There is no simple North–South or urban–rural divide in the likely
geographic impact of the COVID-19 crisis across England. Areas
whose residents look particularly vulnerable to the health effects
are not in general the same as those likely to be hit hardest by
job losses. Areas with more children at particular risk, because
they are poor or have been referred to children’s services, tend to
be different again. That said, some local authorities do look
vulnerable in multiple...Request free
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There is no simple North–South or urban–rural divide in the likely
geographic impact of the COVID-19 crisis across England. Areas
whose residents look particularly vulnerable to the health effects
are not in general the same as those likely to be hit hardest by
job losses. Areas with more children at particular risk, because
they are poor or have been referred to children’s services, tend to
be different again.
That said, some local authorities do look vulnerable in multiple
dimensions. Two areas that stand out as most vulnerable
on all three dimensions are Torbay and the Isle of Wight,
reflecting their elderly populations, economic reliance on tourism
and hospitality, and pockets of local socio-economic
disadvantage.
These are among findings of new IFS analysis, funded by the
Nuffield Foundation and part of the IFS Deaton Review of
Inequalities. The research finds that the balance
between protecting public health, enabling economic activity and
minimising the social costs of isolation could look very different
in different parts of England, and are often very different even in
neighbouring local authorities.
The report also finds that:
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Coastal areas are notably vulnerable to both health
and economic impacts of the crisis. Many coastal
towns have elderly populations vulnerable to COVID-19 and a lot
of low-paid work in the hospitality sector. Many are already
deprived, and the crisis could exacerbate that.
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Areas in the northern spine of England are more
vulnerable than average to health impacts and impacts on
families and children: these include South Yorkshire,
Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire, which have relatively older and
more deprived populations where children may be especially at
risk from lost schooling. Other such areas are clustered in the
West Midlands (particularly around Birmingham) and in the
cities of the North West and North East.
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On average, it is more affluent local authorities
where local labour markets might take a bigger
hit. While workers in locked-down sectors like
retail and hospitality are often low earners, many of them work
in relatively well-off areas.
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While there are some regional patterns in
vulnerability, in many cases neighbouring local authorities
look set to have very different experiences of the
crisis. For example, Nottinghamshire has very
different exposure from that of neighbouring Leicestershire on
all three dimensions of vulnerability.
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While London has seen some of the highest rates of
COVID-19 so far, its younger population is less vulnerable to
experiencing serious symptoms from the
disease. There has been a very unequal health
effect within London though, with those boroughs (such as
Camden and Islington) with younger, healthier populations
having seen fewer confirmed COVID-19 cases (per 10,000
residents) and lower COVID-19 death rates. However, many London
boroughs will face significant economic and social costs, as
shut-down sectors such as hospitality and tourism are important
employers and many children are from disadvantaged
families.
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Designing policy to reflect these different local
needs will require a highly coordinated response drawing on
different services and layers of government. Local
government is responsible for children’s services, whilst
education is split between local government and academies.
Economic and health policy will also require input from
national government and from the NHS.
Alex Davenport, an IFS Research Economist and an
author of the report, said:
"There is a small group of local authorities in England where
public health, local jobs and families are all more vulnerable than
average. While several of these areas are in the North West, the
group includes local authorities from Dorset to Northumberland. But
it is Torbay and the Isle of Wight that stand out as the most
highly vulnerable, reflecting their elderly populations, reliance
on tourism and hospitality, and pockets of socio-economic
disadvantage."
Imran Rasul, Research Director at IFS and Professor of
Economics at University College London, and another author of the
report, said:
"There is no single measure that captures all the different types
of vulnerability during this crisis. The risks to public health,
local economies and vulnerable families are spread across England
in a patchwork. The crisis will require policymakers at different
levels to coordinate their response, since the geography of
vulnerabilities has shifted away from the traditional North–South
or urban–rural divides."
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