EPI: Analysis: Pupils in Wales level with those in England at a young age, but lag behind by age 14

• GCSE and international performance data both highlight the lower performance of Welsh pupils compared with English pupils in recent years.
• Children in Wales keep up with children in England at a young age, but fall well behind England and other UK nations by the age of 14.
• The gap between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged pupils in Wales is much wider than in England.
• Recent reforms mean English and Welsh GCSE systems are increasingly divergent. Universities and employers should fully reflect changes to ensure students do not lose out.

New analysis by the Education Policy Institute compares the performance of pupils in England and Wales.

While international comparisons are common in education debates, there is less focus on comparing countries within the UK. Authored by Luke Sibieta, this new paper considers how England and Wales differ in performance.

Both countries have reformed GCSEs in recent years. This analysis therefore considers GCSE performance at the last point before these reforms, and combines this with other more recent data, to build a picture of how the countries compare.
 

Performance by the end of secondary is lower in Wales than in England

• In 2012-13, before England introduced significant reforms to GCSEs, around 10 per cent fewer children achieved a grade C in English and maths in Wales than in England.
• Even after England introduced stricter measures to GCSEs in 2014, which reduced its overall performance, it still outperformed Wales.
• International tests taken by 15 year olds also find that pupils in Wales perform both below the OECD average and below pupils in England in reading and maths. England, on the other hand, scores around the OECD average.

• As well as having lower overall performance than England, the gap between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged pupils is also much wider in Wales.  

But children in Wales keep up with those in England until the age of 14

• At the ages of 3, 5 and 11, Welsh pupils in the Millennium Cohort Study score similarly to their English peers.
• However, these same pupils achieve lower literacy scores at ages 7 and 14.

What might be driving these trends?

• There are lots of potential explanations for these differences, which will be explored further in future research
• Higher levels of poverty in Wales will explain some of the difference, but a wider attainment gap between rich and poor pupils in Wales suggests this is unlikely to be a major explanation.
• England does have more pupils from minority ethnic groups, who tend to perform better at GCSE level. England has 30 per cent, in contrast to Wales’ 12 per cent.  
• Evidence suggests Wales’ abolition of school league tables reduced GCSE performance relative to England, but some of this might have come through greater incentives in England to use vocational qualifications to boost league table positions.   

England and Wales’ GCSEs are becoming increasingly distinct:

• Following reforms to qualifications and assessments, new, divergent GCSEs in both countries make it more difficult to draw comparisons over time, creating challenges for UK universities and employers when comparing the grades of English and Welsh pupils. 
• Regulators should continue to ensure that institutions and employers are aware of the latest changes, so that pupils in both countries are afforded equal consideration. Without clear communication of the recent changes, some students may face discrimination.

Commenting on the new analysis, Luke Sibieta, Research Fellow at the Education Policy Institute, said: 

“There seems little doubt that teenagers in Wales display worse educational outcomes than children in England. However, we also found evidence that younger pupils in Wales perform much better, equalling the literacy levels of pupils in England. It is important that policy-makers understand what might be driving the different performance gaps in different age groups.”