The Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) has
published a new report examining global trends in city
development and predicting how cities are likely to evolve.
The analysts, from the Defence and Security Analysis Division,
looked at a broad range of factors, including the influence of
technology (including so-called “smart cities”), climate and
demographic changes, economic integration and infrastructure
developments.
This work aims to build on the endorsed future vision of the
Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre’s (DCDC) ‘Future
Operating Environment (2035)’ and ‘Global Strategic Trends
(2050)’, both of which highlight urbanisation as one of the
principal challenges facing Defence in the future. This report
attempts to bridge the gap between these future predictions and
our current doctrine which is based on our present understanding
of cities.
The output from this report will help the UK military to
determine where there are significant challenges on the horizon;
therefore allowing them to examine potential options to mitigate
or better prepare for them. Urban warfare, and ‘grey zone’
conflicts, are becoming priority areas for Defence, and Dstl is
looking at how Defence can adapt to overcome the challenges that
urban terrain not only presents now, but will present in the near
future.
The Dstl report states:
As the future operating environment is going to be increasingly
urbanised, the UK military must consider this environment as a
primary driver of capabilities.
The military will likely have to change its roles and structure
to reflect the growing prominence and changing nature of the
urban environment.
As well as studying the future landscape, Dstl is also leading on
a number of projects looking at innovative tech to answer some of
the challenges of urban warfare. Working in partnership with
industry and with US, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand
colleagues, prototypes including remote sensing, exoskeletons for
soldiers, and mini-drones are being tested. The Future Cities
report is helping to shape this experiment so the technologies
are being tested against these future challenges.
A Dstl spokesperson said:
This report is vital for our MOD customers to understand the
future of cities and how it will impact on their operational
requirements and emerging doctrine.
In the area of Smart Cities, the report predicts:
Routine online usage will no longer be confined to computers
and phones. Other devices will increasingly be interconnected
to one another through the “Internet of Things.” It also looks
at environmental factors, such as a rise in pollution levels
and rising water inequality, leading to greater sources of
conflict.
The report also states that:
Expanding cities may make it impossible to isolate or even
by-pass urban areas.
The report looks at smart cities in the context of the new
frontline, and its impact on our troops:
Increasing verticality and the “urban canyon” (as well as
subterranean) will impose severe constraints on UK
Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and
Reconnaissance (ISTAR), fire and manoeuvre capabilities.
Verticality also concentrates the population making them more
accessible to both the UK and adversaries posing both
opportunities and challenges.
Changes to how people view authority and are also shifting in
cities throughout the world, stating:
The different forms of governance that the UK will have to
interact with could be extensive, with national, international,
city, district, neighbourhood, street and even sections of
buildings having their own “legitimate” leaders with varying
authorities and, potentially, conflicting roles.
Work like this highlights the importance of Dstl to UK science
for Defence and security. Not only does it respond to customer
demands, it also provides thought leadership across the defence
and security domains. This report is the second in a series on
understanding the future urban operating environment. The first;
Urban Adversaries, has already informed the Land Warfare Centre’s
urban experiment and has been used at the Infantry Battle School
in Brecon.
