Oral answers (Lords) on 1) Education: A-level Results and 2) Schools: Spending per Pupil - Sep 23

Asked by

Baroness Garden of Frognal

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they made of external expert advice prior to the use of the algorithm to determine A-level results for the 2019/20 academic year.

The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Education and Department for International Trade (Baroness Berridge) (Con)

My Lords, the independent qualifications regulator, Ofqual, is responsible for securing qualification standards and promoting public confidence in regulated qualifications. As part of the development of the grading system introduced in place of exams this summer, Ofqual drew on the advice of experts from the exam boards and convened an external group of well-respected assessment experts to advise on the principles, main features and details of various aspects of the standardisation model.

Baroness Garden of Frognal (LD)

My Lords, expert advice early on identified the algorithm as flawed and particularly damaging for state school and disadvantaged pupils. We have been told that the Secretary of State was fully in charge of his department throughout this debacle, yet two senior officials have resigned, which is outrageous. When I tabled this Question four weeks ago, I thought that he might have fallen on his sword by now—but no. So can the Minister confirm that the Conservative Government, with the exception of the noble and learned Lord, Lord Keen, have abandoned the principles of ministerial honour and responsibility?

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, on the standardisation model, Ofqual is a non-departmental body. It is important in principle that our examinations are not subject to government interference. While the department was in contact with Ofqual during this process, the decisions made on the algorithm were Ofqual’s. That respects the appropriate relationship between a department and independent bodies such as Ofqual.

Lord Baker of Dorking (Con) [V]

Algorithms were a failure this year; they will not happen next year. Today, there are thousands of students—possibly even hundreds of thousands of students—who are not at school because of the lack of testing. On Monday, Liverpool University Technical College had to send home all year 10, year 11 and year 12 children—hundreds of children, who may be out for 10 days. This will happen all over the school estate. There will not be a level playing field of attendance records for students, and it will not be their fault. It is therefore very unfair to test them by written exams next year, because each student will have a different level of attendance. The Government should recognise that teacher assessment will be needed this year, in which case they should issue guidance to teachers now on the state of reports they will have to keep on each student, not only on attendance but on progress. If written exams happen next year, the brightest children will do well and the disadvantaged will do very badly. That is simply not fair.

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, every Tuesday, the department publishes attendance data. As of yesterday, nearly 88% of students in state-funded schools and institutions were in school. The guidance published before the summer holidays made it clear to schools that by the end of this month they must be able to stand up remote education in the eventuality that pupils are sent home in these circumstances. We are working with Ofqual, which is looking at the arrangements for next year’s examinations.

Lord Singh of Wimbledon (CB) [V]

My Lords, the algorithm for predicting A-level results this summer was clearly too harsh, leading to overcompensation using teacher predictions and subsequent difficulty finding college and university places in subjects such as medicine. If the physical sitting of exams again proves impossible this summer, will the Minister ensure that the timetable for publishing results allows more time for the better matching of teacher and improved algorithm predictions with the availability of places in higher education?

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, on the important issue of the placing of students—particularly for A-levels, which are more often progression exams—the noble Lord will be aware that the Government, working closely with higher education institutions, lifted the cap on certain courses to raise capacity. The most recent figures are that 89% of students who received a grade increase have got their original offer, their insurance offer or an offer at an institution with the same tariff as their original offer.

Baroness Morris of Yardley (Lab)

My Lords, the most frustrating element of the algorithm was that it assumed that schools could not improve on previous years’ best performance. That seems contrary to what any Education Minister should believe about the power of schools to improve and change children’s lives. Did that element of the algorithm come from an external expert? If so, why was it accepted?

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, as the noble Baroness will be aware, Ofqual consulted on the methodology and what aspects to include in the algorithm. The issue of what we termed “outliers”—highly performing students in institutions which have previously not performed well—was raised and was in the balance; students who might be affected in that way could be put right through the appeals processes. However, when the balance became such that the level of anomalies outweighed this, the more just situation became to use teacher assessment grades rather than the algorithm to assess grades.

Lord Addington (LD)

My Lords, could the Minister give us an absolute assurance that this algorithm or anything like it will never be used again? That is something we should hear today.

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, all four nations of the United Kingdom attempted to use this method. At the moment, the Office for Statistics Regulation, which is part of the UK Statistics Authority, is looking at the algorithms used for all four nations. However, it is intended that exams will go ahead this summer.

