participation continue as in
recent years, capping student numbers in England would deprive a
growing group of students who will be looking to enter higher
education, which would likely be detrimental to the push for
greater equality of access to higher education.
‘Our projections suggest the greatest growth is likely to be seen
in London and the South East, partly due to their existing higher
levels of participation. If government is committed to levelling
up across the country, perhaps the focus should be on the
disparity of participation rates across England, rather than
debating national targets.
‘For policymakers in Scotland, these projections suggest an
easier path to tread. While participation continues to grow, this
is limited by the cap on Scottish students and a decline in the
18-year old population means Scottish universities should be able
to take on more students without having to expand the number of
places available, limiting the cost to the Scottish Government.’
