The Welsh Affairs Committee warns that lessons must be
learnt from the failures in planning and execution of the Great
Western electrification programme, and that future schemes must
clearly demonstrate value for money before getting the
go-ahead.
Investment in Welsh transport
There is a stark gap in funding between Wales and other parts of
the UK. The Welsh Government has said that 11 per cent of the UK
rail network is in Wales, but that since 2011 it has received
only 1.5 per cent of the money spent on rail enhancements. It is
also predicted that the economic boost of HS2 for England could
have the knock-on effect of reducing employment growth in Wales
by 21,000 jobs in the coming decades. The Committee concludes
that the decision of Virgin Media to relocate hundreds of jobs
from Swansea to Manchester has brought home these concerns.
The cancellation of the electrification figure has saved the
Government at least £433 million, though exact figures vary. The
UK Government should work with the Welsh Government to identify
and scope out cost-effective transport projects on which the
money saved could be spent. Along with Network Rail, they should
develop a revised route study for Wales and examine all options
for improving rail connections in South Wales.
Options for the Swansea to Cardiff line
As it stands, the electrification of the Swansea to Cardiff route
would not provide a significant improvement to journey times
unless the line was straightened, allowing trains to operate at
greater speeds. The cost and potential benefits of this work
should be investigated.
A more radical approach to reducing lengthy journey times between
Swansea and Cardiff is the Swansea Bay Metro: a proposed new
route via Baglan that would nearly halve journey times from 55
minutes to half an hour, and improve connectivity in underserved
locations along the route. This option should be explored in more
detail, and if initial investigations indicate the proposal is
viable, a full business case be developed.
Learning lessons
In June 2012 the predicted cost to upgrade the section of line
between Cardiff and Swansea was, according to Welsh Government
figures, £156 million. Yet by August 2016, the National Audit
Office placed the likely cost at £433 million. Planning work and
project management undertaken by Network Rail and the Department
of Transport was superficial, and lacked detail in vital areas.
Surveys did not provide an adequate picture of the work that
would need to be undertaken. Network Rail had failed to
anticipate which bridges along the route would need to be raised
to accommodate the required electrical infrastructure. The
Department of Transport did not develop a consolidated business
case for the Great Western modernisation programme until a year
after work had begun, and two years after new trains for the
route had been procured.
Network Rail and the Department of Transport have both indicated
that they are learning lessons from these failures and have
introduced new approaches to planning work. They must demonstrate
that these new processes are robust and minimise the risk of a
repeat in future schemes. The Government must review the
effectiveness of its new approach within 12 months and allow the
National Audit Office to provide independent scrutiny of how the
processes are operating.
Chair's comments
Publishing the report, Chair of the Committee, David T. C. Davies
MP commented:
"The failures in planning and delivery of the Great Western
line, and in particular the stretch between Cardiff and
Swansea, are well known. Projected costs and benefits were
completely out of sync with reality. Delays and watered down
proposals mean that even the introduction of much needed new
rolling stock has left a sour taste.
However we now must look forward from this point and work out
how we can improve Welsh transport after decades of
underinvestment. We have heard interesting proposals, such as
the Swansea Bay Metro, but it is essential that a full
assessment on the state of the South Wales network is carried
out, and any future plans properly costed and the true impact
understood. We must put an end to grand infrastructure projects
promising much and delivering little.
It is calculated that the cancellation of the rail
electrification between Cardiff and Swansea has saved the
Government hundreds of millions of pounds, and this money can’t
simply go back in the pot. Wales cannot have the only stretch
of the line not to be improved then see the money saved go
towards Crossrail 2 or the Northern Powerhouse. The money saved
must be spent here in Wales.
These decisions have a demonstrable economic cost to the areas
affected. We have just seen Virgin Media jobs moved from
Swansea to Manchester. When HS2 will see the journey time from
Manchester to London slashed to only one hour eight minutes,
while Swansea to London will be 2 hours, 45 minutes, it comes
as no surprise."
