This is a time of unprecedented change in transport, Sir
, Government Chief
Scientific Adviser will say today at the launch of
the Foresight Future of
Mobility Report.
The UK is well placed to capitalise on the exciting opportunities
offered by transport technologies and innovation which will
benefit the economy, society and the citizen. The Industrial
Strategy and in particular the Mobility Grand Challenge will be
central to helping us realise this ambition, building on the UK’s
world leading expertise and knowledge.
The report finds that technologies such as self-driving and
zero-emission vehicles will drive innovation in the future.
Behavioural and social sciences will be essential to maximise the
impact of these technologies allowing us to develop a clear
understanding of how citizens and businesses make decisions and
interact with the transport system.
The report also finds that the movement of goods around the
country is an equally important consideration. In 2017 logistics
added £121 billion to the UK economy and employed 2.5 million
people. Data will grow in importance to 2040. Therefore the
ability to use data to integrate different forms of transport,
both passenger and freight, will be key.
Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir said:
Transport is more than just travel, it connects people, places
and shapes the way we live. The UK was a pioneer of transport
technologies throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, and we can
be at the forefront of the next transport revolution.
We must grasp the opportunities to fully exploit our potential
and create a transport system fit for the future. To be
successful, industry, academia and policy-makers will need to
work together, with the user at the heart of the system. 
, Future of Mobility Minister,
said:
We want our new Future of Mobility Grand Challenge to encourage
innovations that will usher in an era of easier, safer and
cleaner travel.  
But great innovation and rapid technological change need to be
based on robust evidence and a deep understanding of human
behaviour.  This report is a very useful contribution to that
evidence base.
Key findings:
-
Data is already driving change in the system. Using and
sharing data securely and in ways that benefit both companies
and public authorities is key. Transport for London’s shared
data generates around £130 million per year for the economy.
-
Closer to real-time understanding of systems is possible,
improving understanding of trends and making it easier to
design more integrated systems, spot disruptive trends
sooner, and improving decision-making.
-
The movement of goods continues to be critical to our
economy. Two billion tonnes of goods were moved in the UK in
2016, 89% by road. There are opportunities out to 2040 for
technology in freight. A growing population and demand for
quicker deliveries in narrower windows, puts pressure on
urban freight deliveries. This, combined with the changing
nature of work, increases the number of vans.
-
Hard and soft measures are likely to be key to achieving
change, linked with clear goals. This means that the
potential of technologies such as self-driving vehicles (be
those buses, droids, cars or trains) to support wider
objectives can be realised. In Stockholm, through a
combination of investing in separate cycling lanes and
campaigns, the proportion of cycling trips increased from 5
to 9% between 2004 and 2015.
-
The right solution is needed for each place. Urban, sub-urban
and rural areas all require different responses. In rural
areas 87% of trips are by car/van and 78% in urban areas, in
London the figure drops to 53%.
-
There has been profound social change over the last 20 years.
For example, commuting trips are down 20% per person,
shopping trips are down 20% per person. Since 2002 the annual
distance driven by each car driver is down about 12%.
-
The nature of work, retail, and leisure are changing.
People’s and businesses responses to this are shaping new
travel patterns and behaviours. For example, in 2018, 17.9%
of all retail sales were internet sales, compared to 3.3% in
2007.
-
Behavioural and social science can help us better design our
built environment and its transport system around users, and
allow technology to improve the lives of individuals and
society. For example, mostly for societal reasons, the
percentage of young people with driving licences fell between
1992 and 2014 from 48% to 29% among 17-20 year olds. This
trend of lower car use continues throughout their lives.
The report also considers four scenarios, one in which progress
continues incrementally, one where technology is allowed to
dominate, another where environmental and social issues take
precedence, and a fourth where less data sharing predominates.
None of these scenarios is absolute but choices will need to be
made to secure the right mix.
The report, published by the Government Office for Science, looks
out to 2040 and identifies areas in which society and government
face key choices to capitalise on the opportunities change
brings. It brings together evidence to inform the UK’s response
to a range of challenges and opportunities. It considers evidence
from a wide range of sources, through commissioning working
papers, to organising roundtables bringing together experts to
develop and test new ideas. While the report does not represent
government policy, it provides further evidence that will help to
inform the Future of Mobility Grand Challenge strategy. 
Notes to editors
-
A full copy of the Foresight Future of Mobility report can be
found at
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-of-mobility
-
The supporting materials for the report can be found at
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/future-of-mobility#evidence-reviews
-
The Government Office for Science:
-
Ensures that the  Prime Minister and government 
have advice based on world leading science and
innovation and that policies and decisions are informed
by evidence and strategic long-term thinking. 
-
Harnesses the power of scientists and engineers
across government, putting scientific evidence at the
centre of government thinking.  
-
Ensure the UK Government has a world leading science advice
mechanism and is an exemplar to the rest of the world.