Lord Watson of Invergowrie (Lab)

My Lords, the Secretary of State, the Department for Education and Ofqual were all warned by Cambridge Assessment of serious flaws in the grading of exams two weeks before A-level results were published, yet no action was taken. Much more seriously, the Royal Statistical Society has said that the issues with the algorithm could have been avoided had independent expert advice been taken. As far back as April, the society highlighted to Ofqual the problems coming down the road and suggested the establishment of an advisory panel involving independent statisticians to deal with them. Can the Minister explain to the hundreds of thousands of young people whose lives and education have been disrupted unnecessarily why that course of action was not taken?

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, a member of the RSS was present on the expert advisory group at Ofqual, which I have already outlined. Ofqual tested 12 different models of the algorithm. During the algorithm’s development, there were various meetings between the department and Ofqual, and we were assured that any irregularities in its application could be put right through an appeals process. We responded when an issue arose in Scotland around its use of an algorithm.

Lord Lucas (Con) [V]

My Lords, will the Government conduct research into the extraordinarily large difference between predicted grades and actual grades at A-level, so that we can understand why deprived children fall below predicted grades so often and do something about it?

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, there was a rise of about 12% in the top grades awarded this summer. We are not in a position to go behind the teacher assessment grades. The only appeal available to students is on the basis of administrative error in giving those teacher-assessed grades to the exam boards.

Lord Houghton of Richmond (CB)

I draw noble Lords’ attention to my relevant interests in the register as an adviser to a decision science company. Does the Minister agree that the approach taken to determine the outcome of this year’s A-level results clearly demonstrates that using an algorithm or human expert judgment in isolation is flawed, and that highly complicated decision-making by government needs to embrace decision science, which seeks to exploit the right balance of artificial intelligence and human judgment?

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, in relation to the involvement of human decision and algorithms, I have outlined the current investigation into the algorithm, but I will take back what the noble and gallant Lord says, because at the moment we in the department are at the juncture of Ofqual having consulted on the timing of exams next year.

Baroness Warwick of Undercliffe (Lab)

My Lords, universities have the challenge of speedily picking up the pieces at the end of this sorry episode. Can the Minister tell us how the Government plan to support universities ahead of next year’s admissions cycle to ensure that the year 13 students from this year, who have already faced Covid disruption, are not further disadvantaged by places already being filled by students who had to defer this year?

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, we are grateful to the many staff behind the scenes in the admissions departments of universities who have managed to achieve the statistic I outlined previously. My colleague Minister Donelan is working with the higher education task force, which works closely with the universities. There are discussions around capacity of places for next year and particular concern about any delay in exams. Ofqual has been consulting on this to make sure that discussions are ongoing in the other section of the system, which is the admissions process.

Schools: Spending per Pupil

Asked by

Lord Watson of Invergowrie

To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies 2020 annual report on education spending in England: schools, published on 18 September, what plans they have to increase school spending per pupil.

The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Education and Department for International Trade (Baroness Berridge) (Con)

My Lords, we are investing more in schools over the next three years, starting with an additional £2.6 billion this year and rising to £7.1 billion by 2022-23, compared to 2019-20. This will ensure that per pupil funding for every school can rise at least in line with inflation this year, and faster than inflation for most. The IFS has said that this investment will near enough restore schools’ per pupil funding to previous levels in real terms.

Lord Watson of Invergowrie (Lab)

My Lords, I thank the noble Baroness for that Answer, but schools in England have suffered the most severe funding cut in 40 years, with the biggest brunt falling on secondary schools in areas with the lowest 20% of incomes. School spending has decreased by around £1,000 per pupil over the past 10 years, and even the extra £7.1 billion which the Minister just mentioned will not reverse those cuts; there will still be a 1% in gap in funding since 2010. I should say that 1% equates to around £500 million per year.

With the Covid catch-up fund due to be spread across all schools, regardless of disadvantage, I ask the Minister when the Government’s commitment to levelling up educational opportunity will be translated into a greater targeting of additional funding to schools in more deprived areas, and a real increase in funding per pupil.

