Asked by
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of
the projected level of unemployment over the next 12 months.
The Minister of State, Cabinet Office and the Treasury () (Con) [V]
My Lords, we must accept that the coronavirus will have a very
significant adverse impact on our economy. The Office for Budget
Responsibility reference scenario assumes that the unemployment
rate will rise to 10% in the second quarter of 2020. However, the
Government have announced unprecedented support for public
services, workers and business to help mitigate the impact of the
current economic emergency. As the OBR said,
“the cost of inaction would ultimately have been … higher.”
(Con) [V]
I thank my noble friend for his Answer. Sadly, we will hear of
many redundancies in the coming weeks and months. Can I ask Her
Majesty’s Government to be bold in initiating a range of green
infrastructure projects that will provide much-needed jobs as
well as improving the nation’s quality of life?
[V]
My noble friend raises an important point. Certainly, a great
deal of thinking is going on at the moment about how we can
turbocharge investment in green energy. Indeed, our Budget for
virus lockdown provided a plank for a lot of these initiatives.
(Lab) [V]
My Lords, yesterday, the OECD said that the UK had experienced
the worst economic impact in the G7 from the Covid-19 pandemic,
which is on top of the fact that we are already seeing a surge in
job losses. What targeted help can the Minister offer the
hardest-hit sectors of the economy, such as hospitality and
tourism which, when the furlough scheme comes to an end, will
take longer to reopen and recover?
[V]
As the noble Lord will know, we have announced an unprecedented
level of support across the economy which includes these
particularly hard-hit areas. As he will also know, we announced
yesterday that shops will be able to reopen next week as part of
our gradual and phased reopening of the economy. The Government
are meeting regularly with members of the entertainment and
leisure sectors to look at all possible solutions to help them
get back into business as quickly as possible.
(LD) [V]
My Lords, during this period of great instability for businesses,
many self-employed people have received no help at all. Freelance
musicians, cleaners, taxi drivers, hairdressers and millions more
have seen their incomes evaporate. As we move forward to a
staggered start to normality, will the Government put in place a
bespoke system of support for the self-employed so that their
businesses and jobs do not disappear as well?
[V]
The Government’s overarching priority is to reopen the economy as
quickly as is safely possible. That is how the groups the noble
Lord has referred to will be able to start earning their incomes
again as quickly as they can. We have in place a suite of support
mechanisms for all those who have been the hardest hit, including
the groups listed by the noble Lord.
(Con) [V]
My Lords, some of the latest forecasts about the economy are
extremely worrying, especially for younger people. Is it not the
case that the best way to avoid levels of mass unemployment as we
exit lockdown is through policies designed to promote enterprise
and growth and to set businesses free? Does my noble friend agree
that, in this respect, tax rises on business, tempting as that
might be for some, would be absolutely fatal to recovery and
employment right across the United Kingdom?
[V]
Of course we want to see businesses feeling confident in their
approach to coming out of this crisis. However, I cannot give a
commitment on behalf of the Chancellor on what the future tax
structure will look like. These matters will have to be looked at
in the light of how the economy responds over the next few
months.
(CB) [V]
My Lords, the OECD has predicted that the level of unemployment
in this country will reach 11.7% in the third quarter. Will the
Minister and his colleagues work with the DWP to adjust the
universal credit system and introduce active labour market
policies that support unemployed people back into work
effectively, as Sweden has shown most particularly? Many of those
jobs could be green jobs; such policies could take the place of
the sanctions regime in the universal credit system, which does
little else other than punish people who are unable to find work.
[V]
As the noble Baroness will know, our furlough scheme has been one
of the most generous in Europe, and the whole point of it is to
protect productive capacity. We certainly hope that, over the
next few months, its gradual withdrawal will give businesses time
to adjust and come to terms with what the opportunities are for
them to get back into business. We will certainly keep the
mechanisms of universal credit under review. However, it is a far
more flexible system than existed in the past.
(Lab) [V]
My Lords, as my noble friend Lord Reid pointed out, the OECD said
yesterday that Britain’s economy would suffer the worst damage
from the Covid-19 pandemic of any G7 country. I do not think that
the Minister gave my noble friend a specific answer to his
question, so perhaps I may ask again what specifically targeted
help he will be able to offer those in the hardest-hit sectors of
the economy, which will take longer to reopen and recover.
[V]
As the noble Lord probably is aware, we have given significant
support to areas such as entertainment in the form of grants and
business rates relief. For those that missed out on rates relief,
we brought in the additional £600 million facility for local
authorities to support those businesses that were not in the
business rates relief regime. We will continue to assess the
situation and we have ensured that several of these types of
businesses, such as garden centres, have reopened recently.
Yesterday, we announced that zoos can reopen. As we come up with
a formula for businesses to reopen safely, we will continue to do
that.
(LD) [V]
My Lords, millions of people depend on work in businesses that
could function well if we had the one-metre rule recommended by
the World Health Organization and adopted by countries such as
China, which have successfully repressed the coronavirus. We
still have a two-metre rule, which makes many of those jobs
impossible to do. How quickly will the Government come to a
conclusion to change the distance to one metre, which medical
advisers have made clear is a decision for Ministers, not simply
a medical one?
[V]
The noble Lord makes a good point and I certainly expect the
debate about the distance to carry on. I share his concern about
seeing the distance reduced, because it would enable a lot more
businesses to open. We will see what the outcome of that debate
is over the next few days and weeks.
(Lab)
[V]
My Lords, on 28 May, the Prime Minister said that we needed to
work together to get our shared goals, including the sustainable
development goals, back on track. He has also spoken about the
need to “build back better”. On Tuesday, more than 100 leaders of
major businesses and organisations called on the Government to
include the sustainable development goals at the heart of their
recovery plan. Will they heed this advice?
[V]
The advice will be taken in the context of our overall economic
recovery. Our first priorities have to be keeping this country
safe and getting our businesses reopened, and it is only by
having a healthy economy that we will be able to become heavily
involved in the sustainable issues referred to by the noble Lord.
(Con)
My Lords, can the Minister indicate what assessment the
Government have made of the number of people who will lose their
jobs as a direct result of the two-metre rule? If no such
assessment has been made, how is it possible for the Government
to credibly continue with this policy in the light of the World
Health Organization’s advice that one metre is adequate?
[V]
My Lords, I think that the scientific evidence is relatively
clear that the risk of transmission of the disease declines
exponentially with the distance between people who are
interacting with one another. The argument, of course, is about
the level of risk that we are prepared to take—the shorter the
distance, the greater the risk; it is relatively simple. However,
I support my noble friend’s concerns and I hope that the debate
will continue.
