Article in ConservativeHome by Garvan Walshe, former
National and International Security Policy Adviser to the
Conservative Party.
Blocked by coalition partners to his left, denounced as a
sell-out by the settlers on the right, risking the ire of his new
Arab friends and an expensive dispute with Brussels, Netanyahu
won’t be the first Jew hung out to dry by Donald Trump.
Back in ancient times BC – that is, “before Covid” – Trump put
together a Middle East peace plan inspired by his past as a real
estate developer. The plan
itself was absurd, but it contained an important win for
Netanyahu, opening up the chance to formally annex land before a
peace agreement was concluded with the Palestinians.
Previously, formal annexation (though not, of course, de facto
Israeli control), would only come at the end, as part of agreed
land swaps. As ever, this was more than a strategic gain, it
would also allow Netanyahu to rally his base against the
purported left-wing plot to remove him by having him tried for
corruption.
Having used Covid-19 to manoeuvre his rival Benny Gantz into a
coalition government, and mistakenly believing the disease was
under control (a new outbreak has put Israel’s health system on
the backfoot again), Bibi now turned back to annexation, and
promised to unveil his plan by July 1.
Things are not however going to plan. The first obstacle is Gantz
himself. Gantz has the support of Netanyahu’s greatest enemy
beginning with the letter “I” – the Israel Defence Forces, of
which he used to be Chief of Staff. For it is IDF men and women
who will bear the brunt of the renewed Palestinian uprising
annexation is expected to provoke.
Gantz has said he’s not opposed to annexation in principle, but
appears to have worked out how to use the Americans to stymie it.
He will only support annexation if the Americans are on board,
and the Americans will only do so if it is accompanied by Israel
recognising a Palestinian state.
Israel’s right-wing opposition parties are distinctly unhappy
about that. Unable to see that gaining acceptance of the
principle of annexation is the biggest opportunity for them to
overcome the Oslo Accords which prevent it, they are using it to
solidify their position against Netanyahu. The problem they have
identified is the recognition of a Palestinian state, which they
are against accepting even on the very minimal territory it will
be granted.
One can’t entirely blame them. They, of all people, know that
borders can be changed over time through determined political
activity.
His third problem is diplomatic. Netanyahu has been pursuing a
normalisation of diplomacy with Arab kings and dictators to
considerable success. Israel now cooperates well with Egypt, and
has even developed a reasonable working relationship with Saudi
Arabia.
Though it is based on a shared opposition to Iran and as well as
skepticism towards Arabs voting, it does at least require some
lip service to be paid to the most theoretical of peace processes
with the Palestinians. Annexation could damage that relationship.
Another headache is provided by the EU, which could well impose
sanctions. The visit to Amman last week by Heiko Maas, Germany’s
Foreign Minister, emphasised the danger here. While Germany is
the EU’s strongest defender of Israel, for obvious historical
reasons, the one thing it cannot countenance is the unilateral
amendment of borders, for the same historical reasons. Meanwhile,
even Russia, with typical consistency, has declared itself
opposed to the land grab.
Finally, if earlier in the year, Trump stood a decent chance of
being reelected; he is now in deep trouble. As I write
the Εconomist’s presidential poll predictor
has him winning just 197 of the 270 electoral votes needed. A
Biden administration, to say nothing of the even more Democratic
Congress that would accompany his victory, is expected to be
hostile.
It seems the time for a full-dress annexation, yielding what
Israeli hawks call “defensible borders,” is running out, but
Netanyahu would not be the world’s greatest political
escapologist if he didn’t find a way through.
It may lie through a group of settlements known as Gush Etzion,
in the Judean hills south of Jerusalem. These had originally been
settled by Zionists before Israel’s independence, but were taken
by Arab forces in 1948, and only rebuilt after Israel occupied
the West bank in 1967. This history provides a figleaf to justify
their formal incorporation into Israel and allow the US, EU and
Saudi Arabia to pretend it doesn’t establish a precedent, and a
figleaf is all Netanyahu ever needs to conjure up a convincing
story.
