- Health Secretary welcomes initial findings from Imperial
College London suggesting there was a significant reduction of
the virus before lockdown restrictions were eased
- Findings provide a baseline for further research into how the
virus is spreading in England
The Health Secretary has today welcomed the findings of the
largest study to date into coronavirus rates of infection by
Imperial College London.
The research, which examined levels of infection in the general
population in England, has been posted by Imperial College
London. The report will undergo peer review before a final report
is published.
Imperial’s research shows the rates of infection fell during May,
the last month of lockdown, halving every 8 to 9 days. There were
on average 13 positive cases for every 10,000 people, with an
overall reproduction number of 0.57 – lower than previously
reported.
These findings show the virus was circulating with relatively low
prevalence and was declining in May, ahead of the decision being
made to begin to lift lockdown restrictions.
Health and Social Care Secretary said:
This ambitious testing programme will help us better understand
the spread of the virus to date, predict how it may spread in
the future and inform our response to the pandemic.
It shows the impact our national lockdown efforts have had and
demonstrates that we have taken the right actions at the right
time.
As a country we have made great strides towards beating this
virus but we mustn’t take our foot off the pedal, and such
studies will be vital as we continue to fight this virus.
The report provides an insight into who was infected with the
virus between 1 May and 1 June over lockdown, comparing
geography, age, sex, ethnicity, key worker status and symptoms.
The key findings include:
- Young adults, aged 18 to 24, were more likely to test
positive than other age groups, reinforcing the need for this age
group to adhere to social distancing measures to protect
vulnerable friends and family
- Those of Asian ethnicity were more likely to test positive
than those of white ethnicity. It is possible that higher
infection rates have contributed towards the higher death rates
observed in this ethnic group
- Care home staff and healthcare workers were more likely to be
infected with COVID-19 during lockdown than the general
population, at a time when the public was following government
advice to stay at home, therefore limiting their exposure to the
virus. Those who had patient-facing roles were more likely to be
in contact with known cases as part of their work
The report also shows anyone who had recent contact with a known
COVID-19 case was 24 times more likely to test positive than
those with no such contacts.
The NHS Test and Trace service is therefore playing an integral
role in stopping the virus from spreading further having already
contacted 130,000 people at risk of unwittingly transmitting the
virus and advising them to self-isolate.
The Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT-1)
programme is the largest, most significant piece of research
looking at how the virus is spreading across the country.
It was commissioned by DHSC and carried out by a world-class team
of scientists, clinicians and researchers at Imperial College
London, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Ipsos MORI.
Professor Paul Elliott, FMedSci, Director of the programme at
Imperial College London, said:
Community testing is a vital step in ongoing efforts to
mitigate the pandemic, but to be successful this must be based
on robust scientific evidence and sound statistics.
Through this surveillance programme with DHSC and Ipsos MORI
we’re gathering the critical knowledge base necessary to
underpin community testing and facilitate a greater
understanding of the prevalence of COVID-19 in every corner of
England.
Kelly Beaver, Managing Director, Public Affairs at Ipsos MORI,
said:
At home community testing at this scale has not been delivered
before across England. As a partnership between DHSC, Imperial
College London, and Ipsos MORI it has taken significant
innovation, perseverance and skill to ensure it has been a
success, with lessons learned feeding into future phases of
this study and shared with the wider academic community through
a transparent publication process.
We want to thank all the study participants for their time, and
contribution, it has been fantastic to be engaging with the
public at this scale on an issue of such national importance.
This first report provides a baseline for further research and
the information will provide local authorities with a clearer
picture of the spread of the virus to help inform measures
tailored to limit its spread and save lives.
The study has also been upscaled and repeated for the month of
June, with a report expected within weeks.
In the second part of the programme (REACT-2), a number of
different antibody tests have been assessed for their accuracy
and ease of use at home. These tests look for evidence that
someone has been infected in the past. This has been rolled out
to 100,000 people to identify the levels of antibodies against
the virus that causes COVID-19 in the general public.
- Other key findings include:
- There were no significant differences seen between males
and females and no significant evidence of geographic
clustering although measured levels were highest in London
and lowest in the South West
- 69% of people testing positive reported no symptoms on
the day of the test or the previous week. However, they may
have developed symptoms later on and it doesn’t show how
infectious they might have been at this time
- In the first report from REACT-1, over 120,000 randomly
selected people over the age of 5 from across England volunteered
to provide nose and throat swabs. These were tested for antigens
indicating the presence of the virus to show whether someone is
currently infected with COVID-19
- In line with government guidance those with positive test
results and their household were asked to self-isolate
- This study was upscaled and repeated at the end of June with
150,000 participants
- The pre-print report can be accessed at www.medrxiv.org
- The report was commissioned by DHSC and carried out by a
world-class team of scientists, clinicians and researchers at
Imperial College London, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust
and Ipsos MORI
- More information on the REal-time Assessment of Community
Transmission (REACT) programme of work can be found
at www.reactstudy.org
- This study falls under pillar 4 of the COVID-19 National
Testing Programme, which focuses on mass surveillance in the
general population. This is the first study which looks at a
representative cross-section of the whole population