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, the national funding formula obviously takes deprivation into account, and 18% of that formula—£6.2 billion—is aimed at disadvantaged students. That is in addition to any supplementary funding such as that for music hubs, which is also directed funding to free school meal areas. There is also, in the catch-up fund, the £350 million national tutoring programme, aimed at disadvantaged students. Some of the figures that the noble Lord outlines, in relation to schools in the most deprived areas, relate to the fact that the most deprived students are now spread across more areas of the country. That is why there has been a decrease in funding in some of the most deprived areas, because the most deprived students—for whom the funding is there—are spread more evenly across the country. Therefore, the funding formula has taken that into account.

Baroness Watkins of Tavistock (CB)

My Lords, I welcome the IFS report, which clearly outlines that the recent and future strategy for education spending in England was on track to deliver the Government’s commitment to level up poorer regions of the country and to narrow the achievement gap between children from rich and poor families. However, the closure of schools during lockdown, and the need to restructure both teaching timetables and physical resources, is creating immense challenges for schools, which I particularly understand as a previous chair of a large academy in a deprived area in Plymouth.

I welcome the extra provision that the Government have already committed in recognition of the difficulties ahead for pupils and staff this year—but is it enough? Could the Minister inform the House whether additional funds will be announced, in the forthcoming spending review, for sixth-form pupils to accelerate their learning where cuts had been significant in previous years? Will there be a capital investment programme to return school buildings to at least a satisfactory or good condition, which the National Audit Office estimated in 2017 would cost in the region of £6.7 billion?

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, in relation to the particular challenges—I mentioned those attendance statistics, and one cannot underestimate the effort made in our schools to get attendance at that level. In relation to 16 to 19 year-olds, £96 million of the national tutoring programme fund is aimed at disadvantaged students in that year group, and an extra £400 million is going into 16 to 19 funding. Indeed, we should in the autumn get the list of the first 50 schools that will be rebuilt under the repair programme. Over the last five years, £23 billion has gone into the school estate. The noble Baroness is correct that we need to accelerate the building programme, not only to give our children the buildings they need to learn in but to motivate the economy and the recovery that we need.

Baroness Uddin (Non-Afl)

My Lords, the House will have become familiar with the many government pronouncements of overwhelming investment in education and public services. Equally, the House will have noted the persistent and alarming social divisions shamefully ever increasing in the fifth-largest economy in the world. With the Government’s levelling-up agenda and intention to close the gap between students from wealthy backgrounds and those who battle an onslaught of socioeconomic conditions—poor housing, poverty, racial and religious discrimination, and now the digital divide—what additional resources have the Government allocated to meet these challenges? Does the forward strategy include increasing the recruitment, retention and promotion of teachers from minority communities in leadership positions, which remains unacceptably low?

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, in relation to the issues that the noble Baroness outlined, the Government are obviously concerned about the attainment gap and are trying to ensure that students from disadvantaged backgrounds have the opportunity of a great education. That is why £2.4 billion has gone into the system as pupil premium money for those students. At the moment, we have spent £100 million on remote education, and in addition to the 220,000 laptops that have been distributed, another 150,000 are being delivered to ensure that we can help schools, particularly in those areas with disadvantaged students, if they have to learn at home. As I have outlined, the national funding formula prioritises the most deprived students, and a significant proportion of that money goes to them.

BAME teachers are part of the recruitment strategy. In relation to governors, we are now making it a KPI of the forthcoming contract subject to spending review that they should be able to achieve targets for BAME representation in the governing of our schools.

Baroness Whitaker (Lab)

My Lords, schools might be saving money on the large number of children being home educated, many of whom then miss out on proper education entirely and are vulnerable to being caught up in county lines and criminal gangs. What are the Government doing to enable proper standards in, and preferably to register, home education?

Baroness Berridge (Con)

My Lords, the noble Baroness may be aware that, before the pandemic, the Government had consulted on precisely that issue of whether to have a register for the local authority of those who are home educated. There will be in the coming months, when it is appropriate, a response to that consultation. At the moment, the teams on the ground are in contact with local authorities, and we have made it clear to local authorities that we want as much data as possible on trends in home education. We are advising local authorities to make clear to any parents thinking of opting for home education, although it is their right, the responsibility and obligation that this is. Delivering home education is very different from supervising at home the curriculum delivered by schools, and we recognise the safeguarding issues for many children if they are electively home educated but are then not actually being educated.